The Buffalo Bills are 1.5-point underdogs for Sunday's AFC Championship game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The game will air at 6:30 pm on CBS. This is the fourth time since 2020 the Bills and Chiefs have met in the postseason.

The Bills are looking for secure their first Super Bowl appearance since 1994.

Here are some additional notes for Sunday's massive matchup:

• Bills are 4-2 in AFC Championship games in the Super Bowl era
• The Chiefs are 3-0 against the Bills in the postseason since 2020
• Bills and Chiefs have met eight times since 2020 including the postseason with each team winning four games
• Bills are looking to win their first road playoff game since 1993
• Road teams have won two of the previous three AFC Championship games
• Andy Reid is 6-0 vs. former assistants in the postseason
• Patrick Mahomes has won eight consecutive postseason games

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Mike Florio & Chris Simms | Pro Football Talk

Is the fourth time a charm for the Bills?

The Chiefs have shown, all year long, that they can make a big play in the biggest spots. With one exception.

At Buffalo, it was the Bills (and quarterback Josh Allen) who slammed the door on any potential last-minute magic from Patrick Mahomes, with a 26-yard touchdown run on fourth and two.

Against the Texans, Mahomes did it again. Against the Ravens, Allen did it again.

It all comes down to four or five moments. Which team gets it done in those spots? Who can avoid the crucial mistake? Who can force the other team into making one? Who, ultimately, will deliver with the game on the line?

It's truly a toss-up. And anyone who cares about football should be glued to the TV for however this one plays out.

Florio: Chiefs, 30-27.

Simms: Bills, 27-24.

Pete Prisco | CBS Sports

This is all about Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen. The two quarterbacks have faced off three times previously in the playoffs and Mahomes has won all three. But their stats are close, with Mahomes having eight touchdowns and no picks to Allen's seven and one.

The Bills beat the Chiefs earlier this season, but it's those playoff failures that hang over this game for the Bills. They will spend all week hearing about "13 seconds" and Tyler Bass missing a game-tying field goal in last year's loss. How do they get past it?

This team seems different than in past years. It is built for the playoffs. They don't turn it over and Allen is playing his best football, even if his numbers aren't as gaudy.

Mahomes also didn't put up big numbers this year, but he's come on lately as the offense has gotten healthier. It's also the playoffs. We know that he will get the ball to Travis Kelce, who was outstanding last week.

That has to be the focal point for the Bills defense. Both teams want to run the ball, which will be the key to this one -- even if on paper it looks like a classic Mahomes-Allen battle.

Allen is the better of the two with his legs, which gives the Bills a bit of an advantage. But Mahomes can move when need be.

The Chiefs have a major edge playing at home and they also have the playoff psychological edge as well. That usually matters. But, like I said, this Bills team is different. Allen is different.

It's his time. The Bills won't have to hear about "13 seconds" anymore as Allen gets this group to the Super Bowl.

Pick: Bills 24, Chiefs 23

ESPN

Bills storyline to watch: Can the Bills finally take down the Chiefs in the playoffs after losing three straight to Kansas City in the postseason? The Bills will have to go against history to do so, having lost seven straight road playoff games. The ability to limit quarterback Patrick Mahomes will play a large role, especially given Buffalo's strength at forcing takeaways. In Buffalo's regular-season win over Kansas City, Mahomes threw two interceptions. However, the Chiefs have gone eight straight games, including the playoffs, without committing a turnover. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs will put extra emphasis on third-down defense against the Bills, who converted 9-of-15 on third downs in their Week 11 win over Kansas City. That led to Buffalo holding an advantage of 71 offensive plays to 52 and a time of possession edge of 34 minutes to 26. Getting Josh Allen and the Bills' offense off the field will take some creativity from defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and a strong pass rush like the Chiefs showed last week, when they sacked Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud eight times. -- Adam Teicher

Stat to know: The Bills have committed the fewest turnovers in NFL this season (8) while also producing a league-high 35 takeaways, including the regular season and the playoffs. -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Chiefs running back Samaje Perine will record at least four receptions, matching a season-high mark for him. Twenty-one percent of targets against the Bills have gone to running backs this year -- third highest in the league. And since I'm also predicting a Bills victory, I think the Chiefs will find themselves in more passing situations than usual. -- Walder

Matchup X factor: Chiefs defensive end George Karlaftis. Limiting Allen's ability to get to the edges of the pocket, where he can create as a both a runner and thrower, is critical for the Chiefs defense. Karlaftis, who had three sacks in the divisional round, will be tasked with containing Allen and generating pressure late in the down. -- Bowen

Betting nugget: Allen and Mahomes are 4-4 outright and ATS against each other. But Mahomes is 3-0 outright and ATS in the playoffs.

Officiating nugget: Clete Blakeman has been the referee for 12 Chiefs games since Mahomes was drafted in 2017. They are 6-6 in those games and 110-30 in all other games. Blakeman's regular-season crew led the NFL with 18.1 flags per game, but it's worth noting that Blakeman himself threw only three flags for roughing the passer, tied for the second fewest in the league. -- Seifert

Kahler's pick: Bills 34 Chiefs 31

Moody's pick: Bills 30, Chiefs 29

Walder's pick: Bills 29, Chiefs 20

FPI prediction: BUF, 54.6% (by an average of 1.6 points)

Around the NFL | NFL.com

Why Gennaro picked the Bills: Because I'm insane. At least according to a trite quotation often misattributed to Albert Einstein: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Kansas City just keeps doing the same thing over and over again, and here I am expecting a different result.

