❄️ 1. How 38 inches of snow altered Buffalo's weekly practice schedule
The Bills had a different practice week than normal due to 38 inches of snow that fell beginning Wednesday night and lasted until Friday morning. Due to the volume of snow, the Bills had to cancel what would have been a padded practice on Thursday afternoon.
Bills head coach Sean McDermott said they made the most of the day by holding meetings on Zoom.
"Some players who needed treatment or just wanted to come in on their own, they came in," McDermott said. "Most of them, I would say 90%, once we got the message out to them, stayed where they were at home. So, we were able to meet, looked at them in the eye over Zoom, and just made sure that they were all good…the players had meetings with their sides of the ball and special teams, lasted a few hours."
McDermott said they had hoped to get the team in later that afternoon but chose the safest option for everyone knowing that some of the new players hadn't driven in snow before.
"It kind of lessened a little bit, the intensity," McDermott said of the snowstorm. "So, we thought maybe we'd get a chance to get them in and then just decided it wasn't safe enough to try to get them in. So, with all the workers out there trying to clear the roads and do their jobs, felt like it was best to keep them where they were at home…the coaching staff, some of the other staff as well made it here and tried to do as much planning and film work as we could."
The team did get into the building on Friday to hold a practice before they head to Detroit on Saturday. McDermott said they made some changes to their Friday to make it resemble a longer practice day.
"We've added a walkthrough this morning, so more of a Thursday style daily schedule," McDermott said of the changes. "And then the practice schedule, we'll expand some of the reps a little bit just because this is really our first, our only real practice we'll have this week."
🦁 2. What to expect when the Lions have the ball
The Lions boast the top scoring offense in the NFL and will be a handful to defend against for Buffalo. One of the keys to the Lions' success this season has been their balance. They rank 4th in passing yards per game (243.8) and 4th in rushing yards per game (151.1).
Detroit's offense lines up under center more than any other team in the NFL, averaging 37.8 snaps per game in that formation. They run the fewest plays per game in shotgun (26.9).
Sticking with that formula is something Lions could use to attack Buffalo's defense. In Week 14, the Rams ran 43 plays from under center. That ranked 2nd among all NFL teams last week, Detroit ranked 1st with 47 plays in their win over Green Bay.
Buffalo also lines up in zone coverage on 72% of their defensive snaps this season, the 9th highest rate in the league.
"You could make the argument that the Lions are better than the Rams at attacking zone coverage," said NFL Films senior producer Greg Cosell on One Bills Live this week. "Ben Johnson, the Lions' offensive coordinator, is maybe as good as anyone in the league in terms of spacing and routes, route combinations."
While last week's performance against the Rams wasn't up to their standard, the Bills still rank 7th in yards per target allowed in zone coverage (7.4) and tied for 1st in yards allowed per reception (9.8) in zone coverage, according to PFF.
Additionally, the Lions use play-action at the highest rate in the league (12.2 plays per game) and QB Jared Goff leads the NFL in passing yards per game using play-action under center (110). Detroit has run play-action 16 times or more in each of their last three games.
Buffalo can gain an advantage defensively if it is able to slow down Detroit's run game/play-action attack and force them into a more traditional drop back passing game.
"You have to at least contain the run game, that's the critical piece," Cosell said.
All 10 of Goff's INTs this season have come against zone coverage.
🦬 3. What to expect when the Bills have the ball
Buffalo's offense, led by MVP candidate QB Josh Allen, also has plenty of matchup advantages when they have the ball. The Bills have scored 30+ points in seven consecutive games and in 10 of their 13 games this season.
The Lions play man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (42.4%) and Allen ranks 2nd in the league in TDs (18) when facing man coverage. Allen has also generated 18 plays of 20+ yards against man coverage, tied for 2nd among all QBs.
Even with Buffalo's distinct advantage against man coverage, Greg Cosell doesn't expect Lions DC Aaron Glenn to deviate from their identity.
"(Glenn) is not all of the sudden going to abandon what he does, because I think that's who they are… I don't think they are going to back off playing man coverage," Cosell said.
