1. GM Brandon Beane trading up, trading back or staying put in the first round?
This is a tough one to call, but with the 30th pick in the first round just about everything is on the table for the Bills. GM Brandon Beane and his personnel department will have to let the draft come to them sitting so low in round one to get a read on what talent could fall to them and what positions look most promising in offering the best value.
Draft analysts have suspected that there could be good value at the edge rusher position and at cornerback at the bottom of round one, but it's just a projection.
Beane indicated in his pre-draft press conference that they don't necessarily need to land a day one starter with their top pick.
"I think there's some guys we have on the board, where we're going, `This guy's one heck of a player, but he's not going to start Day 1, but we will count on him and maybe in a year he's going to be the starter,'" said Beane. "We'll have a player that's on the last year of their deal, and he'll kind of back up that player, learn from him, compete with him, but we don't necessarily expect him to start. We'll think long term more than short term. But we'll see how it goes. It'll be a good player."
If Beane doesn't like what's shaping up to be on the board when it's Buffalo's turn, a move from their spot at 30 could happen. Beane's history indicates he may consider a climb up the board. In the three drafts over which he has presided for the Bills he has usually traded up, having done so for Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds, Cody Ford and Dawson Knox.
There have been reports that the Bills are exploring opportunities to trade up into the early 20s in an effort to land Clemson RB Travis Etienne, but it would take a good deal of draft capital to make such a move.
Moving back from their pick at 30 is obviously another option, and over the last three years there has been an average of four trades between picks 20 and 32 in the draft as teams with high second-round picks often look to move into the bottom of round one to beat teams at the top of round two to a prospect they covet.
Even sliding back as few as five or six spots to pick 35 or 36 on day two could land the Bills an additional fourth-round pick, a round in which they currently do not have a selection.
"I do think Brandon Beane's phone could be ringing," said Pro Football Focus draft analyst Mike Renner of teams wanting to get into the bottom of round one. "I do think if the top tier of cornerbacks are off the board, I think you can get value and fill out the roster better by moving on to day two. I would endorse that wholeheartedly."
2. Atlanta's decision impacting QB needy teams like New England
Some see the Falcons pick at four as the first real pivot point in the draft. With three quarterbacks expected to fill the top three draft selections on the board, Atlanta could be the first NFL club that doesn't take a passer.
"All signs point to Kyle Pitts," said Pro Football Network draft analyst Tony Pauline. "I think a quarterback makes sense and has been part of the conversation all along. But from where we sit I think quarterback would be a bit of a surprise. And if they don't take Pitts it would be an even bigger surprise. They want to trade out, but I don't think anyone is going to give up the draft capital necessary to move up to the fourth pick in the draft."
That figures to trigger teams like the Broncos and Patriots to get on the phone to look for ways to climb the draft board, knowing Justin Fields and presumably Trey Lance are still on the board.
Knowing Cincinnati at 5 and Miami at 6 won't take a quarterback it will prompt teams like Denver and New England to find a trade partner in the top 10.
"The Patriots want a quarterback," said Pauline. "If they can't get one of the quarterbacks they like at the top of the draft they may move back to the bottom of round one and take (Stanford QB) Davis Mills. In my mock draft I have them taking Trey Lance from North Dakota State because I think the Niners take Mac Jones. But that pick at seven with Detroit is in play for New England to get the quarterback of their choosing."
It's been reported that New England has been in trade discussions with the Carolina Panthers about their pick at 8 in the event they wanted to make a move up the board.
That might spur Denver at pick 9 overall, and in the market for quarterback competition for Drew Lock, to try and move up the board to beat New England to the punch. And the Broncos do offer the Lions something that the Patriots can't, a pick that still sits in the top 10.
"If Detroit doesn't want to move as far down as New England, I could see them sliding back just to nine with the Broncos getting their pick at seven moving up two spots and taking Justin Fields," said Pauline. "They see him as a vastly more athletic version of Dak Prescott. They like Mac Jones, but probably won't get him, so after that they like Justin Fields."
