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Weekend Look Ahead

6 things to watch for in Bills at Jets | Monday Night Football | Week 6

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills, Regular Season, September 11, 2023 at Metlife Stadium.
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills, Regular Season, September 11, 2023 at Metlife Stadium.

🎯1. QBs aiming to be better

In a Monday night atmosphere, the spotlight will spend a good deal of time shining on the two quarterbacks in this Week 6 matchup between the Bills and Jets. First and foremost, both signal callers will be looking to improve their own individual performance on Monday night.

Both Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers are coming off their worst games of the 2024 campaign. Allen's completion percentage of 30 percent last week at Houston was the lowest of his career. Meanwhile Rodgers tied a career high with three interceptions, including a pick six and a 54.9 passer rating in the Jets' loss to Minnesota in London last week.

Particularly frustrating for Allen has been his near misses on deep passes in which he's had receivers open behind the defense. It's happened a few times already this season and again last week at Houston when he missed Mack Hollins on a deep shot in the first half.

"It's sometimes referred to as a game of inches and that's exactly what it came down to," said Allen on some of his deep shot incompletions. "Just a couple of inches on a few different throws that could have drastically changed the game, and we'd be talking a different tune this week. That's how the game goes sometimes, but we're going to continue to keep working and I've got to find ways to be better for this team."

Allen has a 7-4 career record versus the Jets and his numbers on Monday Night Football are even better. The Bills captain has the fourth-best passer rating of any player on Monday Nights since he entered the NFL in 2018 with a mark of 108.9. He also has 22 passing touchdowns against just six interceptions.

The last two weeks, however, he has had trouble against the blitz, as his receivers have found it difficult to gain separation against the stronger coverage units of the Ravens and Texans. Over the last two games, Allen is 5-16 passing (31.3%) against the blitz for 34 yards with one touchdown, four sacks and a passer rating of 66. The Jets don't blitz at a high rate (24%), but they might in light of the success of Buffalo's opponents the past two weeks. Jets second-year pass rusher, Will McDonald leads the AFC in sacks with six, and the Jets rank fourth in the league in sacks with 18.

For Rodgers the problem has also been handling the blitz as opponents have brought five or more rushers on more than 32 percent of his drop backs this season, the highest against him in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016). It has forced him to get the ball out in less than 2.5 seconds more than half the time (56.6%), which is the highest rate for him since his 2017 season with Green Bay. And his efficiency has been compromised as well as he's managed just a 74.8 passer rating when blitzed this season.

He's also had a problem his whole career when facing the Buffalo Bills. He has a 74.9 passer rating against the Bills and has never thrown for 300 yards or three touchdowns in any game versus Buffalo.

😠2. An interim bump?

While it may not have shocked Jets fans, the sudden firing of Jets head coach Robert Saleh this past Tuesday raised eyebrows across the league. Jets owner Woody Johnson said it was his decision alone to move on from Saleh, feeling his very talented roster should be stacking a lot more wins than the two they've managed through the first five weeks.

There has been a common belief that a new interim coach can get the rest of the team to rally around him and get a better performance out of the players in the first game after a coaching change. And in the short term that might be true.

Since 2010, interim head coaches in the NFL have gone 16-13 in the first game after a coaching change is made.

Defensive coordinator, Jeff Ulbrich was tabbed as the interim head coach for the final 12 games of the regular season. Ulbrich outlined his message to the players after he was appointed interim head coach this week.

"The message was it's time to lock arms," said Ulbrich. "We go back-to-back and it's us against everybody. And with the talent that we have in that room, in my opinion, we have everything we need to be successful and have the season that we know we're capable of having."

Ulbrich and the Jets are hoping to end the franchise's 13-year playoff drought.

In an effort to try to and get a spark on offense, Ulbrich named Passing Game Coordinator, Todd Downing, as their offensive play caller, as he takes play calling duties from offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett. Downing has served as an offensive coordinator before in Oakland (2017) and Tennessee (2021-2022). He also served as Quarterbacks coach of the Bills in 2014.

As for midseason coaching changes, in the Super Bowl era only one NFL club that made a midseason coaching change has reached the playoffs. In 2021, Raiders Special Teams Coordinator, Rich Bisaccia succeeded the ousted Jon Gruden, and qualified for the postseason in Week 18, only to lose in the Wild Card round.

The only other instances in which a team that underwent a midseason coaching change reached the postseason came in 1942 (Chicago Bears), 1952 (L.A. Rams), and 1961 (Houston Oilers – AFL).

Scroll to see the best photos from Thursday's practice as the Buffalo Bills prepare to face the New York Jets.

🏃‍♀️3. A first down difference

It's hard to call it a trend because the leanings only became accentuated this past week, but Buffalo's offense has seen a shift when it comes to first down play calling under new full-time offensive coordinator, Joe Brady.

Buffalo has run the ball on 20 of their last 26, 1st-and-10 situations stretching back to the end of their Week 4 loss at Baltimore. There could naturally be some variables at work in causing that. Running the ball early on first down against Houston proved fruitful. They started the game with three carries for 23 yards, and the passing game was struggling to string plays together.

