The Buffalo Bills (1-0) are 2.5-point underdogs heading into Thursday night's matchup against the Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Hard Rock Stadium. The game will air at 8:15 pm on Prime Video and WKBW in Buffalo.
Here's a list of additional notes for Thursday's primetime divisional clash ...
- Bills have won four straight games against the Miami Dolphins (including playoffs)
- Miami's Mike McDaniel is looking to become the fifth head coach all-time to lead his team to a 2-0 record in each of his first three seasons as a head coach
- Bills have won six consecutive regular season games - the longest active win streak in the NFL
- Bills are 14-2 (including playoffs) vs. Miami since 2017, Sean McDermott's first season as head coach
- Bills have won five straight games in Week 2
- Miami is 4-0 at home in Weeks 1-4 with Mike McDaniel as the head coach
- Josh Allen is 15-6 in his career in primetime games
- Tua Tagovailoa is 4-6 in his career in primetime games
- Bills are 21-5 including playoffs against AFC East teams since 2020 - the best division record in the NFL
Josh Allen has owned the Miami Dolphins in his career with an 11-2 record. That won't change in this one. It's always tough on the Bills playing in the heat, but this is a night game. Sure, it's on a short week, but the Bills will do enough on defense and Allen will win it late. He continues his mastery over the Dolphins.
Pick: Bills 28, Dolphins 24
Both teams needed second-half comebacks in Week 1. Buffalo will have to slow down Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who both cleared 100 yards in the opener. Can Greg Rousseau, who had three sacks in Week 1, disrupt that timing with Tua Tagovailoa? Josh Allen spread the ball out to a new group of receivers, and the Bills have a little more help in the running game with James Cook, who had 103 total yards. Miami is 1-4 S/U against Buffalo under Mike McDaniel, but the TNF stage makes it a true coin flip.
Pick: Bills 27, Dolphins 24
Bettors should keep an eye on the injury report for this matchup.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been practicing with a protective glove on his left hand. The team has already ruled out slot cornerback Taron Johnson.
Miami Dolphins tailback Raheem Mostert (chest) won't suit up, and his running mate De'Von Achane (ankle) will be a game-time decision.
Given the familiarity between these AFC East rivals, we will probably see a nail-biter Thursday.
Our crew split even on their picks for this contest, though O'Donnell went against grain on the recent history between these teams.
"Josh Allen owns the Miami Dolphins. In 12 career games, he is 10-2. Tua, meanwhile, is 1-6 in his career against Buffalo. The disparity is even more gorydamn daunting when looking at Allen's 33 TDs to seven INTs (and five rushing TDs) to Tua's six TDs to seven INTs in meetings between these division rivals." ...
Predictions
Davenport: Bills
Gagnon: Bills
Hanford: Bills
Knox: Bills
Michelino: Dolphins
Moton: Dolphins
O'Donnell: Dolphins
Sobleski: Dolphins
ATS Consensus: None
Score Prediction: Dolphins 27, Bills 24
The Dolphins are already limping at running back, and Allen is playing with a banged-up non-throwing hand. Look for Tua Tagovailoa to exploit a Bills defense that is soft in the middle without Matt Milano. We'll take the best pass rush, as the Dolphins will have a tough time bothering left tackle Dion Dawkins and Allen, who ranked second in EPA per dropback after Week 1 at 0.46 and third in passer rating at 137.7. The Bills' Greg Rousseau, meanwhile, had three sacks against the Cardinals and leads the NFL in defensive production rating among pass rushers. Old man Von Miller also looked like a problem again.
The pick: Bills
The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins have played in some incredible games during the last few years, and this is already an important matchup early in the season. Miami is a slight favorite at home, and it has had a ton of success in home September games under Mike McDaniel.
Meanwhile, Buffalo's defense looked rough out of the gate, and it will be without Taron Johnson on Thursday. But it has been extremely successful against the Dolphins with Josh Allen, winning 11 of their last 12 games.
Expect this to be a fairly high-scoring contest, but given the state of Buffalo's secondary, take the Dolphins to get the early-season win.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 27, Bills 24
The first week for both of these teams showed us areas of concern but also how resilient each can be under pressure.
Both mounted comebacks in different ways, with Josh Allen and the offense putting the team on their back, while the Dolphins relied behind their defense to shut down the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second half.
That gives us the intriguing potential of strength vs. strength when the Bills' offense is on the field and weakness vs. weakness when the Dolphins' offense has the ball.
However, it seems crazy to call a Dolphins offense that was among the top three in total offensive expected points added (EPA) last season a bad unit after just one game.
That is why I still favor Miami here. The offense should not be as bad as it looked in Week 1, while the Bills' defense is a complete unknown with all their changes.
The Dolphins are also 5-1 ATS when facing AFC East teams during September over the last three years, although that one failure to cover was a drubbing at the hands of Buffalo in Miami.
There is also the question of Allen's left wrist, which was heavily taped during the game. Now, it is not his throwing arm, so that removes some concern, but it could make him hesitant to use his legs, as well as nervous with bodies around him in the pocket if he cannot use that arm to brace when tackled.
The prime-time element in this game somewhat removes the heat factor, which should benefit the Bills.
There are too many unknowns here, so I am passing on the line but looking towards the under.
Each of the Bills' past three road games in Miami has gone under by at least 13 points, and all of the Dolphins' last five AFC East games in September have gone under.
Prediction: Dolphins 23, Bills 20
Joe Brady has his fingerprints all over this Bills' offense, as the shift to a run-heavy approach from this team after Ken Dorsey's firing in 2023 continues into 2024.
Josh Allen is a huge part of Buffalo's rushing attack, and he has fully made the transition to a more efficient passer who takes fewer chances. In total, Buffalo ran the ball 33 times in Week 1 against the Cardinals with only 23 pass attempts. Allen completed 78.3% of those attempts and averaged 9.7 yards per attempt.
This type of game plan bodes well against a Dolphins run defense I have questions about. Jacksonville gashed Miami for 4.9 yards per attempt and probably should have come away with the victory on the road had it not been for a goal-line fumble by Travis Etienne and a 20% third-down-conversion percentage throughout the game.
In Week 1, the Dolphins ranked 28th in the NFL in the percentage of runs deemed explosive (7.7%). That mainly why Miami gave up 2.69 yards per attempt after contact, which ranked 25th.
Furthermore, the Bills continue to make opposing passers look past their first read at one of the highest rates in the league, ranking second in that category during the 2023 season and 10th in the NFL last week against the Cardinals. It's why Tyreek Hill's two lowest yardage outputs in a single contest of each of the last two seasons came against Buffalo.
I am expecting the Bills to win on the road Thursday night.
Pick: Bills +2.5
