1. Draft analyst believes there will be CB options for Bills at 30
The greatest intrigue surrounding Buffalo's first pick in the draft at 30 is trying to determine what will still be on the board when it's the Bills turn to make a selection. Despite the groundswell of reports on the Bills being interested in a running back in round one, Pro Football Network draft analyst Tony Pauline believes that better options will exist for GM Brandon Beane.
"I think Najee Harris will be off the board," Pauline said in an appearance on ‘One Bills Live’ this week. "I think he's going to the Steelers at 24. Travis Etienne could be a good fit there, but there will be decent running backs later on in the second part of day two. Michael Carter from North Carolina, Trey Sermon from Ohio State, Khaleel Herbert from Virginia Tech. You can get a good running back later on in day two.
"It's just a matter as to whether a defensive player is staring them in the face at pick 30 that's too great a value to pass up. I don't think they'll have good edge rush value there, but I do think they'll have some cornerbacks to think about at that spot."
Scroll through to view photos of the top prospects that draft analysts have projected the Bills to take with the 30th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State
The Bills could easily look to strengthen a strength with Rondale Moore or Trevon Moehrig, but grabbing a tackle here makes just as much sense. Radunz allowed only one quarterback hit in his last 17 college games and has the athleticism to make it happen outside. (PFF Eric Eager and George Chahroui)
RB Travis Etienne, Clemson
Now that the Bills have one of the most dangerous receiver corps in the league, time to inject some life into the run game. Etienne would be a great puzzle piece in an offense that craves speed in the backfield. Etienne doesn't have the speed of some of the fleet backs or wideouts who run Jet sweeps (he's a 4.44 guy), but the book on him is he cuts and fakes at top speed, which can make up for the fact that he has good but not transcendent speed. Plus, Etienne is very good in the screen game. He had 22 plays of 40 yards or more at Clemson, with a ridiculous 78 touchdowns in four seasons. I'm not a huge fan of rushers in the first round, but the Bills are in top-off mode: What player can they use to make a very good roster a tick better? And Etienne, combined with the great weapons already on the offense, would be a pretty great add to an offense that averaged 31.3 points a game last year. He'd be an extra headache for defensive coordinators to solve. (NBC Sports, Peter King)
Edge Jayson Oweh, Penn State
The Bills don't have many holes and can take the best player on their board. They could use some depth and youth at edge rusher, and get a big, freakish athlete in Oweh. He didn't play a ton at Penn State, but he can play on third downs as a rookie and learn from Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison. (Boston Globe, Ben Volin)
LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa
Collins can cover, shoot gaps in run defense and rush the passer. He'd fit nicely next to Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano at the second level and help shore up Buffalo's middle-of-the-pack pass rush. (ESPN, Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay)
RB Najee Harris, Alabama
Credit Bills GM Brandon Beane for building a fantastic roster with a legit superstar at QB in Josh Allen, making this one of the most difficult projections for me to make. I know Buffalo has spent Day 2 capital on running backs in each of the last two drafts, but I like Harris as an upgrade over Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, and he further supports the offense around Allen. (NFL Network, Rhett Lewis)
Edge Azeez Ojulari, Georgia
The Bills need help at edge rusher, and with no good corner on the board to tempt them, this is likely where they would look. (The Draft Network, Trevor Sikkema)
CB Asante Samuel Jr, Florida State
Buffalo has one of the best defensive backfields in the entire league, so this certainly isn't a position of need. But GM Brandon Beane is not one beholden to drafting for need. Samuel can play multiple positions -- corner, safety or nickel -- and is as fiery a competitor as you'll find. (NFL Network, Peter Schrager)
CB Tyson Campbell, Georgia
Caleb Farley and Tyson Campbell each had two votes, but Farley was already off the board to Arizona. I think the likelihood of this coming to fruition is trending down, but the projections do not reflect it yet. (CBS Sports, Josh Edwards)
Edge Joe Tryon, Washington
Tryon is long and physical. His preparation leading up to the draft has been exceptional, too. He will serve as a good running mate to Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison. (NFL Network, Charles Davis)
DT Christian Barmore, Alabama