"I thought we did a better job just kind of sticking with the run game and getting back into the game in the second half (at Houston)," said offensive coordinator Joe Brady. "You're going to have some muddy runs. There are going to be some ones that you might only get three yards, but you've got to make a living with it, because it's going to open up later. We just didn't get one that ended up popping for us. But I felt like it allowed us to get back into the football game, and we've got to do a better job of cleaning up the pass game so that as we're running the ball, we get the box that we want to be able to take advantage of it in the pass game."

Zooming out to take a broader look, Buffalo's offense under Brady has become a run-first attack in terms of the percentages anyway. Under previous coordinators, Brian Daboll and Ken Dorsey, Buffalo was among the league leaders in pass rate on first down in 2021 and 2022. Granted it's just a five-game sample this season, but the Bills offense ranks 31st in pass attempts on first down.

Perhaps they're trying to let a very new receiving room get its legs underneath them and reach a level of efficiency before leaning on the passing game more, but with a first down run rate of 61 percent so far this season it could present some play call opportunities against the Jets.

"The big thing is they're just going to have to figure out who this new group of wide receivers is against good defensive talent," said ESPN NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky in his weekly appearance on 'One Bills Live.' "There has not been much separation at the line of scrimmage, not much winning at the line of scrimmage. So, it demands more creativity. It means more bunches and stacks to help those receivers win early in the down."

Play action with Josh Allen under center could also prove effective against an aggressive Jets defensive front.

📊4. Third down improvements

One problem that has persisted since the beginning of the season is Buffalo's lack of efficiency on third down. Buffalo has led the league each of the last two seasons in third down efficiency at or near a rate of 50 percent conversion. Thus far this season, the Bills are converting third down at a rate of 32 percent, which ranks 25th in the NFL.

In only one game this season (Week 3 vs. Jacksonville) did they convert more than three third down opportunities as they went 6-for-11. In their other four games the Bills are a combined 12-for-45 (26.6%).

Part of that problem goes back to their productivity on first down where they are running the ball 61 percent of the time. Buffalo ranks 28th in average yardage on first down (4.52 yards). For what it's worth the Jets rank 30th (4.27).

But it's helped to contribute to a lot of third and long situations. So far this season the Bills have found themselves in 3rd-and-6 or more two-thirds of the time (66.6%), which is a tough way to live as an offense and still sustain drives.

"We've got to do what we've got to do to be able to stay on the field, stay in manageable first and second downs and not be in these long third downs," said Brady. "I think that's been a big difference these past two weeks. So, obviously that's something we're going to look into and figure out, in terms of what gives us the best opportunity of success."

It's a big reason why their total snaps per game as an offense are down this season as well. Buffalo is averaging 55.8 snaps per game on offense, which ranks 28th in the league, about 10 plays fewer than last season (65.6 snaps per game) when they ranked fifth in the NFL.

Fewer snaps on offense means fewer opportunities to score.

🛬5. Jets haven't been grounded

Part of New York's shortcomings have also been rooted in their running game. Unlike the Bills however, who have run the ball well this season, the Jets have been unable to run the ball with any measure of success. Through the first five games, New York is averaging barely over 80 yards on the ground (80.4). That ranks last in the league.

Feature back Breece Hall has struggled to average just three yards per carry. And though Hall's rookie backup, Braelon Allen has flashed at times and has averaged 4.5 per carry, it hasn't been enough to keep New York's rushing attack on track. But don't think for a second the Bills are taking the Jets big-back combination lightly.

"Breece does a great job of everything," said Terrel Bernard of Hall. "He's fast, powerful. He can make people miss in the hole. And he's a receiving threat as well. His numbers might not show how good a back he is right now, but he rushed for over 100 on us last year. So, we know how good he and the rookie are right now. Together they are really, really good. Gap integrity is going to be really important."

"For Buffalo defensively, the key in this game is going to be how their edges play against the Jets offensive line," said Orlovsky. "When the Bills get a defensive end on a tight end in the run game, they've got to whoop them because that's how Minnesota was successful last week. And the speed of their linebackers is going to be huge."

Buffalo has strong edge setters in the run front with Greg Rousseau, Dawuane Smoot and A.J. Epenesa, and Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams are two very athletic run and hit linebackers.

💂6. A new kind of coverage?

The Jets have always been known as a physical defense these last few years, but when it comes to their coverage in the pass game, they appear to have taken a new approach. The Jets have been clutching and grabbing receiving targets in the secondary a good deal this season. Much like Baltimore's secondary has done over the years, they seemingly dare officials to throw flags.

Proof of their approach is rooted in the penalty statistics for the Jets. Through their first five games, Jets defenders have been called for the second-most penalties overall (18) and third-most passing penalties in the league. They rank third in most defensive passing penalty yards (134) and fourth in defensive pass interference penalties (5).

Last week against Minnesota, they were flagged six times on defense. Three times for defensive pass interference, with CB D.J. Reed committing two of those infractions. Fellow CB Sauce Gardner had three penalties in the game as he was flagged for defensive holding, illegal contact and pass interference. Three of those defensive penalties by the Jets all came on the same drive.

If New York chooses to take a similar approach to the Bills they might run into a similar problem with yellow flags. The referee for the Monday night game is Adrian Hill. His officiating crew has thrown the third-most flags so far this season (73). They've also thrown five more flags against home teams (39) than road teams (34) in 2024.

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