1. Mitchell Trubisky getting more buzz than QB prospects
INDIANAPOLIS - The quarterbacks very often take center stage and garner most of the headlines here at the NFL Combine. This year that is not the case. There doesn't appear to be a top 10 talent among this year's crop, similar to what we witnessed in 2013, when EJ Manuel was the first quarterback off the board at 16.
This year's less than stellar QB class has done nothing but increase the value and demand for Bills free agent QB Mitchell Trubisky. From the people we've spoken with in Indianapolis this week, the buzz on Trubisky is far greater than Pitt's Kenny Pickett or Liberty's Malik Willis.
Even head coach Sean McDermott has heard the buzz calling the chances of Trubisky re-signing with the Bills "unrealistic."
Knowing that Buffalo's quarterbacks room will be completely changed from that of last year with the exception of Allen. Jake Fromm was signed off Buffalo's practice squad by the Giants during the 2021 season. Then after Brian Daboll was named head coach, they signed Bills third string QB Davis Webb.
Trubisky will be the next signal caller out the door. Bills GM Brandon Beane knows he'll have some work to do at the position this offseason.
"That's an important position," Beane said. "We know the quarterback position is the ultimate in all sports. So, it'll be our job to find a suitable replacement assuming, you know, we're not able to get Mitch back. So yeah, we're going to look high and low. We'll look in free agency, we can trade, we could draft, we could do all the above. But we definitely need to find that piece, because we know how Josh plays. And as much as I always want Josh to get down, Josh sometimes sees the play all the way through and it's a 17-game season, so we'll definitely have to find the right answer there."
2. The need for speed
After Buffalo's Divisional playoff loss to the Chiefs, head coach Sean McDermott did acknowledge that even the most fundamentally sound defenses can still be beaten by elite speed and that they have to get out in front of it and match speed with speed.
McDermott and the Bills are not alone with that approach according to several insiders at the NFL Combine.
"It's sort of a philosophical change across the league where there's this move to get quicker, faster, lighter on all levels of the football field, whether it's offensively whether it's defensively there's the game is really predicated now on speed above anything else," said USA Today Touchdown Wire writer Mark Schofield. "How quickly can we get the ball to playmakers in space to let them operate after the catch? As a defense how quickly can you react to those kinds of players to tackle guys in the open field to pick up a guy like Stefon Diggs in the flat to be able to rally and make a tackle? And so, you're seeing that moving towards athleticism on both sides of the ball."
NFL Network's Analytics Contributor, Cynthia Frelund, in an appearance on the ‘Bills by the Numbers’ podcast pointed out one position where players are getting considerably faster and lighter.
"Linebackers are totally changing. There are coverage linebackers now where guys are expected to play basically like safety roles and sometimes, they even have to play nickel," Frelund said. "What's being asked of them is so diverse, that it's really changing that position quite substantially. It's a function of more pass catching tight ends, more tight ends that are used in multiple schemes, more of these different wide receivers so linebacker has had to really adapt."
And while linebacker might be leading the charge other positions are experiencing similar prerequisites.
"That trend to get lighter, faster, quicker on both sides of the ball will continue," said Schofield.
Scroll through to view photos of the top prospects that draft analysts have projected the Bills to take with the 25th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
WR Treylon Burks, Arkansas
The Bills could opt for a CB here, but Burks would be too tempting as a big addition to their offensive firepower. (NFL.com, Daniel Jeremiah)
LB Devin Lloyd, Utah
We've typically had the Bills targeting the secondary in recent mocks but it may be hard to pass on a player of Lloyd's talents here. Every linebacker not named Matt Milano has just one year left on their contracts -- including Tremaine Edmunds and A.J. Klein, and while Buffalo will no doubt re-up some of them, Lloyd has a chance to be special. (CBS Sports, Ryan Wilson)
CB Andrew Booth Jr., Clemson
Swap in Booth for impending free agent Levi Wallace, and the Bills secondary will be even better in 2022. (CBS Sports, Kyle Stackpole)
DT Devonte Wyatt, Georgia
The Buffalo Bills have made it clear that they prioritize investing in the defensive line and as things currently stand, Buffalo has two defensive tackles under contract for the 2022 season. Considering how much Sean McDermott likes to rotate his players up front, more talent is needed. Devonte Wyatt is an explosive penetrator that would wreak havoc next to Ed Oliver and provide the versatility needed to play over the center and as a three-technique. (The Draft Network, Joe Marino)
DE Arnold Ebiketie, Penn State
He had eight sacks among 52 QB pressures in 2021. Buffalo's aging D-line is poised to be stripped of its depth in free agency, but Ebiketie and 2021 rookies Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham could form a next-gen nucleus up front. (USA Today, Nate Davis)
WR Jahan Dotson, Penn State
With 32-year old Cole Beasley getting a bit old for the position and 34-year old Emmanuel Sanders slated for free agency (and also getting old), the Bills opt here to upgrade their already strong pass catcher corps. Dotson can play all over the formation, runs sharp routes, and perfectly complements the team's Stefon Diggs-Gabriel Davis duo. Getting more playmakers for Josh Allen can't be a bad thing. (The Ringer, Danny Kelly)
S Daxton Hill, Michigan
Hill is part of a Wolverines defense that could end up seeing three players go in Round 1 next spring. He's underrated nationally, but watch him play and it becomes clear pretty quickly that he's in the running for one of the best defensive backs in this class. He's listed as a safety but he can line up anywhere. (CBS Sports, Ryan Wilson)
WR Jameson Williams, Alabama
Jameson Williams has no business being available at No. 25, but after tearing his ACL in the National Championship Game he could go later than his talent level suggests. Should that be the case, his floor should be the Bills' pick.
