đ1. Blitz Josh Allen at your own risk
Josh Allen was not called upon to do a whole lot in the passing game in Buffalo's Divisional Playoff win over Baltimore. He threw for just 127 yards, a playoff career low in the 27-25 victory, though he did run for a pair of touchdowns. It's anticipated that Allen will be required to do more against the defending Super Bowl champions in Kansas City today, especially after he had 40 pass attempts in the Bills' Week 11 victory over the Chiefs (30-21).
In that game Kansas City defensive coordinator, Steve Spagnuolo, blitzed Allen on almost 38 percent of his drop backs, and in some instances turned to zero blitzes sending six rushers. It was in stark contrast to how they played him in the Divisional Playoff the season before. In that game, Spagnuolo dialed up blitz calls on just 18 percent of Allen's drop backs, the lowest blitz rate by the Chiefs in two seasons.
So, what should Allen expect this time around in a road atmosphere at Arrowhead Stadium?
The Chiefs blitzed at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL this season (35.6%) according to NextGen Stats, and pressured opponents successfully more than 44 percent of the time, which ranked 10th best in the league. When they didn't blitz, they generated pressure just a bit over 26 percent of the time, which ranked 30th in the NFL. That wide ranging difference in generating pressure between blitz and non-blitz was the second largest disparity in the league (18%).
ESPN NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky in his weekly appearance on âOne Bills Liveâ felt Buffalo's heavy use of pre-snap motion helped them in identifying and having answers for Kansas City's blitz scheme back in Week 11. But that game was at home. On the road, it's not as easy to utilize all that motion and communicate effectively due to crowd noise and other factors.
"They have to figure out if they can operate in that capacity on the road," said Orlovsky. "And if they can't, then assemble a new plan. And what is going to be the answer? Is it going to be a little bit of tempo? Is it going to be a little bit no huddle? Obviously, being really good on early downs minimizes the amount that Kansas City can get into their blitz packages. But if you can continue to control the line of scrimmage, you can minimize some of the pressures you'll see."
In the Week 11 game, the blitzing by the Chiefs proved relatively effective as Allen completed just 8-16 passes for 108 yards, a touchdown and an interception with a 66.7 passer rating. Kansas City generated pressure on the Bills quarterback on blitz calls just over 47 percent of the time in that game.
Over the course of the season, however, Allen has been particularly good against the blitz putting up a 123.2 passer rating, good for third-best in the NFL. He also ranked second in the league this season with 16 touchdown passes against the blitz.
Kansas City's defense is coming off an eight-sack performance in their Divisional Playoff win over Houston, with DE George Karlaftis responsible for three of them. But Houston's offensive line is not considered to be the same caliber as Buffalo's. The Chiefs have also moved All-Pro DT Chris Jones out on the edge to rush the passer from a defensive end position of late, especially on third downs. He's tallied five sacks this season rushing off the edge.
Allen has been sacked just 1.3 times per game in the Bills' eight matchups with the Chiefs, the fewest among the 24 quarterbacks who have made four or more starts against a Spagnuolo-coached defense. And Kansas City did not sack him a single time in the Week 11 matchup.
đ2. One possession pros
Some might be surprised to learn that the Bills with all their point scoring prowess this season as the second-highest scoring team in football, still had nine games this season (counting playoffs) decided by one possession. Buffalo went 6-3 in those games counting the throwaway game in New England in Week 18 (L: 23-16).
The Chiefs, however, are experts in pulling out one possession games. In fact, the Chiefs led the league in one-possession wins this season with 11. Counting playoffs, Kansas City has won each of their last 16 one-possession games marking the longest winning streak in one-possession games in NFL history.
Four of those wins this season were by less than three points, with three of them coming in their last 10 games. Four of the victories came on the final play of the game this season, three game-winning field goals as time expired and a walk-off Kareem Hunt rushing touchdown in overtime against Tampa Bay.
