1 — An Allen air out?
Through the first two weeks of the season, Bills QB Josh Allen was big in Week 1 with four total touchdowns and largely a facilitator in Week 2. While Buffalo's offensive captain is happy to do whatever he is called upon to execute, the balanced playmaking ability of the roster has been on full display the first two weeks of the season.
"That's the beauty of where this offense is," said ESPN NFL analyst, Dan Orlovsky, in his weekly appearance on ‘One Bills Live.’ "The foundation gives it a chance because the offensive line has become so strong. So, you have all these pieces and if you take away piece 'A' and piece 'B', our 'C' or 'D' player can still make a play for us. One week they might take away Dalton Kincaid or Khalil Shakir, and the 'C' or 'D' option in that game plan can still deliver to keep the offense on schedule where they can continue to function."
That has also provided Josh Allen with more comfort to just execute the play that's called rather than feel he has to do something special all the time.
"The best way I describe it. In relation to the pass game, the defense tells Josh where to throw the ball now," said Orlovsky. "It now frees them up to execute the play call, and the defense tells him where to throw the ball and trust and react to what he sees. They've got all these different guys they can use in different ways."
Allen has appeared in eight Monday night games in his career, and already has 20 touchdown passes over that span, which ties him with Bills Hall of Fame QB Jim Kelly for fourth-most in a quarterback's first 10 Monday night games, with two to play.
If he throws two touchdown passes Monday night against the Jaguars, he'll move into a tie with Dave Krieg and Peyton Manning for third-most ever in a quarterback's first 10 Monday night games (22), with a game still to play. That game would come in Week 6 at the New York Jets on Oct. 14th.
Jacksonville's defense has been stingy this season allowing just 19 points per game, and they often prove to be a tough side for Buffalo's offense to solve.
"Their front seven, they get after it," said Allen, who has been sacked four times over the last two meeting with the Jaguars. "They've got two really supreme edge rushers, probably three. The last couple of times we've played them, they've gotten the best of us. They've got a new defensive coordinator, but they're flying around. They've got guys with motors. They don't let up. We're going to have our hands full."
Allen has just 42 pass attempts over the first two games, but Jacksonville could prove to be a good matchup for the deep ball if the protection holds up. Through their first two outings, the Jaguars defense has surrendered the second-highest number of 20-plus yard pass plays (8). They rank 26th in red zone defense and are 29th against the pass. The loss of top corner Tyson Campbell to injury in Week 1 also hurts.
The Jaguars could play it safe and sit in a cover-two shell to keep everything in front of them, but that would mean light boxes to exploit for AFC Offensive Player of the Week, James Cook.
2 — Eager to bust out of a slump
The situation for Jacksonville and QB Trevor Lawrence is much more desperate heading into Week 3 with a 0-2 mark. Lawrence has now lost seven in a row dating back to last season. Their last victory was on Thanksgiving weekend, and they've scored more than 20 points once in the last six games.
Jacksonville has been able to move the ball on offense but extending drives on third down and finishing drives in the red zone have proven difficult. The Jaguars have converted just five of their 19 third downs (26.3%) thus far this season, and just 43 percent of their red zone possessions have resulted in a touchdown.
"They understand they have to play better. We have to coach better," said Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson. "It's a group effort. It's no particular one person or one position group or one side of the ball. I think there are obviously enough mistakes to fix enough things we can get better at. But the fact that the players are united and locked in and focused that way is a good sign."
It hasn't all been on QB Trevor Lawrence, but he's completed just 51 percent of his passes, and he's been sacked at the second-highest rate in the league with his offensive front surrendering seven sacks.
"Trevor is wildly talented and has had a lot of great moments in his career," said Orlovsky. "This offseason he was expected to take a jump this year. They're talented at the skill positions, but they haven't figured out how to pull it all together. Offensively, the biggest problem could be their offensive line."
Orlovsky attributes the struggles to a lack of identity.
"Here's why the identity offensively matters. How you start games, the first 15 snaps, your identity shows itself in those moments," he said. "Basically, your approach is to start well in the game. Is there a formation or personnel identity, or how we want to attack defenses identity? There hasn't been consistency in that for Jacksonville. Or when they're not in rhythm, who are the people we can rely on to get going? Or in those got-to-have-it moments, who do they have late in the football game to confidently turn to. I don't think they have that right now."
3 — Bug-a-boo opponent
One thing Jacksonville can hang their hat on is the fact that they've upset the Bills in each of their last two meetings. Three years ago, as a one-win club under Urban Meyer, they won a defensive stalemate 9-6, and last year in London, they got ahead early and forced Buffalo to work hard to get back in the game before falling 25-20.
