👍1. Playoff Allen is different
Josh Allen has put together another 40-touchdown season in 2024. He's the only quarterback in league history to do it in five consecutive seasons. No other signal caller has ever done it more than three times (Drew Brees 2011-2013). And as productive a touchdown maker as Allen has been in the regular season, his play in the postseason has been even better.
Josh Allen owns the best touchdown-to-interception ratio (5.25) in NFL playoff history and is one of five quarterbacks all-time with a passer rating of 100 or better (Mahomes, Rodgers, Ryan, Warner).
The Buffalo signal caller has also averaged the most offensive yards per game (330.2) and offensive touchdowns per game (2.7) in the playoffs in NFL history. He has 21 passing touchdowns against just four interceptions and his 1.1 interception percentage in the postseason is the best among quarterbacks with 10 or more playoff starts in the Super Bowl era.
Since Allen first appeared in the playoffs in 2019, no other quarterback in the league has rushed for as many yards as the Buffalo field general (579), not even Patrick Mahomes, who has played in six more playoff games than Allen.
Allen's five rushing and one receiving touchdown in the postseason since 2019 also leads all quarterbacks in the playoffs over that span.
Broncos head coach Sean Payton is all too aware of Allen's dual-threat ability.
"Obviously there are a lot of challenges. He's had an MVP season. The first key, if you're trying to slow him down or get him off schedule, is obviously taking away the primary read," Payton said. "The challenge is his size and strength. You can spy him, but he's one of those guys that has this stiff arm that just keeps you at bay. Those big, physical-type athletes can create and stay on their feet. There was a run he had last year in the postseason that was something. Coverage during the second act. The first act is the five-step, seven-step, the three-step [drop back]. The second act is the unscripted. That's key."
In 10 career playoff games Allen has totaled at least 250 combined passing and rushing yards in each of his past seven playoff starts. On Sunday against Denver, Allen can tie Pro Football Hall of Famer John Elway (eight consecutive games), Joe Flacco (eight) and Aaron Rodgers (eight) for the fourth-most consecutive playoff games with at least 250 combined passing and rushing yards in NFL history.
💪2. Strength on strength
There are plenty of intriguing matchups in Sunday's Wild Card playoff between the Bills and Broncos, but few measure up to the battle at the line of scrimmage between Buffalo's offensive line and Denver's defensive line.
The best unit two years running in preventing sacks against this season's league leader in sacks as Denver finished with 63 quarterback takedowns.
"It starts at the line of scrimmage for both clubs," said Bills right tackle Spencer Brown. "They have a good group. We have a good group, and that's kind of what you want in the playoffs. That's kind of what gets teams to the playoffs is your 'bigs' up front playing well."
Broncos defensive coordinator, Vance Joseph has found ways to consistently get one-on-one matchups up front with his pressure packages believing one of his top three pass rushers will win and get home, and more often than not they have.
Led by OLB Nik Bonitto and his 13.5 sacks, six players on the roster have at least five sacks to top the league. Fellow OLB Jonathan Cooper is second with 10.5.
"It's an elite defense," said ESPN NFL analyst, Dan Orlovsky in his weekly appearance on ‘One Bills Live’ of Vance Joseph's unit. "Their defensive front is fantastic. Jonathan Cooper is outstanding. Nik Bonitto is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Zach Allen on the inside. I think it's a really good matchup."
"They rush well as a unit," said Brown. "They've got some younger guys who got their feet wet, and they added Jonathan Franklin-Myers from the Jets. I respect them a lot. All across the board they have guys who can come in, they rotate, they can do whatever fronts they want to adapt, and they do it well."
With cornerbacks Patrick Surtain and Riley Moss on the back end, Joseph is comfortable making man coverage calls leaving him with at least five to rush the passer in obvious passing situations.
"When they play man defense, they put five guys across the line of scrimmage, and they're just trying to create those one-on-ones versus your offensive line and they're so good up front, you can't just focus on one guy, because Jonathan Cooper, who plays opposite Bonitto, is outstanding, and then inside is Allen. And so, as an offensive line, I think that's one of the most fascinating parts about this game.
"It's always fun going up against a team that prides itself with its play up front," said Bills RG O'Cyrus Torrence. "This is a good matchup up front for us to go out there and show why we've been so competitive up front this year. We like to put the game on our shoulders. No matter how good we think the other team may be in certain areas we just always put it on us to do our job. And if we do our job, and we have great communication, we've got a great chance to win."
Buffalo's offensive line has surrendered just one sack in their last seven games.
🐎3. Nix not playing like a rookie
While Bills QB Josh Allen has been receiving major consideration for the league's MVP award, Denver QB Bo Nix has put himself firmly in contention for Offensive Rookie of the Year. With 33 total touchdowns and a passer rating of 93.3, the Oregon product doesn't play like a rookie signal caller.
"He's the real deal now," said Bills defensive coordinator, Bobby Babich of Nix. "Not only can he hurt you with his arm, he can hurt you with his legs. I think he's a smart player. I think he's a poised player. You see it's not too big for him. What you've seen as the season has gone on is a maturation process like any rookie would have to where the game slowing down for him, and he's more in control and has more command of the offense."