Playing in their seventh consecutive AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs are eyeing a fifth Super Bowl appearance in six seasons. Over the past 13 months, Kansas City's starters have lost one game. Of course, that lone setback came against these Bills. The Chiefs' mid-November defeat at Buffalo wasn't surprising, either, considering the Bills were favored in the game. Not to mention, the victory improved Josh Allen's regular-season record against Patrick Mahomes to 4-1. But it's a different story in the playoffs, where Mahomes boasts a perfect 3-0 mark in the QB duel. So, what makes me believe Allen will finally slay his Chief tormentor in the postseason? Well, speaking of insanity ...

I think the Bills can out-Chief the Chiefs.

Jason Logan | Covers.com

The Chicago Bulls had the Detroit Pistons, Joey Chestnut had Kobayashi, Prince had Michael Jackson, and the Buffalo Bills have the Kansas City Chiefs.

They all had their "dragon to slay" on the path to glory.

It just so happens the Bills' dragon is a two-headed monster, with one head sporting a red cap and push-broom mustache and the other topped with a tuft of curly, dandruff-free hair and sounding a lot like Kermit the Frog.

Buffalo clashes with Kansas City for the fourth time in the past five postseasons in the AFC Championship Game this Sunday, going 0-for-3 against the Chiefs in those previous playoff encounters.

Understandably, the Bills are slight underdogs heading to Arrowhead Stadium which also makes them the featured point spread NFL pick in the Championship Sunday edition of my "NFL Underdogs" column.

Whether the Bills finally slay that dragon remains to be seen, but I do like them as two-point pups in an extremely tight game.

My pick: Buffalo Bills +2

Will Brinson | CBS Sports

Yes, we are betting against Patrick Mahomes. No, it does not feel good. But it might be the Bills' time to finally get through much like -- to borrow another 90s reference -- Michael Jordan's Chicago Bulls needed so many chances to get finally past the Bad Boy Pistons before breaking through and winning a title. The Bills aren't playing firework-y football right now but they are playing smart football and haven't been turning the ball over at all lately. Josh Allen has to believe he was snubbed for the MVP award based on the All-Pro voting and I expect another extremely clean game for the superstar quarterback. The Bills offensive line is probably the most unsung single unit in the entire NFL -- they've been extremely dominant all season long and the Buffalo run game with James Cook has been superb this season. The Chiefs have been a little leakier against the run lately. I would expect the Bills to take full advantage and try to turn this into a slugfest with Mahomes needing to be perfect on a limited number of drives to win. The Bills need to get lucky on the defensive injury front with some guys being able to play and I would never be surprised if the Chiefs won. But this game should come down to whoever has the ball last (assuming it's more than 12 seconds anyway, sheesh) and I think Buffalo finally gets it done.

The Pick: Bills (+2) at Chiefs

Anthony Dabbundo | The Ringer

... When it comes to the Bills, they unleash Allen as a runner in crucial games and in red zone situations. If you look at the Bills' high-leverage matches toward the end of the season, he scored almost every game. He scored against the Chiefs, 49ers (division clincher), Lions (twice), Rams (three times), and Ravens (twice).

If I had to pick a side in this one, I'd still trust the Chiefs defense more to get stops. Their special teams are less likely to screw up, and they are at home. The Chiefs were my not-so-bold preseason and pre-playoff pick to win the AFC, and I'll stand by them here.

Pick: Chiefs -1.5

Vinnie Iyer | Sporting News

The Chiefs will have home-field and be the more well-rounded team in all three phases. They also should benefit from getting homer calls and "non-calls" on penalties. Officiating favors the hosts, and Kansas City gets an extra lean there. Allen has knocked on the door of beating Mahomes on the playoff stage, and this may be the time he gets over the hump, but it feels like some of that old Mahomes magic is back right along with Kelce, as the two show no snooze button on that playoff alarm clock.

Pick: Chiefs win 27-24 and cover the spread (-1.5), with the total going OVER 48.5 points

Bill Bender | Sporting News

Can the Bills end the Chiefs' reign atop the AFC? Kansas City has won the past three playoff meetings since 2020, and the last two were decided by a combined total of nine points.

This is without a doubt Buffalo's best chance to do it. Buffalo won the Week 11 meeting 30-21 in a game where Josh Allen finished 27-of-40 for 262 yards, one TD, and an interception, adding 12 carries for 55 yards and a TD. Allen was the leading rusher, and the passing attack was balanced around Khalil Shakir.

Allen has a 71.4% completion percentage with seven TDs and one interception in those three playoff games against Kansas, but he was limited to 186 yards in last year's matchup. The Chiefs are 2-2 S/U when they allow 250 passing yards or more, and Allen had 262 passing yards in the first meeting. Kansas City did not get a sack. The Chiefs had eight sacks in the divisional playoff victory against Houston, and George Karlaftis had three sacks. Chris Jones and Karlaftis have to come up huge here.

