Author's note: This story has been updated following the Bills' 24-22 win over the Chargers
The day before Christmas Eve was a joyful one for the Buffalo Bills as they beat the Chargers 24-22 and temporarily moved into an AFC Wild Spot following the Bengals' loss to the Steelers.
With Cincinnati's loss, Buffalo now controls its own destiny: win the final two games and they are assured a playoff spot.
The rest of the Week 16 slate is still important as the Bills can continue to secure their hold on a Wild Card spot and even get closer to a shot at winning the AFC East.
Here's a full look at the AFC Playoff race and who Bills fans should root for in Week 16 using the New York Times Playoff Machine.
Where the Bills stand
Record: 9-6 (6th in AFC)
Chance of reaching playoffs: 80%
Chance of winning the division: 40%
AFC Playoff Picture entering Week 16
- Baltimore Ravens (11-3)
- Miami Dolphins (10-4)
- Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6)
- Cleveland Browns (9-5)
- Buffalo Bills (9-6)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
In the Hunt
- Houston Texans (8-6)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
- Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)
- Denver Broncos (7-7)
NFL Wild Card tiebreaker rules:
- Head-to-head, if applicable.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
- Strength of victory in all games.
Browns (9-5) at Texans (8-6) | Sunday, Dec. 24 at 1 p.m. on CBS
Who to root for: Root for the Browns
Why: The Bills' highest priority is to secure a playoff spot and a Texans loss is the simplest way to help that.
Yes, a Texans win could still be beneficial in some scenarios particularly when looking at Week 18 matchups: Browns at Bengals & Texans at Colts. Those games could be elimination matchups for the loser of both, depending on Week 16 and 17 results.
But with the Browns holding a 92% chance to make the postseason, it would take a lot for Cleveland to lose hold of a Wild Card spot, compared to the Texans who have a 51% postseason chance.
A Texans loss would increase Buffalo's playoff chances to 85% and decrease Houston's playoff chances to 33%. In this scenario, the Bills would move ahead of the Texans in the AFC. A Texans win and they are still ahead of the Bills going into Week 17.
That's why we're rooting for the Browns in this one.
Colts (8-6) at Falcons (6-8) | Sunday, Dec. 24 at 1 p.m. on FOX
Who to root for: Root for the Falcons
Why: The Colts are surging at 4-1 over their last five games but the Falcons remain just one game back of the NFC South division lead.
A Colts loss would increase Buffalo's playoff odds to 84%. In this scenario, the Bills would move ahead of Indianapolis in the AFC. If the Colts win, they would still be ahead of the Bills going into Week 17.
Cowboys (10-4) at Dolphins (10-4) | Sunday, Dec. 24 at 4:25 p.m. on FOX
Who to root for: Root for the Cowboys
Why: From Week 15 enemies to Week 16 friends, life changes fast in the NFL. The Bills still have a legitimate chance to win the AFC East and a Cowboys win this week would go a long way to keeping those chances alive.
Mathematically, the Bills need to win in Week 17 vs. the Patriots AND have the Dolphins lose ONE of their matchups (DAL, BAL) for the Bills to have a chance to win the division in Week 18.
A Dolphins loss in Week 16 would increase Buffalo's playoff odds to 85% and increase their odds of winning the division to 50%.
Patriots (3-11) at Broncos (7-7) | Sunday, Dec. 24 at 8:15 p.m. on NFL Network
Who to root for: Root for the Patriots
Why: A Broncos loss here to drop them to 7-8 all but eliminates them from playoff contention with so many 8-6 teams still in the mix. It's also important because the Broncos still own a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bills if they both end the year with the same record.
A Broncos loss would increase Buffalo's playoff chances to 88%.
Games that could matter for divisional seeding
Root for the Bucs (7-7) to beat the Jags (8-6) on Sunday and root for the Raiders (6-8) to beat the Chiefs (9-5) on Christmas Day.
These games don't have a ton of impact on the Wild Card of AFC East race but they could still be beneficial for playoff seeding if the Bills win their division. If the Bills win the AFC East and have the same record as the Chiefs, they'll own the tiebreaker for the better seed. And the Jags dropping to 8-7 would also help the Bills for seeding purposes if Buffalo wins the division.
Worst Case Scenario
A Texans win + Colts win + Dolphins win + Broncos win would decrease Buffalo's playoff chances to 69%. In this scenario, Buffalo would be the 8th seed in the AFC going into Week 17.
Best Case Scenario
A Texans loss + Colts loss + Dolphins loss + Broncos loss would increase Buffalo's playoff chances to 90%. In this scenario, the Bills be the 6th seed in the AFC going into Week 17.
