Week 17 marks Buffalo's final home game of the regular season. If the Bills secure a win over the Jets, they lock in the No. 2 seed.
Here's 5 things to know ahead of their matchup against the Jets.
😤1. A top 10 defense on deck for Buffalo's offense
Buffalo's offense is getting ready to face the sixth-best defense in the Jets. The group ranks top 10 in several statistical categories.
They're allowing an average of 310.1 total yards per game (6th), 5 yards per play (3rd) and 188.3 passing yards per game (5th). They've also allowed the lowest passing touchdowns this season with 14, are holding teams to an average of a 63% completion percentage (7th) and have 39 sacks (tied for 10th).
Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady isn't taking this 4-11 team lightly. Brady understands the talent they have on defense and their ability to keep games close.
"Throw the records out, it's a divisional game," Brady said. "It's going to be as tough as it gets. It's going to come down to the end. It's going to be great opportunity for us, right? It was a close one, close one when we played there. It'll be great environment. Have them at home this time, and we're gonna have to be ready for it."
One area the group has struggled in is forcing turnovers. They only have five interceptions (ties for 3rd least) and 13 takeaways (ties for 4th least) in 15 games.
The Jets defense is allowing an average of 22.9 points per game (15th), and they've allowed at least 30 points in four games this season.
👨🍳2. James Cook's hot hand
In the last four games, the Bills have been one of the best rushing offenses in the league. They've been averaging 173 rushing yards per game in Weeks 13-16, good for fourth-most in the NFL. The Ravens (3rd), Buccaneers (2nd) and Colts (1st) are the only teams above them.
Against the Patriots in Week 16, Buffalo leaned on the run game to help them in their victory. They rushed for 172 yards thanks to running back James Cook's impressive game. Cook had 100 yards on the ground and one rushing touchdown.
Cook has racked up 332 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns in the last four weeks – both rank top 10. The RB is averaging 7.4 yards per carry over that span, which is the best in the league.
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady believes Cook's seeing this success because he's pairing the important parts of the game together.
"You see the confidence that's now putting together with the knowledge and the understanding of the scheme," Brady said. "I've said this before, but he's understanding how offense linemen are approaching blocks versus certain fronts and defensive structures…he spends a lot of time with our offense line coach in these run game meetings and just making sure that he sees it the exact same way that we do."
In Weeks 13-16, Cook has four rushes of at least 20 yards (1st), seven rushes of at least 10 yards (ties for ninth), and a 100% 3rd down conversion rate (tied for 1st).
"He has that ability that once he gets to the second level, he can take it to the house," Brady said. "He's playing confidently. He's playing with a mindset, playing with physicality. When the balls in his hands, good things are happening, whether it's the run game or the pass game."
🧠3. Keeping a competitive mindset in the final 2 weeks
The Bills locked in their playoff spot weeks ago when they beat the 49ers 35-10 to clinch the AFC East. While they're already in the dance, they're still playing for seeding.
The No. 1 seed isn't in the picture anymore because the Chiefs locked it up on Wednesday with their win over the Steelers. Buffalo is still fighting for the No. 2 seed. If the Bills beat the Jets on Sunday, it's theirs.
When it comes to the idea of holding things back on offense, Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady explained he understands the sentiment but the goal is getting the highest seed possible.
"You fight that battle a little bit, but we're trying to win football games right now," Brady said. "There's a lot at stake, and we can't afford to let one slip."
To keep a competitive mindset in the final two weeks, Bills head coach Sean McDermott said setting short term goals are important.
"There's a lot of power in setting short term goals for oneself and also for, in this case, our team offensively," McDermott said. "We have things that we want to continue to work on and improve on. And that work is put in between now and the time we really get going here in the playoffs. You've got to be at your best come that first week in the playoffs for sure.
"So, there's no mulligans in the playoffs. Some of these areas that we're trying to get better at, we've got to be intentional about week to week here."
📈4. Improving 3rd down defense
While Buffalo's defense has been one of the best teams in the league at forcing takeaways, one area they want to improve in in the final two weeks of the regular season is their third down defense.
In Week 16 against the Patriots, the Bills allowed a 58.3% 3rd down conversion rate (7/12).
Bills defensive coordinator Bobby Babich says when it comes to correcting the issues, it starts with personnel.
"You talk about the third down windows, what the offense is doing in certain third down windows and then how can we best take our personnel to fit that potentially, what coverages, what pressures," Babich explained. "You can't lose sight of who you are. You can do a million things one time and not be good at any of 'em. So, certainly we're not where we need to be or where we want to be, and we're constantly looking to get that corrected."
On the season, the Bills are allowing a 44.4% conversion rate on third down. That ties for 29th in the league along with the Colts and Cardinals.
Babich said there have been moments in games where the group has done great on third down. Now, it's about turning those moments into a consistent effort throughout the entire game.
"There's glimpses in there," Babich said. "We got to find that. We got to capture it and just really pin down. We're looking at it constantly of what works for us, and then also keeping in mind the offense that we're going against."
Babich explained it's a combination of putting the players in a position to be successful and making sure the players understand how they're going to get attacked.
📊5. Milestones to watch for
With a win…
- Buffalo would be 13-3 for the third time since 2020.
- Buffalo would be 8-0 at home for the first time since 1990.
- QB Josh Allen will be 23-3 in December/January regular season games since 2020.
With 33 points scored…
- The Bills would set the franchise record for most points in a season.
With one rushing touchdown…
- QB Josh Allen would tie Hall of Fame running back Thurman Thomas (65) for the most rushing touchdowns in franchise history.
With two touchdowns…
- QB Josh Allen would join 4-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers (6) as the only players with 40+ touchdowns at least five times in their careers.
With 72 rushing yards…
- RB James Cook would have back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons.
With 23 receiving yards…
- WR Amari Cooper would reach 10,000 career receiving yards. Cooper would join two-time All-Pro Julio Jones as the only Alabama wide receivers to reach the milestone.
With 0.5 sacks…
- LB Von Miller would tie Ricky Jackson for No. 16 on the NFL's all-time sack list (128).
