👍1 – Touchdown makers

It's the headline quarterback matchup of this NFL generation. Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes part 8. The two signal callers have helped their teams become the only two clubs to win a division title and a playoff game in the last four seasons.

Head-to-head the series has been a tale of regular season and postseason dichotomy. Allen and the Bills have won each of the last three regular season meetings with Kansas City, making Buffalo the only NFL club to beat Patrick Mahomes in three consecutive meetings. The last team to beat the Chiefs in four straight regular season matchups was the Titans from 2014 to 2021.

Meanwhile the Chiefs have bested the Bills in each of their last three postseason meetings including last year in Orchard Park.

Sunday marks the eighth career meeting between Allen and Mahomes, with Mahomes holding a 4-3 edge counting the postseason. They're only the second pair of quarterbacks from different divisions to meet eight times in a five-season span since 1970, joining Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

"You're playing the best – I mean, the best of the best," said Mahomes of Allen. "That's what you want in this league, and I've been able to go up against (Bills QB) Josh (Allen) a multitude of times. Every single game, it seems like it comes down to the very end. He's a guy that competes and he has that fire. I think you can see that fire that he plays with and that kind of goes through his entire team. We know it's going to take our best football."

The two teams rank first and second in wins and point differential since 2020. A big reason why is because of the touchdown production of their quarterbacks. Mahomes (244) and Allen (242) lead the NFL in offensive touchdowns since 2018. They rank first and second all-time in total touchdowns per game (Allen 2.327; Mahomes 2.324).

"Anytime you're going against a quarterback like Pat you've got to make sure that on the offensive side of the ball you're doing everything right," said Josh Allen. "So again, that's all we're trying to do, is just have a good week of practice and then just go try to go out there and execute against a really good defense on Sunday.

Only Peyton Manning (253) and Dan Marino (250) had more offensive touchdowns than Mahomes and Allen before turning 30 in league history, and Mahomes won't turn 30 until next September, with Allen not set to turn 30 until May of 2026. Both are likely to pass the Hall of Famers.

Allen has thrown 16 touchdown passes against Kansas City in his career, the most against any non-AFC East opponent, while Mahomes has 15 passing touchdowns against Buffalo, tied for his most against a non-AFC West opponent (Cincinnati).

This season, Mahomes and the Chiefs are scoring at quite the clip they have in recent years, yet they still rank 11^th in the league in scoring at 24.3 points per game. Allen and the Bills have averaged 29 points per game this season, which ranks third in the NFL behind only Baltimore and Detroit.

Will the two light up the scoreboard on Sunday? That's hard to say.

Both defenses rank in the top 10 in points allowed, but in their seven previous meetings Allen and Mahomes have combined for 36 total touchdowns.

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🏃2 – Streaking

Yes, we all know that the Chiefs come into Sunday's game unbeaten, but stretching back to last season, Kansas City has won a franchise record 15 straight games. The Chiefs last loss came on Christmas Day last year. Their current win streak is the eighth longest in the Super Bowl era.

What's most remarkable about Kansas City's win streak is they have trailed in 12 of the 15 games. They have staged eight game-winning drives during the streak and have won nine straight this season despite trailing in the second half. Their eight comeback wins in 2024 are the most by any team to start 9-0 in NFL history.

They've won seven in a row facing a halftime deficit, which is tied for the longest streak all-time including playoffs. Twelve of the 15 games in the win streak have been decided by one score, including last week's heart-stopping 16-14 victory sealed with a blocked field goal as time expired.

Head coach Andy Reid is fully aware that they've been fortunate to pull out some games at times, especially last week.

"We've been given opportunities and we've taken advantage of them and then we've made a few opportunities ourselves with some good plays," Reid said. "You'd probably say that they outplayed us (last Sunday) and then they end up not winning the game. You see that throughout the league, I mean you just saw the Lions game last (week), five interceptions and they find a way to win the game. You give credit to your locker room and your coaches, just for being mentally tough and sticking with it."

Even though Patrick Mahomes ramps up his play when his team is trailing boosting his completion percentage to 72 percent and his passer rating almost 20 points to 100.1, it's the Chiefs defense that really locks things down in crunch time. Kansas City's defense has allowed no points and just 20 total yards when they have trailed in the fourth quarter this entire season.

The Chiefs are the fifth reigning Super Bowl champion to start the following season 9-0 or better. Only one of those five teams, however, made it back to the Super Bowl.

We should note that the Bills have a little streak of their own going right now as well. Buffalo has won five straight games with an average margin of victory of 12.2 points per game. They've scored 30 points or more in each of their last four games, and in seven of their 10 games this season.

Additionally, Buffalo is an NFL-best 13-2 in their last 15 regular season games.

🏈3 – Are takeaways the play?

The Chiefs may not always score a lot of points, but they have found different ways to win games this season. So too have the Bills, and one of Buffalo's biggest aids in lifting them to victory has been takeaways.

