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'His case is as strong as it's ever been' | Former NFL QBs share why Josh Allen is deserving of the 2024 MVP Award

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The chase for the 2024 NFL MVP has been one of the most fascinating storylines to follow this season.

Bills QB Josh Allen, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Eagles RB Saquon Barkley, among others, are all deserving of this year's award, with each having historic seasons in different fashions. But only one will be crowned as the league's Most Valuable Player.

Allen has helped Buffalo exceed preseason expectations, produced in clutch moments and has the stats to back it all up.

Let's dive into Allen's MVP case and why former NFL quarterbacks believe Allen is deserving of the award.

Exceeding expectations

Going into the 2024 season, the Bills were not looked at as a sure-fire playoff team by the national media. Many thought that the offseason departures on both sides of the ball, including WR Stefon Diggs, WR Gabe Davis, S Micah Hyde and S Jordan Poyer, among others, would be difficult to overcome.

Analysts on NFL.com, as well as odds on mainstream betting sites, tabbed either the Dolphins or the Jets as the most likely team to win the AFC East prior to the start of the season. Fast forward a few months and the Bills are division champs for a fifth straight season with a 13-4 record.

Buffalo clinched the AFC East with five games still remaining in the regular season; it's the earliest a division champ has been crowned since the 2009 Colts.

During NFL Gameday Morning in Week 18, Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner picked Allen as his 2024 MVP, admitting that he didn't think the Bills would even make the playoffs coming into the year.

"The MVP is a figurehead for what you've done as a team," Warner shared.

Warner wasn't alone this season in his preseason evaluation of the team. While the Bills have shown the ability to be a complete football team this season, ranking 2nd in points scored and 11th in points allowed, Allen has been the main catalyst over the course of 17 games.

"Just all the certain uncertainty that surrounded the team in general, Allen has been one of the constants over this run," former QB Ryan Fitzpatrick told BuffaloBills.com, who's now a studio NFL analyst for Amazon Prime. "Josh has allowed his team to exceed expectations this year."

This season, the Bills tied an NFL record with eight consecutive games of 30+ points scored and became the first team in NFL history with 30+ pass TDs and 30+ rush TDs in a single season.

Former NFL QB and 2016 MVP winner Matt Ryan shared during CBS' Week 18 pregame show that his opinion on the MVP race has changed in recent weeks.

"Now that we've gotten the entire sample size, I'm going to go with Josh Allen," Ryan said.

While Ryan doesn't have a vote, he said after taking into account what it means to be the most valuable player to your team, that Allen is deserving of this year's honor.

"I think it's Josh Allen given what he's done with that team, given the expectations for that offense coming into the season," Ryan said.

MVP Moments

Stats and box scores often don't tell the full story of a player's contributions. The best athletes shine in the biggest moments. Allen did that multiple times this season, most notably against the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions.

"The MVP is a little bit about moments," said former Bucs QB Chris Simms and Football Night in America analyst on The Dan Patrick Show. "And Josh Allen had a stretch there of moments."

Allen delivered arguably the most clutch play of the 2024 NFL season with his 26-yard TD run against the Chiefs on 4th and 2, ending Kansas City's bid for an undefeated season. CBS play-by-play announcer Jim Nantz described it as "The Play of the Year".

A few weeks later, Allen led the Bills to a season-high 48 points in their 48-42 win over the Lions. In that win, Allen became the first player in NFL history with 35 or more passing + rushing TDs in four consecutive seasons.

"The quality of play in clutch moments. I don't think anyone has stood above Josh Allen in that department," Simms said.

Allen produced 747 total yards, 6 total TDs and was not sacked in those two performances. Buffalo is the only NFL team this season to defeat both 1 seeds in the AFC (Chiefs) and NFC (Lions).

"He was the difference maker in those two games, against the Chiefs who are the best team in the AFC and then knocking out the Lions, who are the best team in the NFC," Fitzpatrick said.