Scroll through to view photos of the top prospects that draft analysts have projected the Bills to take with the 30th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State
The Bills could easily look to strengthen a strength with Rondale Moore or Trevon Moehrig, but grabbing a tackle here makes just as much sense. Radunz allowed only one quarterback hit in his last 17 college games and has the athleticism to make it happen outside. (PFF Eric Eager and George Chahroui)
RB Travis Etienne, Clemson
Now that the Bills have one of the most dangerous receiver corps in the league, time to inject some life into the run game. Etienne would be a great puzzle piece in an offense that craves speed in the backfield. Etienne doesn't have the speed of some of the fleet backs or wideouts who run Jet sweeps (he's a 4.44 guy), but the book on him is he cuts and fakes at top speed, which can make up for the fact that he has good but not transcendent speed. Plus, Etienne is very good in the screen game. He had 22 plays of 40 yards or more at Clemson, with a ridiculous 78 touchdowns in four seasons. I'm not a huge fan of rushers in the first round, but the Bills are in top-off mode: What player can they use to make a very good roster a tick better? And Etienne, combined with the great weapons already on the offense, would be a pretty great add to an offense that averaged 31.3 points a game last year. He'd be an extra headache for defensive coordinators to solve. (NBC Sports, Peter King)
Edge Jayson Oweh, Penn State
The Bills don't have many holes and can take the best player on their board. They could use some depth and youth at edge rusher, and get a big, freakish athlete in Oweh. He didn't play a ton at Penn State, but he can play on third downs as a rookie and learn from Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison. (Boston Globe, Ben Volin)
LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa
Collins can cover, shoot gaps in run defense and rush the passer. He'd fit nicely next to Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano at the second level and help shore up Buffalo's middle-of-the-pack pass rush. (ESPN, Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay)
RB Najee Harris, Alabama
Credit Bills GM Brandon Beane for building a fantastic roster with a legit superstar at QB in Josh Allen, making this one of the most difficult projections for me to make. I know Buffalo has spent Day 2 capital on running backs in each of the last two drafts, but I like Harris as an upgrade over Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, and he further supports the offense around Allen. (NFL Network, Rhett Lewis)
Edge Azeez Ojulari, Georgia
The Bills need help at edge rusher, and with no good corner on the board to tempt them, this is likely where they would look. (The Draft Network, Trevor Sikkema)
CB Asante Samuel Jr, Florida State
Buffalo has one of the best defensive backfields in the entire league, so this certainly isn't a position of need. But GM Brandon Beane is not one beholden to drafting for need. Samuel can play multiple positions -- corner, safety or nickel -- and is as fiery a competitor as you'll find. (NFL Network, Peter Schrager)
CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia
Caleb Farley and Tyson Campbell each had two votes, but Farley was already off the board to Arizona. I think the likelihood of this coming to fruition is trending down, but the projections do not reflect it yet. (CBS Sports, Josh Edwards)
Edge Joe Tryon, Washington
Tryon is long and physical. His preparation leading up to the draft has been exceptional, too. He will serve as a good running mate to Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison. (NFL Network, Charles Davis)
DT Christian Barmore, Alabama
Only five teams surrendered more rushing touchdowns than the Bills a year ago (21) and none of those clubs reached the playoffs. The 2021 defensive tackle class is below average, but most see the massive (and still ascending) Barmore as the best of the bunch. (Fox Sports, Rob Rang)
CB Ifeatu Melinfonwu, Syracuse
Melifonwu gives the Bills the lengthy, highly athletic cornerback it could use opposite Tre'Davious White. Serious competition for Levi Wallace. (CBS Sports, Chris Trapasso)
OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
This pick is about protecting the franchise quarterback and impacting the interior run game, which must improve if the Bills want to take the next step offensively. (NFL Network, Maurice Jones-Drew)
CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern
Buffalo has very few glaring roster holes but could use talent at the cornerback position. Newsome first the bill, pun intended, and would be a nice counterpart to Tre'Davious White on the outside. (The Ringer, Danny Kelly)
RB Javonte Williams, North Carolina
The Bills use their first pick to add to their stable of running backs. A bruising runner who averaged 7.3 yards per carry last season, Williams joins forces with current Buffalo backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. (CBS Sports, Bryan DeArdo)
CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