Buffalo will have to be ready for the blitz as well, as Detroit sends an extra rusher at the 4th-highest rate in the league. Cosell anticipates the Bills offensive line will be up for the challenge as they've allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL (13).
Since joining the Bills, WR Amari Cooper has been Josh Allen's favorite target in man coverage. In five games with Buffalo, Cooper has racked up 175 of his 231 yards when facing man-to-man coverage and is getting targeted on 27.4% of Allen's dropbacks in those situations, per PFF.
Rookie WR Keon Coleman is next with a 25.7% target rate vs. man coverage and leads the Bills WRs with 194 yards receiving on those routes, despite missing the last four games with a wrist injury. Coleman practiced fully all week and does not carry an injury designation heading into Sunday.
The Lions allow the 10th most passing yards per game (224.7) and Cosell believes Bills OC Joe Brady can create matchup advantages for Buffalo's WRs if he calls concepts that can beat man coverage.
"Joe Brady is critical in this game with what he calls in certain situations as far as man-beater concepts," Cosell said. "You've got to create stacks, rubs, motions. You've got to do all that stuff to beat man."
👀 4. An opportunity at corner
Bills head coach Sean McDermott ruled out cornerback Rasul Douglas for Sunday's game against the Lions due to a knee injury he suffered against the Rams. The head coach hasn't announced who will start in Douglas' place but two players who may get the opportunity are cornerbacks Kaiir Elam and Ja'Marcus Ingram.
Elam's only start this season came in Week 9 against the Dolphins in place of cornerback Christian Benford. Elam registered five total tackles, one tackle for loss and had one fumble recovery in that victory.
The CB said his mindset to prepare for an opportunity this week has been no different than past weeks. The third-year player who's appeared in 10 games this season kept the same sense of urgency and will be ready to go if his name is called.
"I didn't do anything different," Elam said about his preparation. "I just stayed in my process and my routine. Really every week, I just try to prepare like a starter, like I'm going out there on the first rep until the end of the game."
Ingram hasn't made a start this season but has played in 13 games. When his number has been called this season, the third-year player has made some big plays. Ingram had a big-time pass breakup in the fourth quarter of Buffalo's Week 1 game against Arizona to help secure the 34-28 victory. The next game, the cornerback grabbed two interceptions, one of which he returned for a touchdown against Miami. It didn't stop there because in Week 3, Ingram had his first career sack against Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Like Elam, Ingram said he prepares like a starter every week.
"I kind of prepare like I'm that, like I'm already the starter," Ingram said about his prep this week. "And so, it's easy for me to play the game in my head, I do it weekly. Even when I'm not in the game, just playing the game in my head, getting what the call is, seeing what formations and stuff that they come out in. And just actually seeing myself in that role, so it kind of makes it easier to get in the game."
Having made multiple game-changing plays already this season, Ingram said that helps with his belief in himself.
"It gives me a lot of confidence," Ingram said. "I was even reflecting on that yesterday, just thinking about what I've done to get to this point. And also reassuring myself that I can play at this level, and I can make plays so that gives me a ton of confidence that I know I can go out there and ball."
🔥5. Two of the top 4th down and red zone offenses
Buffalo and Detroit are two of the best teams in the league when going for it on 4th down and when both offenses are in the red zone.
The Bills are tied for 1st in the NFL in 4th down success rate (86.7), converting 13 of their 15 attempts. The Lions are 15 of 22 on 4th down (68.2), good for 6th-best; they converted 4 of their 5 attempts in Week 14 against the Packers.
Buffalo and Detroit are 5th (68.5%) and 6th (67.3%) respectively in red zone TD scoring rate.
However, the Bills have the advantage in this area over the last three games, converting their red zone drives into touchdowns on 90.9% of their chances. Against Kansas City, San Francisco and Los Angeles, the Bills were 10 of 11 in the red zone.
Detroit has been successful at a slightly lower clip than their season average over their last three games, going 9 of 14 (64.3%).