Only five teams surrendered more rushing touchdowns than the Bills a year ago (21) and none of those clubs reached the playoffs. The 2021 defensive tackle class is below average, but most see the massive (and still ascending) Barmore as the best of the bunch. (Fox Sports, Rob Rang)
CB Ifeatu Melinfonwu, Syracuse
Melifonwu gives the Bills the lengthy, highly athletic cornerback it could use opposite Tre'Davious White. Serious competition for Levi Wallace. (CBS Sports, Chris Trapasso)
OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
This pick is about protecting the franchise quarterback and impacting the interior run game, which must improve if the Bills want to take the next step offensively. (NFL Network, Maurice Jones-Drew)
CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern
Buffalo has very few glaring roster holes but could use talent at the cornerback position. Newsome first the bill, pun intended, and would be a nice counterpart to Tre'Davious White on the outside. (The Ringer, Danny Kelly)
RB Javonte Williams, North Carolina
The Bills use their first pick to add to their stable of running backs. A bruising runner who averaged 7.3 yards per carry last season, Williams joins forces with current Buffalo backs Devin Singletary and Zack Moss. (CBS Sports, Bryan DeArdo)
CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
There are concerns over Farley's back surgery but some teams are in a position to compete now and might be willing to take on more of a risk. Buffalo is a team that makes sense to bring Farley in and plug him opposite Tre'Davious White. He is a top 10 caliber player. (CBS Sports, Josh Edwards)
DB Elijah Molden, Washington
Molden is a do-it-all defensive back who would do exactly that for the Bills. He can play safety, cornerback or nickleback for Buffalo. Think of him as an even more versatile K'Waun Williams. (NBC Sports, Dalton Johnson and Josh Schrock)
CB Kelvin Joseph, Kentucky
With an offense that appears loaded, defense has to be a priority for the Bills. They could look to upgrade their pass rushers, but corner is also a need, and Kelvin Joseph is a player that could contribute immediately.The Bills do not currently have a clear starter opposite Tre'Davious White, which would be an ideal role for Joseph. Conversely, it can often take corners time to develop, so the Bills may look to add a player that can help them push for the Super Bowl in 2021. (Pro Football Network, Ben Rolfe)
LB Joseph Ossai, Texas
Bringing in Matt Breida -- when the Bills already have Devin Singletary and Zack Moss-- doesn't necessarily keep them from drafting a running back, but it certainly should in the first round. So the pivot is from speed on offense to speed on defense. Penn State's Jayson Oweh fits the mold, but Ossai could be a big-time impact player for Buffalo. He is disruptive off the edge and flies around the field in run defense. Jerry Hughes is turning 33 before the 2021 season, so the pass-rush would benefit from depth. (ESPN, Mike Tannenbaum)
One thing to know:Ossai -- who led Texas in tackles for loss (20), sacks (5) and forced fumbles (3) in 2020 -- first saw a football game when he was 10 years old after arriving to the United States from Nigeria.
Edge Jaelan Phillips, Miami
There is a real argument to be made that Phillips should be the top edge defender in this class. Like all of the players competing for that title, Phillips isn't the Nick Bosa– or Chase Young-level prospect who comes with almost no red flags. The cause for concern with Phillips is that he medically retired from football before the 2019 season due to a history of concussions. The former No. 1 overall recruit coming out of high school opted to return to the field with Miami in 2020 and showcased his talent in that return. Phillips came away from last season with PFF grades of 83.0 or higher as a run defender and pass-rusher. This would be a strong addition for Buffalo to add some more youth behind what is currently an older edge rusher rotation with Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison penciled in as starters. (PFF, Ben Linsey)
OL Jackson Carman, Clemson
The Bills could use a running back, but it's not a first-round need with Zack Moss and Devin Singletary on the roster. They're set at wideout, so adding protection for Josh Allen makes sense. (SI.com, Michael Fabiano)
LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame
Even after re-signing Matt Milano, the Bills pick Owusu-Koramoah to be their big nickel defender. (CBS Sports, Chris Trapasso)
Edge Gregory Rousseau, Miami
A varied, devastating pass rusher, Rousseau can adapt to almost any scheme and make an impact. He's comfortable working from the outside and inside, giving the Bills a defensive tool to wreck havoc with. (SB Nation, James Dator)
IOL Landon Dickerson, Alabama
The ACL tears are concerning, but without them, Dickerson is a top-20 pick. The Bills don't need him Week 1; they need him come playoff time. Dickerson has played every offensive line position over his college career, and there's no more NFL-ready interior lineman in the class. He was the highest-graded center in the country last season. (PFF, Michael Renner)