There are concerns over Farley's back surgery but some teams are in a position to compete now and might be willing to take on more of a risk. Buffalo is a team that makes sense to bring Farley in and plug him opposite Tre'Davious White. He is a top 10 caliber player. (CBS Sports, Josh Edwards)
DB Elijah Molden, Washington
Molden is a do-it-all defensive back who would do exactly that for the Bills. He can play safety, cornerback or nickleback for Buffalo. Think of him as an even more versatile K'Waun Williams. (NBC Sports, Dalton Johnson and Josh Schrock)
CB Kelvin Joseph, Kentucky
With an offense that appears loaded, defense has to be a priority for the Bills. They could look to upgrade their pass rushers, but corner is also a need, and Kelvin Joseph is a player that could contribute immediately.The Bills do not currently have a clear starter opposite Tre'Davious White, which would be an ideal role for Joseph. Conversely, it can often take corners time to develop, so the Bills may look to add a player that can help them push for the Super Bowl in 2021. (Pro Football Network, Ben Rolfe)
LB Joseph Ossai, Texas
Bringing in Matt Breida -- when the Bills already have Devin Singletary and Zack Moss-- doesn't necessarily keep them from drafting a running back, but it certainly should in the first round. So the pivot is from speed on offense to speed on defense. Penn State's Jayson Oweh fits the mold, but Ossai could be a big-time impact player for Buffalo. He is disruptive off the edge and flies around the field in run defense. Jerry Hughes is turning 33 before the 2021 season, so the pass-rush would benefit from depth. (ESPN, Mike Tannenbaum)
One thing to know:Ossai -- who led Texas in tackles for loss (20), sacks (5) and forced fumbles (3) in 2020 -- first saw a football game when he was 10 years old after arriving to the United States from Nigeria.
Edge Jaelan Phillips, Miami
There is a real argument to be made that Phillips should be the top edge defender in this class. Like all of the players competing for that title, Phillips isn't the Nick Bosa– or Chase Young-level prospect who comes with almost no red flags. The cause for concern with Phillips is that he medically retired from football before the 2019 season due to a history of concussions. The former No. 1 overall recruit coming out of high school opted to return to the field with Miami in 2020 and showcased his talent in that return. Phillips came away from last season with PFF grades of 83.0 or higher as a run defender and pass-rusher. This would be a strong addition for Buffalo to add some more youth behind what is currently an older edge rusher rotation with Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison penciled in as starters. (PFF, Ben Linsey)
OL Jackson Carman, Clemson
The Bills could use a running back, but it's not a first-round need with Zack Moss and Devin Singletary on the roster. They're set at wideout, so adding protection for Josh Allen makes sense. (SI.com, Michael Fabiano)
LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame
Even after re-signing Matt Milano, the Bills pick Owusu-Koramoah to be their big nickel defender. (CBS Sports, Chris Trapasso)
Edge Gregory Rousseau, Miami
A varied, devastating pass rusher, Rousseau can adapt to almost any scheme and make an impact. He's comfortable working from the outside and inside, giving the Bills a defensive tool to wreck havoc with. (SB Nation, James Dator)
IOL Landon Dickerson, Alabama
The ACL tears are concerning, but without them, Dickerson is a top-20 pick. The Bills don't need him Week 1; they need him come playoff time. Dickerson has played every offensive line position over his college career, and there's no more NFL-ready interior lineman in the class. He was the highest-graded center in the country last season. (PFF, Michael Renner)
CB Eric Stokes, Georgia
If a fifth cornerback sneaks into the first round it might just be Eric Stokes from Georgia, who has followed up a solid final collegiate season with a great run of testing. At the House of Athlete combine a few weeks ago Stokes posted a blazing 4.28 40-yard dash, and he backed that up with unofficial times of 4.28 and 4.30 at the recent Georgia pro day. The fit in Buffalo with the Bills could be ideal. Buffalo implemented a number of zone coverages last season, which could be perfect for Stokes as he acclimates to the pro game. He'll also be playing across from Tre'Davious White, one of the NFL's best at the position. Stokes sometimes struggles with shiftier receivers who have better change-of-direction skills, but Leslie Frazier could use White on those types of players if he wants to roll out more man coverage next season. (Touchdown Wire, Mark Schofield)
OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State
Teven Jenkins is nasty. The way he plays the game fits his new city very well. The Bills aren't a huge running team, of course, but they might start to lean that direction just a little more going forward. Adding a top tackle prospect is an excellent move for the Bills. (Pro Football Network, Matt Williamson)
3. More trades!!!!!
As popular as the discussion has been about the jockeying for quarterback prospects at the top of round one, there also figures to be some healthy shuffling in the middle of the first round.
