đ1 â Allen excelling
It may not be in the way you've always seen it before, but Josh Allen is excelling in a new way for Buffalo's offense. The quarterback's passer rating of 107.6 is the highest through the first eight games of a season in his career. In six of those first eight games, Allen's passer rating has been over 100, the most such games in the league, and he leads the NFL with a 14:1 touchdown to interception ratio.
In Buffalo's six wins Allen has completed 72 percent of his passes and has 16 total touchdowns as the team has averaged 33.5 points per game in those outings.
ESPN NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky credits offensive coordinator, Joe Brady with helping Allen play more within the structure of the offense, which provides easy answers so Allen can execute consistently.
"Look at last week in Seattle," said Orlovsky in his weekly appearance on âOne Bills Live.â "Number one, they threw four perimeter screens. So, you're taking the thinking, the desire, the adrenaline, away from the quarterback for those four snaps, but yet building a positive play that that is beneficial for him. Then you have three different keepers, which for quarterbacks are fun because it's simplified. You're more than likely going to get a completion. And there were two designed quarterback runs. That's 10 plays right there. A very simple execution, very light thinking, and you're guiding the quarterback in what to do with the football.
"That's easy, simple stuff. And then that leads to you to some of those seam throws. The one to Keon (Coleman), the play fake on the deep crosser, the seam to (Dalton) Kincaid. So, it's not like they're taking stuff away from Josh. I think when they allow him to be a difference maker, there are less moments for it, but I think there's a clear picture of how to go do it. And I think that is a credit to Joe, for sure."
The Bills are also running the ball almost 49 percent of the time, which takes more of the offensive burden off of Allen as well.
Buffalo's success against Miami of late has been well documented, and Allen currently has a 132.8 passer rating at home this season. Couple that with Allen's 6-0 mark and 121.7 rating at home in his career against Miami with 18 touchdowns and just two interceptions, it's reasonable to think that Allen's MVP level play will continue.
đŹ2 â Tua returns
Miami's quarterback finally returned to the lineup for the Dolphins last week after spending a month on injured reserve. Tua Tagovailoa was injured in Miami's Week 2 loss to Buffalo when he sustained a concussion on a scramble in the second half.
The high-octane Dolphins offense appeared rejuvenated by Tagovailoa's return with their highest scoring output of the season, though their 27 points weren't enough in a last-second 28-27 loss to Arizona.
"The offense looked like a lot of what we saw last year," said NFL Network national reporter, Cameron Wolfe said of Miami, in an appearance on 'One Bills Live' this week. "They played well offensively. Offense wasn't the reason they lost that game. Tua looked back in sync. It was the offense that for last five or six weeks, didn't have any rhythm in their operation. And they got their pilot back, and it looked like it. It added juice to everybody. You know, Devon Achane had a great game through some of the lanes that Tua was able to open up in the passing game. Tyreek had a better day too. So, offense played well enough to win. The defense just was the group that let him down last week."
Tagovailoa completed 28 of his 38 pass attempts against the Cardinals last week (73.7%) for 234 yards and one touchdown in his first game back while the offense converted on more than 73 percent of their third downs.
In Tagovailoa's three starts this season, including Week 2 against Buffalo, the offense has averaged 376 total yards and converted third downs at a rate of better than 56 percent (56.5%).
"It felt like riding a bike again, even though Tua had been out for six weeks, everybody got back into a rhythm," Wolfe said of the Dolphins offense. "And I think even this week, they'll even reach a different level of comfort. So, I wouldn't be surprised if this game is close and they're able to score some points on the offensive side of the ball because of some of the factors that we've mentioned, I just don't know defensively, that they can slow down that Bills offense."
The only bad number Tagovailoa comes into Sunday's game with is his history of interceptions against Buffalo. He has thrown 10 INTs against the Bills in his career, double the amount of any other opponent. The next closest is the Jets with five interceptions.
đ3 â Best fourth down team in the NFL
Nearing the season's midway point, the Bills are performing well in a lot of areas, but arguably their best area of performance has been on fourth down on both sides of the ball. Through eight games, the Bills remain perfect on fourth down conversions, making good on all eight of their fourth down situations this season. That ties them with Washington (9-9) for tops in the league with a 100 percent conversion rate.
"It's a got-to-have-it situation at the end of the day," said RB Ty Johnson in an appearance on âOne Bills Liveâ this week. "You don't want to give the opposing team a short field or anything on a fourth down or anything like that. So, it's really that attitude, that mindset, down and dirty, get that extra yard, even if it's an inch, two yards, whatever. We've got to get it, and we've done a great job doing that and moving the sticks."