Looking at those last two matchups, what stood out was a lack of a run game as the Jaguars had more than twice as many rushing yards over those two meetings (275 to 101). Buffalo also had two more turnovers (5 to 3) and more than twice as many penalty yards (227 to 110). It led to a paltry points per game average of just 13, with Jacksonville just slightly better at 17 points per game.
"They're extremely well coached," said Bills head coach Sean McDermott of the Jaguars. "Really good personnel across the front and across the roster for that matter. They're playing hard. Through two games they haven't allowed a lot of points through the first two weeks. They're a good team. We respect every team that we play. That's where it starts and that's where it ends. We have a lot of respect for the Jaguars."
The biggest differences heading into this game is Buffalo is a much stronger running team under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, and a more diversified offense overall.
"I remember that game three years ago when Josh did not play well and tried to do too much," said Orlovsky. "I think the balance in this Bills' offense is significantly better. The lack of predictability in this offense and an awareness of who they are is significantly better. It's going to be a good challenge. I think that they're more equipped to handle it offensively. This game comes down to how consistent Buffalo's defense can be with backups because Jacksonville's offense is too talented to stay stuck in the mud."
4 — Pass rush party?
As previously mentioned, Jacksonville has given up seven sacks in two games, and Buffalo's pass rush has looked formidable through the first two weeks of the young season. Coming off a season in which they ranked fourth in sacks with 54, the Bills' edge rushers have picked up right where they left off.
Greg Rousseau had three sacks in the opener on the elusive Kyler Murray, and Von Miller looks back to form now two years removed from the ACL knee injury. Ed Oliver got in on the act last week in the win at Miami. Add in Buffalo's 10 quarterback hits, including A.J. Epenesa's, which led to an interception return for a touchdown by Ja'Marcus Ingram, and suddenly Buffalo is sixth in the league in sack percentage.
"You do not want either of those tackles single-blocking Rousseau or Von right now," said Orlovsky of Jacksonville's offensive line. "The way that Buffalo has handled Von is really smart. Rousseau is really starting to show himself. And Ed Oliver had another big game. It's going to be really interesting to watch how Jacksonville handles their early downs because if they get into obvious passing situations, I think that Bills' defensive line is starting to show itself when it gets in those obvious passing situations."
For Von Miller the success has been a long time coming after a very trying year in 2023, less than a full year removed from the ACL knee injury.
"I've been chomping at the bit to go out there and prove myself and show that I can still play and really prove to myself that I can go out there and have success," said Miller. "How do you respond to that success? That's been my message, not only to myself, but to the rest of our team. How do we respond to this early success? Let's go out there and show that we've still got more to do, more to prove and more games to go."
5 – Target on your chest
The second level of Buffalo's defense has been beset with injuries. After losing Matt Milano to a torn biceps before the season even started it was followed by second-team All-Pro nickel corner, Taron Johnson in Week 1. Then MLB Terrel Bernard went down in Week 2, and the Bills very quickly had some big holes to plug.
But Cam Lewis and Baylon Spector have capably filled those roles and been productive in their time on the field, and Ja'Marcus Ingram has been a revelation as a slot corner in the dime package with Lewis sliding to dime safety. Now with a full week to game plan for those replacements, Jacksonville is likely to test them early and often, something both Spector and Lewis completely expect going into the game.
"They've got a dynamic quarterback, dynamic running back, and they've got players on the outside," Spector said. "They can make explosive plays. It's a good offense."
Spector should know since he squared off against Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne in practice at Clemson for three seasons.
"The guys who are in there for Buffalo will have to prove to Jacksonville's offense that they can handle looking at a lot of things pre-snap," said Orlovsky. "Whether it's constantly changing personnel, a shift, motion, and then get into the right communication in terms of who has to be where. I want to see if you can handle different action post-snap. I would put stress on that group a ton. Miami tried to do that against them, and the backups responded and tackled well in space. That's what Jacksonville's offense has to do and go after that second unit."
Spector knows his communication pre-snap must be on point and is also aware that the home crowd will make communicating a challenge when Jacksonville's offense is on the field.
"I just have to signal and make sure I get around to all the guys, the back seven, the guys behind me, on the boundary, even the D-line on some things," said Spector. "Just making sure they've got the calls, being loud."
Meanwhile, Cam Lewis has been a double agent for Buffalo's defense lining up at nickel corner and then at safety in the defense's dime package. Lewis feels the down-to-down changes come naturally to him, having played both roles for a couple of seasons.
"I'm not saying it's easy," said Lewis. "But you have to change your mindset about what you're doing, what keys you're reading. I've been practicing it, so I just have that interchangeable approach where I can just flip my mind and I've been good to go."
