The Bills are riding a five-game win streak and have scored at least 30 points in their last four games. Perfect timing to host a Week 11 contest against the AFC leaders in the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs. The game will be played at Highmark Stadium at 4:25 pm and will air on CBS.
Here are five storylines to follow ahead of Sunday's big matchup.
🏠1. Finally facing the Chiefs at home
We're all thinking it. The Bills are finally hosting the Chiefs in the regular season. Their last three meetings during the regular season took place at Arrowhead Stadium (2021-2023).
Buffalo is 3-0 against the Chiefs in those matchups. The Bills beat Kansas City in Week 14 (December 10) 20-17 in 2023. Kicker Tyler Bass hit a 39-yard field goal to give Buffalo a three-point lead with just 1:54 to play in the game. The defense followed it up by forcing a turnover on downs to give the Bills the victory.
The last time the Chiefs played the Bills at Highmark Stadium during the regular season was in 2020 when there were no fans in attendance due to COVID-19. Before that, Buffalo hosted Kansas City during the 2014 season. The Chiefs won that game 17-13 with Alex Smith as their quarterback, while Buffalo had Kyler Orton as its QB.
Sunday's game will air nationally on CBS at 4:25 p.m. EDT. CBS is also taking their pregame show on the road. NFL Today will broadcast the show from Lot 6 (outside the team store) at Highmark Stadium beginning at 12:00 p.m. EDT. Fans are also welcome to watch on-site.
😤2. How both defenses are getting it done
While the Bills and Chiefs each have their own superstar quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, their defenses have stolen the show at times throughout the season to help secure wins.
The Bills rank ninth allowing 19.3 points per game. What they're excelling at is their ability to force turnovers. Buffalo has 19 takeaways, tying for second-most in the NFL.
"We emphasize it all the time," defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said of why they've done it at such a high rate. "We talk about it, we show it, we celebrate it. We show opportunities that a team might present to where we can take the ball away…there's a lot that goes into it…we've been able to take it away at a pretty good clip."
Buffalo's defense has also been top 10 in the red zone limiting opponents to scoring touchdowns just 47.2% of the time (8th best). Red zone defense will be a huge factor when it comes to limiting Mahomes.
The Chiefs defense is known for their pass rushers and stingy run defense. They're allowing an average of just 83.2 rushing yards per game (3rd best) and blitzing teams at a top three rate. Thanks to their ability to limit teams on the ground, the Chiefs are allowing just 17.9 points per game (ties for 5th best).
Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady believes another thing that makes them top tier is the way they confuse opponents.
"He kind of makes it all look the same, whether it's a pressure or not a pressure," Brady said of Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. "(He) does a great job on disguises and these guys kind of fly around and they play confidently. I think when you watch any good defense on tape, you can just watch it on a silent tape, and you can tell that it's a good defense. It's going to be a great opportunity for us this week."
📈3. Two of the best in the second half
The Bills and the Chiefs have been hot in the second half. Eight of Kansas City's nine wins this season have been come from behind victories. Buffalo has trailed at the half in three of their eight wins this season.
Both teams rank top five in terms of outscoring their opponents in the second half. The Bills have a +77 point margin in the second half (2nd best) and the Chiefs have a +36 point margin in the second half (5th best). If you break this into quarters, Buffalo is soaring in the third quarter and Kansas City is one of the best in the fourth quarter. The Bills lead the NFL in the third quarter outscoring opponents by a combined 56 points. The Chiefs are fourth best in the fourth quarter outscoring opponents by 32 points.
Looking at the first half, both teams still rank top 15. The Bills tie for ninth best (+20 point margin) and the Chiefs are 11th (+16 point margin). But, in the first quarter teams are outscoring them. Buffalo has a -1 point differential in the first quarter (tied for 17th) and Kansas City has a -10 point differential in the first 15 minutes (20th).
Due to both teams being two of the best in the second half, it'll be important for Buffalo to take advantage of every single drive in the first half and get off to a fast start.
"Every drive is important," Bills head coach Sean McDermott said. "Every play's important against teams like this. Really every week, to be honest with you…you just never know the play that's going to make the difference."
McDermott says that type of mindset falls back on the standard they set at the beginning of the season.
"Every play is looked at as, 'Hey, did we play to our standard or did we not?'" McDermott said. "And all the guys know what that is. They're the ones that drive that, quite honestly. So that's the accountability that we share with one another."
🎯4. Beating the Chiefs through the air?
The Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the league allowing just 17.9 points per game (tied for 5th best) and 289.9 total yards per game (4th best).
"They've been the best defense in the NFL the last couple years," offensive coordinator Joe Brady said. "It's a credit to, you can see the natural shifts and how good of a job Spags (Steve Spagnuolo) has done, kind of transforming that defense and getting into the type of identity that they want to be, and they make it tough on all three downs."
If Buffalo struggles to get the run game going (Chiefs allowing 83.2 rushing yards per game), the best bet might be trying to beat the Chiefs through the air. That's one area where the Chiefs don't rank top 10.
Kansas City ranks 14th allowing 206.7 passing yards per game. They've also only grabbed five interceptions through nine games, which ranks in the bottom half of the NFL (ties for 19th).
ESPN NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky believes wide receiver Khalil Shakir will be an important factor on Sunday.
"You're just not going to line up against Kansas City and say, 'Hey, my guy is better than your guy,'" Orlovsky told One Bills Live. "That's just not real life against a defense that has the dominant defensive line that they do and the cats that can cover. I think Shakir's massive in this game. I think the more that you can get him matched up on some of the third and fourth cover guys the better.
"I say this with all due respect to Kansas City's defensive players, I don't think that those third and fourth cover guys are what they have been in the past. So, you can get after them a little bit in man coverage."
The Chiefs are allowing a 38.3% conversion rate on third downs, which also ranks in the bottom half. In the last three weeks, Buffalo has converted 40.3% of their third down opportunities (10th best).
🛌5. Gauntlet on deck
Get ready for the gauntlet. Buffalo has arguably its toughest stretch coming up over the next several weeks. They've got the AFC leaders in the Chiefs on deck. Thankfully, the Bills have their bye in Week 12 before taking on the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13 on Sunday Night Football. The 49ers are currently second in the NFC West.
In Week 13, Buffalo will head out to Los Angeles to face the Rams. The stretch ends with a tough road game against the Detroit Lions who currently lead the NFC. Those two games will be at 4:25 p.m. EDT.