I believe the Bills' biggest needs remain at the defensive line, but what Williams brings at receiver is exactly what Buffalo needs to keep its fastball and provide Josh Allen another dynamic weapon in the passing game. Williams is a sure-handed receiver with the ability to play outside and from the slot and features a dynamic vertical receiving skill set. He creates separation down the field and he pairs that with exceptional ball skills. (The Draft Network, Joe Marino)
OT Trevor Penning, UNI
Having had success in selecting fellow Northern Iowa lineman Spencer Brown, the Buffalo Bills tack on another one in Trevor Penning. Though he plays a violent game, the Bills can harness Penning's vicious nature with some coaching, and he would immediately improve their line. Penning gets after it in the run game, pancaking anyone in sight, while he also provides a relatively immovable base in pass protection. (Pro Football Network, Cam Mellor)
DT Jordan Davis, Georgia
Davis could very well go higher in the actual draft come April, but the 6-foot-6, 340-pounder's lack of pass-rushing prowess ultimately drops him to the back end of the first round in this mock. He managed only 30 career pressures in college and totaled just 14 in the 2021 season. Of course, his ability to two-gap and positively affect the run game every time he takes the field should ultimately draw interest in the first round. (PFF, Austin Gayle)
CB Trent McDuffie, Washington
Levi Wallace led Buffalo's corners in snaps played and will be an unrestricted free agent next month. Meanwhile, the team's top cornerback (Tre'Davious White) is recovering from a torn ACL. While you can never have too many talented cornerbacks, McDuffie could be off the board much earlier than this and would be a wise choice for the Bills. (SI.com, Kevin Hanson)
CB Kaiir Elam, Florida
The Bills lost Tre White to injury last season, and everything on defense looked a little bleaker afterward. Granted, this is still an excellent unit even without a stud opposite White. But Elam's size and physicality in Buffalo's scheme just makes sense. He'd give Buffalo more upside at the CB2 spot than they've had under Sean McDermott. (The Pewter Report, Jon Ledyard)
OG Kenyon Green, Texas A&M
Back-to-back Aggies see the Bills getting some interior line help. Green played every position on the offensive line this past season out of necessity, but his true position in the NFL is inside. A powerful blocker, Green can develop into a top-tier guard and help tremendously in the run game — assuming the Bills can find a way to stop relying so much on Josh Allen's legs. (SB Nation, James Dator)
EDGE Travon Walker, Georgia
The Bills need improvements along their offensive and defensive lines, and after drafting Greg Rousseau in Round 1 in 2021, they could go back to the D-line this year. Walker is a 6-foot-5, 270-pound project edge rusher who oozes talent. He has physical traits and length that NFL scouts look for, though he's still learning how to put everything together. He played mostly as a tight 5-technique for the Bulldogs, which means he didn't have many opportunities to rush the passer, but he has a high ceiling. He had six sacks last season. (ESPN, Jordan Reid)
CB Kyler Gordon, Washington
The Buffalo Bills were a coin flip in their favor away from hosting the AFC Championship Game but their defense could not secure a stop. Tre White's on-field presence was missed.
Kyler Gordon is a dynamic athlete with nice measurables. He can play inside and out with a versatile matchup profile. The Bills need a true CB2 and Gordon fits the bill (pun intended)! (The Draft Network, Damian Parson)
IOL Zion Johnson, Boston College
Johnson is one of my absolute favorite prospects in the entire 2022 NFL Draft. He looks like he was created in a lab to combat Aaron Donald. He's a monster. On the field, Johnson is an athletic freak who has the strength, flexibility, footwork, and range to be one of the best guards (or centers) in the league within his first few seasons. (The Draft Network, Bryan Perez)
CB Roger McCreary, Auburn
The Bills are a good football team without many glaring weaknesses. That said, Buffalo has an opportunity at No. 25 to consider a few players who might have the goods to walk into a great situation and still add value.