CB Eric Stokes, Georgia
If a fifth cornerback sneaks into the first round it might just be Eric Stokes from Georgia, who has followed up a solid final collegiate season with a great run of testing. At the House of Athlete combine a few weeks ago Stokes posted a blazing 4.28 40-yard dash, and he backed that up with unofficial times of 4.28 and 4.30 at the recent Georgia pro day. The fit in Buffalo with the Bills could be ideal. Buffalo implemented a number of zone coverages last season, which could be perfect for Stokes as he acclimates to the pro game. He'll also be playing across from Tre'Davious White, one of the NFL's best at the position. Stokes sometimes struggles with shiftier receivers who have better change-of-direction skills, but Leslie Frazier could use White on those types of players if he wants to roll out more man coverage next season. (Touchdown Wire, Mark Schofield)
OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State
Teven Jenkins is nasty. The way he plays the game fits his new city very well. The Bills aren't a huge running team, of course, but they might start to lean that direction just a little more going forward. Adding a top tackle prospect is an excellent move for the Bills. (Pro Football Network, Matt Williamson)
2. Will Josh Allen's growth change the way NFL GMs grade QBs?
Josh Allen's rise to MVP-level quarterback in his third NFL season leads many NFL observers to wonder if his success will prompt more NFL talent evaluators to grade quarterback prospects differently going forward.
'The Ringer's' Danny Heifetz posed that exact question in his most recent column. After examining all the elements that went into making Josh Allen a better quarterback for the Bills, he consulted with former NFL quarterbacks, quarterback coaches and draft analysts. Here is an excerpt of his conclusion.
Could Allen inspire teams to take risks on inaccurate quarterbacks in the hopes they can strike gold? Should teams rethink their approaches entirely and treat accuracy as something that can be learned?
Both of those things are a lot harder than they sound. Former NFL staffer and University of Wisconsin QB Nate Tice believes Allen came into the NFL with a lot of room to grow, but that his circumstances are not replicable.
"Usually a guy drafted in the first round like this, their feet are going to be pretty damn tight," Tice says. "Trevor Lawrence has perfect footwork. Justin Fields has pretty good footwork. These guys have good footwork already. So once they get to the NFL, there's going to be some more consistency, a little bit of improvement, but you aren't going to see much accuracy growth from footwork improvement."
Mike Renner, the lead draft analyst at Pro Football Focus, says Allen's development changed the way he judges quarterback prospects—to a degree. He's now willing to give greater looks to flawed players who have higher-end upside. But Renner also points to Christian Hackenberg and Drew Lock as cautionary tales of teams chasing quarterbacks with big arms and big frames despite accuracy issues. Both players were second-round picks. Hackenberg flamed out of the league without ever playing a down, while Lock finished dead last in completion percentage last season. (Sound familiar?) Looking at Allen's rise as proof that a player like Lock—or a future prospect with accuracy issues—can succeed may be missing the forest for the trees.
We have a tendency as football observers to assume that whoever a player becomes in the NFL is who they were always going to be. The reality is every prospect has a range of outcomes, and both landing spot and coaching—along with individual growth—help determine how good or bad a player becomes. Allen seems to have landed in the perfect situation to hit the high end of his potential. But perhaps if he'd gone third overall to the Jets in 2018 and been coached by Adam Gase, you would not be reading this story.
"A lot of guys come in with his profile," Renner says. "Not a lot of guys have turned into Josh Allen."
3. Charles Davis goes pass rusher for Bills in his final mock
NFL media analyst Charles Davis released his final mock draft this week and picked a defensive end for the Bills with the 30th overall selection in round one.
Davis picked the giant University of Miami defensive end who opted out in 2020 after a 15.5-sack season in 2019. He chose Hurricanes pass rusher Greg Rousseau. Here was his reason for the pick.
30. Buffalo Bills – DE Greg Rousseau – University of Miami
Buffalo invests in the pass rush with a former Hurricane who has enticing upside.
Perhaps most interesting is Davis had only two edge rushers come off the board before Rousseau at 30. He had Michigan's Kwity Paye to the Giants at 11 and Miami's Jaelen Phillips to the Dolphins at pick 18.