With the top 10 selections expected to be largely offensive players, teams in the middle of the round will be jockeying to land the best defensive players in the class.
"I think we'll see teams moving around between picks 15 and 25," said NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah.
With several teams in that range of the draft in need of defensive talent Jeremiah and other draft analysts expect to see teams trying to leapfrog one another for premium scheme fits.
4. Cornerbacks coming off the board in high numbers
While it's widely anticipated that the top two cornerback talents in the draft, Alabama's Patrick Surtain and South Carolina's Jaycee Horn will be off the board within the top 15 picks, there isn't a clear cut indication on how quickly the rest of the cornerbacks believed to be in the top tier will come off the board.
What is clear is you designate as many as 16 teams picking ahead of the Bills as being in need of cornerback talent. That could precipitate a run on the draft's top cover defenders.
"I think Bills fans should absolutely concerned if they're hoping for a corner down at 30," said SI.com NFL draft analyst Connor Orr. "I think Patrick Surtain and Jaycee Horn are going to higher in the top half of the round. But then the second run probably starts at 22 with the Titans. They've been all over the cornerback market, and teams that could look at corner after that are the Jets, Steelers, Jaguars, Saints and Packers. The Bills may get lucky and one slips to them depending on scheme fits, but it's uncertain."
If the corners in that top tier are already off the board it could prompt the Bills to trade down and out of the first round unless there is quality value at one of their other perceived need positions (edge rusher, offensive line).
5. Limited information on prospects making the draft more unpredictable
With no NFL combine in this pre-draft process due to the COVID pandemic the most important missing piece for league personnel departments in the run up to the draft has been the comprehensive medical reports on more than 300 prospects.
"People aren't freaked out about the football side of the evaluation," said Jeremiah. "People are majorly freaked out about the medical stuff."
"It's not just about not having to combine, we have to remember that area scouts have not been on the road in the fall, to talk to the trainers and strength staff and get all these little details about who's really spending time in the weight room and who's spending time with treatment getting better and taking care of their body," said NFL draft analyst for 'The Athletic,' Dane Brugler. "So there are a lot of pieces of the puzzle that we usually have in a normal draft process that we don't have this year with the combine being the big one.
"They tried to supplement that with each prospect going to a local medical facility to get a full evaluation, and about 150 players have gone to Indianapolis here the last three weeks to get a more thorough evaluation with NFL doctors. But it's late in the process and I think it's fair to say we're going to see a lot of teams draft conservatively, and it's not just the medicals, it's the character stuff too."
That could hurt a super talented player like University of Miami pass rusher Jaelen Phillips, who on his ability alone would likely be a top 10 pick, but whose concussion history and brief retirement from football will give teams pause.
6. Teams could sacrifice late round picks to move up in early rounds
This is simply an issue of numbers. The 2021 draft class offers a significantly smaller pool of players. Last year, there were 1,932 prospects eligible to be drafted. This year there are 657.
It's due mainly to the NCAA granting an extra year of college eligibility to players due to the COVID-19 pandemic that disrupted the college football season. Many players who may have considered declaring for the draft returned to school for another year.
"We had so many kids go back to school," said Jeremiah. "That's what's going to impact the bottom half of the draft. That's why everybody that I talk to around the league just says, 'We don't know what the heck we're going to do without sixth and seventh round picks.'"
In a normal draft year with 1,800-plus prospects there is depth to the class that can make picks as late as rounds five and six valuable if your college scouting department is doing its due diligence.
But with the class so thin in terms of numbers it could prompt some NFL general managers to part with a good amount of their day 3 draft capital, especially if their draft board is all but dried up.
"You're going to see a bunch of teams trying to be aggressive in rounds two and three and they'll be parting with these day three picks like nothing," said Jeremiah.
Some GMs are hoping to convert those day 3 picks into draft capital for 2022.
"Next year's class, those sixth and seventh round picks are going to be really valuable," Jeremiah said. "A lot of those kids went back, so it's going to make next year's draft really, really deep."