McCreary doesn't necessarily represent an immediate need for Buffalo, but he's an experienced player who held up well in the SEC. He's another player who had a nice Senior Bowl and could be on the rise. (The Athletic, Nick Baumgardner)
3. Receivers aplenty and ready to help now
Once again, the draft class will be offering a plethora of receiver talent. It's to the point over the last several years that a bounty of receiver talent has come to be assumed and the 2022 class is no exception.
"Eleven first round receivers the last two years and almost all of them have hit," said ESPN NFL draft analyst Todd McShay in an appearance on ‘One Bills Live.’ "And then the second rounders like Michael Pittman was I think like the 33rd or 34th pick a year ago. This first and second round has been outrageous at receiver and the league is getting spoiled again this year with the talent. I think I've got another six first rounders projected to go this year, which would make it 17 first rounders in a three-year span, which is outrageous. Wide receiver is loaded."
L.A. Chargers GM Tom Telesco, who has prepared for NFL drafts for the better part of the last 25 years, admits receivers are not only more plentiful, but the ones at the top of the board are producing right away too.
"It seems like there are more of them," said Telesco. "The way it is with receivers coming into the league you can get receivers in the second, third round, sometimes fourth that come in and play. I remember we had Reggie Wayne when I was in Indianapolis, and it wasn't that long ago, and it took him some time to get going. Receivers now are coming into the league and producing at a high level much earlier."
In McShay's opinion, this year's receiver class could produce quality prospects as late as day three.
"This guy Skyy Moore from Western Michigan. He's a player," said McShay. "He's going to be a third-round pick because there are six receivers in the first round and that backs up everybody else. Christian Watson from North Dakota State is a 6'3', 210-pounder and runs in the 4.3s. I know it's FCS, but he's just like five yards behind everyone. And he had a really good Senior Bowl week. David Bell from Purdue is like a slot jitter bug type. Wan'Dale Robinson from Kentucky, I'm convinced in this receiver class in the third, fourth round, there will be starters."
4. The book on DT prospect Jordan Davis
Bills fans are just one NFL fan base that has become enamored with University of Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis. A behemoth of a man at 6-6, 340 pounds, he's unquestionably the most massive nose tackle in the draft. But the concerns among NFL clubs that McShay has spoken to are about weight management and endurance on the field.
"If you're drafting Jordan Davis, you're going to get 25 to 30 of the best reps you could get, especially versus the run," McShay said. "In the passing game he's not going to get a lot of sack production. Maybe he's a four or five sack guy a year in the league, but he will push the pocket. He will get quarterbacks off the spot, and he will demand double teams at times because there are a lot of centers that just can't hold up. He's just too big. So, you need a little bit of help there. So, I love him when he's fresh. But you can't promise fresh.
"I know people in the program and how hard they worked to keep him under 350. It was a year-long task. And it took people watching him and all those sorts of things. He's just a naturally massive human being. He's a rarity, and when he's fresh he can run and can chase down running backs from behind. And so, you love the physical tools. And I don't want to tear him down. I love the player on the field, but the value of the pick. Is it worth the first-round pick?"
And if the Bills are considering a player like Davis to solidify their defensive interior, they'll have to weigh that value out and determine whether he is a three-down player worthy of a first-round investment.
5. More clubs leaning toward premium positions in round one
As analytics continue to play a role in the draft process more and more teams are leaning toward the perceived premium positions in round one of drafts. Those positions are cornerback, edge rusher, offensive tackle and quarterback.
A big reason why is if you hit on draft choices at those positions you get an enormous amount of cost control on your salary cap with a rookie contract for four years with an option for a fifth.
"Those premium positions cost a lot of money on the open market," said Telesco. "So, if you have a premium player at a premium position on a rookie contract for four years, that's really helpful. Drafting a left tackle financially in a salary cap system is much more efficient than trying to get one in free agency where you're spending over $20 million a year on a tackle. So those are the positions between left tackle and corner and pass rusher. You'd like to get those in a draft if you can. There are other positions that you can handle on the salary cap if you have to go out and free agency and get that. That's the thought process behind them plus the fact that the premium positions are usually hard to find. So usually, you have to take them up high. You're not going to find a lot of franchise left tackles in the fourth round."
There will always be exceptions to the premium positions in round one, but CB, Edge, OT and QB will continue to be popular choices if the value matches in round one.