Allen also has a number of historic single game performances to his name this season. In Buffalo's division-clinching 35-10 win over the 49ers, Allen became the first quarterback to have a passing, receiving and rushing touchdown in the same game.

The jaw-dropping play of Allen's throw to WR Amari Cooper, the lateral from Cooper back to Allen, and Allen's diving effort across the pylon will be shown on highlight reels for years to come.

A week later, Allen became the first player to record 3 passing and 3 rushing touchdowns in the same game. His 424-yard, 6-TD showing on the road against the Rams was nearly enough to come back from a 17-point fourth quarter deficit.

Former NFL QB and current ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky said on One Bills Live that while cumulative statistics are important, it's equally as important to watch the games and judge how a player impacts each matchup.

"You have to watch every single snap and how it looks and evaluate how much value that person brings," Orlovsky said. "I do think (Allen's) case for MVP is as strong as it's ever been."

Exceeding your team's expectations, performing at your best in the biggest spots and having the stats to back it up are all part of why Allen is every bit deserving of the praise this season.

The Stats

Don't let anybody fool you: Allen's cumulative stats are still MVP-worthy and among the league's best, despite Ravens QB Lamar Jackson owning the advantage in a few categories. From Week 1 to Week 18, Allen has performed at a historic rate.

It started in the season opener as Allen recorded his 4th-career game with 2+ pass TDs & 2+ rush TDs, tying with Hall of Fame QB Steve Young for the most ever. Allen's season culminated in Week 17 with a 3 touchdown performance (2 pass, 1 rush) to clinch the No. 2 seed.

In the 40-14 win over the Jets, Allen tied Thurman Thomas (65) for the most rushing touchdowns in franchise history and became the first player in NFL history with 40+ touchdowns in five consecutive seasons.

In between, Allen marveled on a week-by-week basis, guiding the Bills to their 3rd 13-win season since he came into the league. Allen's 6 games with 2+ passing TDs and 1+ rushing TD are the most in single season in league history. You can find a weekly breakdown of his 2024 achievements here.

There's also one key distinction this season that's different from all of his other NFL seasons. Allen threw just six interceptions this season, the fewest of his seven-year career. He was also sacked a league-low 14 times.

Tom Brady said earlier this season that this is the best version of Josh Allen we've ever seen.

"He's played spectacularly and everybody sees the spectacular plays that he makes, but what he's doing a good job of this year is not turning the ball over," Brady said on FOX during one of their pregame shows.

He added, "Becoming a great quarterback in the NFL isn't about thinking you can make every play, it's about how do I get my team to win each and every week… he's got a great touchdown to interception ratio, he's mitigated a lot of risk this year by his style of play."

There's also several advanced analytics that shed more light on the kind of impact Allen is having on this season.

Prior to Week 18, when Allen played just one series against the Patriots, the Bills averaged 3.0 points per drive. Only three NFL offenses since 2000 have been as successful on a per drive basis.

Those teams are the 2007 Patriots, 2018 Chiefs and 2020 Packers, led by QBs Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, respectively. Each QB went on to win the Most Valuable Player.

With Allen and Jackson figuring to be the two candidates most in contention for the award, some believe the honor could come down to each team's overall success this season.

"I just think right now, I would go by the record," former Pro Bowl QB and current CBS analyst Tony Romo said during the Bills-Jets game. "One has less losses, one got the No. 2 seed. So that guy, if it's this close, winning and losing gives (Allen), barely, the edge."

The winner of the 2024 NFL MVP will have earned it, no matter which player takes home the hardware. Allen, Jackson and Barkley are all every bit deserving of one of the league's cornerstone awards. But many former QBs believe Allen has done enough to win.

"His ability to get the team in the end zone, his ability to have them as the second highest scoring offense in the NFL, especially with the expectation coming into the season. That's why he is my MVP," said Ryan Fitzpatrick. "I think he means more to his team this year than anybody else."

Take a look at the best photos of Josh Allen from 2024 Training Camp all the way through Week 18!

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