Nix has won AFC Offensive Player of the Week twice this season, including Week 18 when he led a 38-0 shutout performance of the division rival Chiefs, who were resting several key starters passing for 321 yards and four touchdowns. He was also the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Month for October this season.
With just 100 fewer rushing yards than Josh Allen, his playing style has drawn comparisons to the Bills quarterback.
"(Chiefs defensive coordinator) Steve Spagnuolo actually said going into the Week 18 game, he said, 'When I see Bo Nix run, I see some flashes of Josh Allen,'" said Underdog Fantasy senior NFL reporter and Bleacher Report NFL insider James Palmer in an appearance on ‘One Bills Live.’ "Now, I think Josh is a unicorn in terms of how he runs the football. I don't think there's a comparison out there, but Bo Nix is the Broncos third leading rusher. On rushing plays over 20 yards, the Broncos have 10 for the season. Bo has six of the 10. I mean, he is an explosive runner. He's got a quick twitch to him. He's tied for the team lead in rushing touchdowns. He will tuck it and go and that is the part that you're going to have to account for."
"You can't think that you're just playing some rookie quarterback," said Orlovsky of Nix, who came into the NFL with more than 60 collegiate starts. "Bo Nix has played a ton of football in his life, and he really hasn't had a moment this year that he has looked overwhelmed. He's handled a lot of this season really well, and he's only developed and grown under Sean Payton and (quarterbacks coach) Davis Webb throughout this year. They try to take their chunk shots when they feel the opportunities present themselves. He's aggressive with the football. He checks it down when it's not there. He uses his legs. He's an efficient player."
Buffalo's defense hopes to make the Denver defense one dimensional by putting the Broncos in long down and distance situations, so their pass rush can heat up the Denver quarterback.
"I feel like you just hit him early. Hit him early. Hit him often," said Bills DE A.J. Epenesa. "He is a rookie and it's his first time in a playoff game. First time for a lot of things. We'll just try to make it hard for him."
In Sean McDermott's tenure as head coach of the Bills, he is 11-4 against rookie quarterbacks including playoffs and counting last week's throwaway game in New England that Buffalo lost 23-16 with backups in the lineup. The collective quarterback statistics of those rookie starters is a 57 percent completion percentage, 10 touchdown passes, 21 interceptions and a passer rating of 62.
☠4. Beware of the screen game
While the Broncos offense will get aggressive in the red zone, between the 20s they rely on some quick hitting passes to move into scoring territory. With just one proven weapon who can win consistently in Courtland Sutton, the Broncos instead get the ball in the hands of their other skill position players quickly in space to gain yards after the catch.
To do so, they've made heavy use of the bubble screen and tunnel screen game to manufacture passing yards.
"It's going to be interesting to see how Buffalo handles some of their perimeter screens," said Orlovsky. "This is a really big perimeter screen offense, and they've got young players like a Marvin Mims, who has a lot of returner skills that they just try to get the football into his hands out in space, and he's really good at it."
The Broncos ran the fifth-most screen plays this season with 126 and tied with Buffalo for second in the league in touchdowns off screen plays with eight during the regular season.
"They use their guys for what they're good at," said Bills nickel CB Taron Johnson. "Sean Payton does a good job with that. So, we just need to have an awareness of those guys and make sure they can't beat us on those plays."
Denver also tied for second-most turnovers on screen plays with four (3 INTs, 1 FL), so Buffalo's takeaway artists on defense might have some 'punch out' opportunities.
💨5. Detroit reprise?
With a defense as solid as Denver's front to back, it's hard to uncover any weaknesses on the unit. But if there is a vulnerable part of the Broncos defense, NFL analysts believe it's their inside linebackers in coverage.
"The one weakness is the linebacker spot on the inside, and we know the way Buffalo can attack the middle of the field," said Palmer. "I think that's an issue for this Denver defense."
While Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid figure to draw nickel corner and safety coverage, the Bills passing game could take a page out of their game plan from the Detroit game in Week 15 when their backs exploited mismatches against the Lions' defense.
"I think the Bills' backs matter a ton, but more in the pass game than in the run game," said Orlovsky. "James Cook and (Ray) Davis and Ty Johnson are very good pass-catching backs. All three of them have had moments this year where they've kind of won the game in that regard. And if you had to ask me, the one area that I think that you can get after Denver's defense the most through the air it's actually at their backers."
Cook, Davis and Johnson have combined for eight receiving touchdowns this season, and in the game plan against in Week 15 they feasted on Detroit linebackers to the tune of eight receptions for 156 yards and a touchdown in their 48-42 victory.
"If you have watched throughout the season and watched this Denver defense play, the teams that have had success throwing the football against them have really worked their linebackers in coverage and gotten the ball to their backs in the pass game. Some teams have used perimeter screens, some have just gotten the ball in their backs' hands, and some have actually built their backs into the progression of the pass concept. So, I think this is a big throw it to the backs game for Buffalo."