Former Chiefs OL Mitchell Schwartz, who now covers the team, explained on âOne Bills Liveâ this week how Kansas City's championship pedigree has cultivated a comfort level in the Chiefs when they're in tight games with time running out.
"You can't sit here and say the Chiefs had the cleanest 15-2 regular season of all time," said Schwartz. "There are a lot of games that could've been won by double digits that they could've put away in the fourth quarter. They had the field goal block at the end against the Broncos. The Raiders botched the snap and fumbled, and the Chiefs hopped on the ball to kill the clock. But this is a Kansas City team that's been there and done that. There's no worry or panic at the end of a game with this team, where we see that creep in sometimes for other teams that aren't used to being there. So that record is earned by having that history. It's given this team a lot of trust that however ugly it might look they're going to find a way to win in the end."
All told the Chiefs had 11 comeback wins this season, and Patrick Mahomes was 5-1 when trailing in the fourth quarter in 2024. It was the best quarterback winning percentage in the league in such situations this season.
đ3. Bills run game rolling
Buffalo's run game has been relatively dependable all season long, but it has really hit its stride in the playoffs. The Bills had the ninth-ranked run game in the regular season averaging just over 131 yards on the ground per game.
In two postseason outings against the third-ranked run defense of the Broncos and the top ranked run defense of the Ravens, the Bills ground attack has rolled up 357 rushing yards, good for more than 178 rushing yards on average, a 47 yards per game increase.
The Bills have diversified their run game considerably in recent weeks adding some I-formation plays, toss plays along with some of their more familiar concepts. In an appearance on âOne Bills Liveâ this week, right tackle Spencer Brown believes it's given opponents more to think about and prepare for when they play Buffalo.
"It helps a ton making the same thing look like a bunch of different things, or a bunch of different things look like the same thing," Brown said. "That comes from upstairs and comes down to the players after that. All of that stuff was installed months ago. So that's where the technique and communication between us as players comes in. It just flows really well and with the guys we have in the room, we can just line up and say, 'Okay we're doing this.' And then we just go from there. It's a good room and a good coaching staff, and very pleased with the results."
ESPN NFL analyst, Dan Orlovsky, feels the Bills running game is in a place where they can get yards whenever they want.
"The thing that Buffalo has done such a good job of is getting the run started," he said. "More often than not their run game gets started and we've talked about their really good blocking wide receivers, the sixth offensive lineman when he's on the field. They're just really consistent. The vision by Cook and Davis. So, they just call their run plays and they're consistently efficient. So much so, that some of these three and four-yard runs are going for eight, nine and 11 yards. Their ability to control the line of scrimmage has been paramount to their success offensively."
The Chiefs do have the eighth-ranked run defense, but Orlovsky has been surprised of late to see a noticeable absence from Kansas City's run front.
"When you watch Kansas City and you see a six or seven-yard run against them number 95 is usually not on the field," said Orlovsky of the Chiefs' All-Pro DT Chris Jones. "That is something that is showing a little bit more. I don't know why, but when he's not on the field it seems like teams have been checking into running the football and they're getting seven, eight, nine yarders. I've also seen teams motion and run the football at them and Chiefs' defenders have been getting displaced a little bit at the second level. So those are some things to pay attention to and see if they continue."
đĄ4. Playoff enemy No. 1
Bills fans know all too well that the Chiefs have been Buffalo's playoff nemesis having knocked them out of the playoffs in three of the last four years. Kansas City has also been every other NFL club's postseason problem as well. Just ask the San Francisco 49ers, who have now lost a pair of Super Bowls to the Chiefs.
And while Patrick Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid get the bulk of the credit and understandably so, playoff enemy number one for Buffalo is Travis Kelce. The All-Pro tight end is seemingly impossible to neutralize in the postseason.