Buffalo's defense has been even more impressive on fourth down. They've faced 18 fourth down situations from opponents and forced a turnover on downs with stops a league-leading 12 times. That means two thirds of the time this season they've forced a turnover on downs and gotten the ball back for their offense.
The Bills have been a top 10 red zone defense all season in terms of preventing touchdowns. They currently rank sixth. But on 28 red zone possessions they have turned away opponents with nothing eight times, which have included fourth down stops like last week in Seattle. That means Bills opponents have come away with points (touchdown or a field goal) on a red zone possession just 71.4 percent of the time. It's a league low success rate for opposing offenses.
"It's momentum, and some people don't believe in it, but it's a real thing, momentum," said Johnson. "And you love to see when the defense goes out there and has a fourth down stop. If it's just a blade of grass, they're going to defend it. That's what you love to see from our defense, and when they do that, you know, they're hyped. They're going to get us on the field. They get the ball back to us, and we just go do our job. It's complementary football at the end of the day."
Conversely, Miami has struggled mightily this season when it comes to converting on fourth down go-for-it situations. They are a league-worst 2-for-15 on fourth down conversions for just a 13.3 percent success rate. Defensively, they rank tied for ninth in the league getting fourth down stops 50 percent of the time.
đĽ4 â Hot home cooking
Recent history has demonstrated that the Bills do not have a problem scoring points against the Dolphins, whether they are home or away. But their points per game average overall in home games this season has been difficult to ignore.
The Bills are averaging a league best 38.3 points per game at Highmark Stadium, with their quarterback providing a league-high 132.8 passer rating in those home outings. In addition to their 3-0 mark at home, Buffalo also leads the league in point differential at home (+67), offensive touchdowns per game at home (4.7) and sack differential at home (+9).
Not that this solid play at home is anything new. Since 2020, the Bills have the best winning percentage in the league (81.1%) and the highest point differential (+443). The next closest team is Dallas (+276).
The Bills have scored 31 points or more in five games this season with three of them coming at home. That's the most in the NFL.
Since 2018, Buffalo has averaged 32.7 points per game against Miami in their 13 regular season matchups going 11-2 over that stretch.
âď¸5 â Pass rush problems
Miami's defense is an injury-riddled unit right now. Already without top pass rushers Bradley Chubb (Reserve-PUP) and Jaelen Phillips (Injured Reserve), the Dolphins could also be without their best interior defensive lineman, Zach Sieler, who fractured an orbital bone by his eye in practice last week. All the absences have seen Miami's pass rush lose its effectiveness when it comes to affecting the opposing quarterback.
Through seven games, the Dolphins have managed just nine sacks, which ranks 31st in the league. They're also 24th in quarterback knockdowns (18) and 27th in quarterback pressures (47).
"This time last year that had three edge rushers that were absolute game changers," said Orlovsky in reference to Chubb, Phillips, and Andrew Van Ginkel, now in Minnesota. "None of them are there right now because of injury, and that's been an issue."
Wolfe felt the Dolphins' inability to hem in a mobile quarterback last week was a major problem.
"One thing the Dolphins really struggled with was they couldn't corral Kyler Murray," said Wolfe.
"A lot of times where they had him right in their grip, and he would scramble around a little bit and extend plays and beat them. So, it wasn't like the secondary was just getting sliced and diced quickly. It was one of those things where Kyler extended plays and made plays. And of course, Josh can do that better than, I think, any quarterback in the league, and so that presents another challenge for them. We know Josh has had a lot of success against Miami."
Making matters worse, the Dolphins are a bit hobbled on the back end as well with nickel corner, Kader Kohou, rookie DB Storm Duck, and safety Jevon Holland all nursing injuries. Holland, arguably their most talented defensive back, suffered a knee injury in last week's game and did not return. Kohou's absence forced veteran Jalen Ramsey to play in the slot leaving inexperienced second-year CB Cam Smith outside.
"Both of those same corners are still injured," said Wolfe of Kohou and Duck. "If you've got Jalen Ramsey in the slot, then that opens up an outside lane for someone to eat, so that, along with the lack of pass rush and just poor tackling for them, I think really was the story of the game. That defense had been carrying the team in Tua's absence, trying to keep them afloat while he was out, but they did not show up last Sunday."
Duck, Holland, and Kohou all did not practice on Wednesday.
Scroll to see the best photos from Wednesday's practice as the Buffalo Bills prepare to face the Miami Dolphins.