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What They're Saying

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What they're saying | Record predictions + more for the Bills' 2024 regular season

Reid Ferguson, Josh Allen and Terrel Bernard. Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears, Preseason, August 10, 2024 at Highmark Stadium.
Reid Ferguson, Josh Allen and Terrel Bernard. Buffalo Bills vs Chicago Bears, Preseason, August 10, 2024 at Highmark Stadium.

With Josh Allen, experienced veterans and several young additions on a newly retooled team, the Bills have been flying under the radar heading into the 2024 season.

What are some national analysts predicting for the four-time defending AFC East champions? Here are some of the projections from some of the top reporters in the NFL.

Jason Katz picked the Bills to win the AFC East once again, despite their new-look offense, just beating the Jets who he predicted will have a 10-7 record.

"Even with a makeshift group of pass catchers, Allen is talented enough to will this team to the top on his own. Fortunately, the Jets are still able to sneak in via a Wild Card spot."- Katz

Will Brinson sited that the Bills have lost some key pieces, but Joe Brady's play-calling fits the weapons that are on this team. Brinson also believes that Josh Allen will have a "toss-the-team-on-my-back" season and the Bills will go 10-7 as a result.

"The combo of Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir with the potential for a massive breakout from Dalton Kincaid gives this offense a lot more upside than people are giving it credit for. Sean McDermott's noted this might be the best OL of his tenure in Buffalo… but I still trust McDermott to get the most out of this group."- Brinson

While the Bills are projected to get 10 wins in ESPN's projections, they currently only have a 43.6% chance to win the AFC East in this model. Khalil Shakir is also entering his third season and is coming off a strong 2023 campaign that saw him come on strong late.

"This projection is mostly based on playing with the second-best quarterback in the league in a wide receivers room that is otherwise quite lacking. But Shakir has proved himself to be a solid player, with a top-36 overall score in our receiver tracking metrics in each of his two NFL seasons."- Walder

Nate Davis picked the Bills to finish second in the AFC East behind the Jets and to get the fifth seed in the Wild Card round. Davis recognizes the tough schedule that the Bills face while simultaneously going through this new era of offense.

"Though WR Stefon Diggs wasn't a major component of that hot finish, Buffalo will have to carry on without him, WR2 Gabe Davis and quite a few former key players the team just couldn't afford to keep. And the Bills better adapt to their new reality by midseason because, between Weeks 9 and 15, they'll face just one team that didn't reach postseason in 2023 – and that apparent reprieve is a Week 11 trip to Indy. Maintaining their divisional eminence might be too much to ask of QB Josh Allen and Co. in the midst of this adjustment period."- Davis

NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal was the lone vote that picked the Bills to represent the AFC and win the Super Bowl over the Detroit Lions.

"In a battle of franchises that have never won the big one, Josh Allen bowls over Levi Onwuzurike at the goal line with 17 seconds left for his MVP moment."- Rosenthal

In their win total projections after running 10,000 simulations, Austin Mock calculated an expected win total for every team and asked the experts if their win total was too high, too low, or just right. Joe Buscaglia believes that this win total is just right for a team that will miss Matt Milano and the type of roster turnover that they had, along with a tough schedule.

"A team led by Josh Allen in his prime should always be taken seriously. I'm sure, even with several questions about the Bills in 2024, Allen is why they have the AFC's fourth-highest win total. But the questions are legitimate. The defense could take a real step back due to cap-cleaning offseason turnover and a long-term injury to linebacker Matt Milano… The Bills could struggle with a tough early schedule, but don't rule out a second-half surge once all the new pieces jell just in time for the playoffs."- Buscaglia

"But if the Bills are to make the playoffs with a new-look roster and one of the toughest schedules in the league, it will be because Allen, who has had phenomenal seasons before, has his best season yet. That would be enough to win MVP."- Sikkema

Here's a look at the 53 players named to the Bills roster. This gallery is presented by SnapDragon Apples.

"Josh Allen seems to be more determined than ever to get the Bills where they want to go."- Florio

David Helman believes that even though the Bills lost Matt Milano, that they will be able to figure it out with their young talent and Josh Allen under center.

"Training camp didn't do much to change my opinion that the Bills will be fine. They even lost Matt Milano this summer, and I still trust them to figure it out. A big part of that is having Josh Allen under center. Allen needs to be great, and he needs one or two of his young skill players to step up. I trust all that to happen."- Helman

The Bills may still be atop the AFC East, but Gary Davenport from Bleacher Report believes that the gap between the Bills and the Dolphins and Jets has narrowed this season and the gap between the Bills and Chiefs has widened with some of the losses that this roster has faced in the offseason.

"Any team led by Josh Allen is going to be a tough out. But in a loaded AFC, Davenport wonders if the Bills lost one player too many this offseason."

"The Bills are still obviously a playoff contender and may well still be the class of the AFC East… The gap between the Chiefs and Bills looks to have widened. The gap between the Bills, Dolphins and Jets has narrowed."- Davenport

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