Proof of that comes in the fact that he has the most receptions in NFL postseason history and ranks second behind only Hall of Famer, Jerry Rice, in postseason receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Kelce eclipsed the 2,000-receiving yard plateau in his playoff career last week in the Chiefs' Divisional Playoff win against Houston. The tight end had seven receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown.
Bills head coach Sean McDermott feels the on-field chemistry between Patrick Mahomes and Kelce is difficult to stop.
"They're incredible. I mean, just their relationship, their rapport," said McDermott. "They've been doing it, especially Kelce, for some time even before Patrick got there. So, just an incredible duo and connection between those two."
In three career playoff games against the Bills, Kelce has 26 receptions for 289 yards and five touchdowns, including the overtime game winning score in the 42-36 Divisional Playoff win in 2021.
"Every time the moment gets bigger, he plays better, and he will do whatever it takes to win and that's the type of guy's you want on your football team," said Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. "And I'm glad he's on mine."
Kelce's five playoff touchdown receptions against the Bills tie him with Jerry Rice for most by any player against a single opponent in NFL postseason history. Kelce needs just two receptions, and a touchdown catch on Sunday to set league playoff records for most receptions (28) and receiving touchdowns (6) against a single opponent.
đ5. Ball security specialists
When it comes to protecting the football, the Bills and Chiefs have done a pretty solid job all season long. Now in the postseason ball security becomes even more magnified as the games typically become tighter.
Patrick Mahomes threw 11 interceptions this season, including a pair against Buffalo back in Week 11. But since then, the Chiefs quarterback has not had a single turnover. Mahomes is just the third quarterback to enter a playoff game on a seven-plus game winning streak without an interception. Only Tom Brady has a longer streak with eight games.
Kansas City's signal caller currently has the longest active pass attempt streak without throwing an interception (262) of the four starting quarterbacks left in the postseason. In fact, it's the third longest streak by a quarterback entering a playoff game all-time.
Mahomes doesn't feel he's changed his game in any way to avoid turnovers. He maintains he's still willing to put the ball at risk in an effort to win games.
"At the beginning of the year, I had some interceptions," he said. "I just had to try to clean those up as best as I can, but I'm going to still take chances. I'm going to give guys chances to make plays and guys have been making plays. I just go out there and play. I don't worry about that stuff. I try to just put our team in the best positions to succeed, and if that's taking a chance and giving a guy a chance to make a play, I'll do that. And if that's taking care of the football and letting our defense go out there and get a stop to put us in a better position, I'll do that."
The Chiefs have gone eight straight games without a giveaway counting last week's Divisional Playoff game. It's the longest streak by a team in a season since at least 1950.
Meanwhile the Bills have been every bit as good at taking care of the ball as well. With only eight giveaways all season, including their two playoff games, Buffalo has the fewest turnovers by any team in a season since at least 1950.
The Divisional Round was the Bills' 12th game this season without a giveaway. Josh Allen had the fewest interceptions in a season in his career in 2024 with just six, and he had two lost fumbles early in the season.
"It's a huge, huge aspect of the game," said Allen of ball security. "This last weekend all four of the teams that got out gained all still won the game, because they won the turnover margin. That shows the importance of how much each and every drive matters in the playoffs. And that's something that I feel like I've learned throughout the years, just making sure that especially in the first and second quarter, let's not do anything to hurt ourselves. Give ourselves a chance in the third or fourth. We've just got to have a good week of practice. And you know, it's going to come down to who executes on Sunday."
One area where Buffalo has excelled all season is taking the ball away. Their 32 takeaways in the regular season were good for third-most in the league, and they got three more last week against Baltimore.
"They do a great job with that," said Chiefs head coach Andy Reid of Buffalo's takeaway prowess. "They're one of the top teams in the league at that (forcing turnovers), year after year. (Bills Head Coach) Sean (McDermott) does a nice job with that. He's got a great background with all that stuff, so he does a heck of a job â as well as (Bills Defensive Coordinator) Bobby (Babich)."