Sean McDermott's defensive unit has played a big role in putting Buffalo at the top of the league in turnover differential at plus-13, four clear of their next closest team in that category (LAC, PIT - +9). Second in the league in total takeaways with 19, the Bills have at least one takeaway in every game marking the longest active streak in the NFL.

In an appearance this week on ‘One Bills Live’ DE Greg Rousseau said getting turnovers is frequently mentioned as priority number one.

"At every level of the defense, whether it's at the second level with a punch out, or up front with strip sacks trying to get to the quarterback and getting the ball out, or guys on the back end chasing down a guy and forcing a fumble, or picking one off, I feel like we're emphasizing it in every single meeting we're in," said Rousseau. "We're big on takeaways. They change the game. Whether it's a Wednesday meeting or a Saturday meeting we're talking about getting four turnovers. We set the bar really high and try to have those high expectations for each other every single week."

Buffalo's offense has largely made good on those extra possessions provided by the defense taking the ball away as the Bills lead the league in points scored off turnovers with 78 on the season.

If there is one thing the outstanding Kansas City defense has not done with regularity, it's take the ball away. They have forced just eight turnovers in nine games, which ranks 22^nd in the league.

In Buffalo's last four regular season matchups with the Chiefs, the Bills have been a plus-6 in the turnover margin, thanks in large part to five interceptions thrown by Patrick Mahomes during that span.

This season the Chiefs offense (12) has twice as many giveaways as the Bills (6), and Buffalo could clearly benefit if that trend continues. Unfortunately, Mahomes has cut back on turning the ball over of late. The Chiefs quarterback has not thrown an interception in back-to-back games for the first time this season over the last two weeks.

He also hasn't fumbled the last two games despite being sacked eight times, which is the most he's been taken down over two games this season.

Buffalo is coming off a season-high four takeaway performance at Indianapolis in which they scored 17 points off turnovers, to tie a season high.

Finishing on the plus side of the turnover margin against Kansas City could be critical in pulling off a victory.

💪4 – Third down dominators

Although the Chiefs do not lead the league in scoring it is almost impossible to get their offense off the field. They lead the league in third down conversion rate at a robust 52 percent. Some might surmise that that league-leading conversion rate is due to Kansas City's ability to put themselves in favorable down and distance when they reach third down, but distance to the first down marker has not seemed to matter.

The Chiefs lead the league in 3^rd-and-10-plus conversion rate at 32.1 percent. They lead the league in 3^rd-and-6-plus conversion rate at 34.6 percent. Even 3^rd-and-4-6 conversion rate (72.4%) they are tops in the NFL. And if for some reason a defense has stopped them short of the line to gain by a yard, Kansas City is perfect this season on 4^th-and-1 situations converting all of their opportunities this season.

Chiefs radio color analyst, Danan Hughes, in an appearance on ‘One Bills Live’ this week, feels it's the team's early down prowess that is aiding their third down efficiency.

"I would say the one stat that people don't pay attention to is what they've done on first down," said Danan Hughes. "There have been games where the Chiefs are averaging over five yards on first down. Imagine being faced with 2^nd-and-5 or 2^nd-and-4 all the time. It gives you a wide-open playbook to keep moving the ball and you put the defense in a predicament where they think they need to move off of what they like to do best. And that's when it seems that the Chiefs offense can catch the opponent off guard and gash them. Their third down production has been great, but it's how the team has been able to run the ball on first down that has helped that third down production."

Hughes is correct. Kansas City's high rate of efficient is due largely to their successful play percentage, which is a play that gains four yards or more. The Chiefs accomplish that at a league-best 55.2 percent of the time. That keeps their offense on the field longer than any other team in the league with a time of possession of over 33 minutes per game (33:01).

"It starts with the quarterback and just how he can extend plays," said Taron Johnson. "When he can do that, that's huge for them because as a defense now you've got to win two times. One the first read, and then after he scrambles out there, then you got to win again, whether that be stopping him from getting the first down or breaking up a pass. So, he does that extremely well."

Mahomes' decision making is a big reason why the Chiefs lead the NFL in 10-play drives with 26, and five-minute drives with 24. All that time with the ball is also why their opponents have had the fewest total possessions this season, just 87. Their opponents obviously, also have the least amount of time with the ball, at just under 27 minutes per game (26:59).

🏠5 – Healthy homers

The Bills are the only team besides the Chiefs who remain unbeaten at home, where they have gone 4-0 this season. A big reason why is the Bills have averaged 36.25 points per game at Highmark Stadium, a league best.

That point production is due largely to the Buffalo offense having the second-highest successful play percentage in home games this season. Almost half of their plays have gone for four yards or more (49.4%), second only to Cincinnati (49.7%).

No other NFL offense converts more of their first downs into another first down or a touchdown in home games than Buffalo. The Bills have done that on almost 82 percent of their first-down plays at home this season (81.7%).

It helps explain why Josh Allen has the second-highest passer rating in the league this season in home games with a figure of 121.

Buffalo's last home loss in the regular season will be a full calendar year from Sunday's game. It was in Week 10 to Denver.