Can Buffalo's pass rush — led by Greg Rousseau and Von Miller — force a few mistakes from Patrick Mahomes? The three-time Super Bowl winner is 16-3 in the postseason. Kansas City has not committed a turnover in its past eight games, but the running game has been hit or miss with Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco.

Buffalo was a 2.5-point favorite in the regular-season meeting, but that was at home. It's on Allen to end the Chiefs' playoff streak, and they are due to finally pull out the victory. Allen and Mahomes put on a show, and this will live up to expectations. It is a lot to overcome with Mahomes' track record. This time, however, Buffalo finally knocks off Kansas City.

Pick: Bills 28, Chiefs 26

Marcus Mosher | 33rd Team

This is the game we've been waiting for all season. The No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the AFC meeting for the right to go to the Super Bowl.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills met in Week 10, and Buffalo got a 30-21 win. However, that game was played in Orchard Park, and the Bills have had a massive home-field advantage all season, going 10-0 at Highmark Stadium. Playing in Arrowhead in late January is a whole different story.

Kansas City's offense has been better in recent weeks but still isn't overly dynamic. The Chiefs have not scored 30 points in a game this season, but they also haven't needed to put up that many points. Their defense has been outstanding, especially against top-tier teams in the AFC.

That said, against the Bills, who have scored 30 or more points in 13 of their 19 games, they might have to. Could that mean more deep shots to Xavier Worthy? Or will we see the Chiefs try to play keep away from Josh Allen?

It'll be fascinating to see what offensive strategy Andy Reid deploys this week. Buffalo's defense was gashed on the ground last week against Baltimore, so a run-heavy approach that features short passes could be the optimal strategy for Kansas City.

The key to this game will be turnovers, as is the case for most games. Buffalo has not turned the ball over in either of its playoff wins, but it forced three turnovers against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. These two teams are so close that one tipped interception or fumble could flip the game.

Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen do a great job of taking care of the football, especially in the playoffs. So whoever wins the turnover battle on Sunday will likely be advancing to New Orleans.

The case for the Chiefs is simple. They are used to playing in big games every week, and their home-field advantage is like no other. They've won their last 12 games at home, and it's hard to imagine that they will stop this week.

Expect a lower-scoring game with both teams leaning on the run game, short-passing attack, and their defenses to win. Take the Chiefs to win another nail-bitter and to reach the Super Bowl for the third straight season.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Bills 21

Bleacher Report

Hanford: I hope I'm wrong and Josh Allen gets it done on the road, but this just feels like the Chiefs' game to lose. The Bills have been a different team away from Buffalo this season. All four losses have been away from home. Their defense has been significantly worse on the road. And even Josh Allen hasn't been as good away from the confines of his home stadium.

I see Steve Spagnuolo dialing up everything he can to slow down Allen, and without a true No. 1 WR in Buffalo, I don't envision a ton of explosive plays from the Bills offense. Offensively, the Chiefs looked as they have all season against Houston, but they've never scored fewer than 25 points in two straight playoff games in Patrick Mahomes' career. Referee narrative nonsense aside, this game likely comes down to a handful of plays, and I like the Chiefs to continue to rise in those moments.

Chiefs 26, Bills 23

Michelino: It felt like we were always destined to arrive right back here with these two, now for the fourth time in their recent playoff history with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.

The Bills and Allen are on a special run, both in record and performance ATS. But it's fair to question if they have what it takes to dethrone the Chiefs in their building. Considering that Buffalo is up against Mahomes, a superior defense and getting little extra help over the top, it's hard to see the Bills pulling this upset off. I'll be rooting for Josh Allen, but my money is on history repeating itself with Andy and Mahomes.

Chiefs 24, Bills 20

O'Donnell: Buffalo handed Kansas City its only meaningful loss of this season. The facts, as they are, though, have the Josh Allen-led Bills 4-1 against Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs in the regular season, but 0-3 in the postseason throughout their careers.

From the gut, I struggle to rationalize the potential thought of looking back at this era of football and seeing Allen winless in the postseason against Mahomes. Sure, there's plenty more time in their careers, but it's also really damn difficult to do what the Chiefs are endeavoring to do this season.

Only three teams have ever made three straight Super Bowl appearances. I'll side with history in the making by giving Allen his first, legitimate signature win. And even if I'm wrong, I'll gladly take that point-and-a-half as insurance, because if the Bills don't prevail, the Chiefs are only winning by the skin of their teeth.

Bills 30, Chiefs 27

Sobleski: At this point, no one should bet against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. But here we are. The Bills, specifically quarterback Josh Allen, have never played better. Buffalo has the better overall roster. Allen is one of the few quarterbacks who can go punch-for-punch with Mahomes.

When these two teams met earlier this year, the Bills emerged victorious. Now, some might argue that the previous meeting was held in Buffalo. True. However, a balmy Sunday evening in Kansas City may actually favor Buffalo for the reasons previously stated. Cold and snow won't be a huge factor. The Bills are good enough to execute at a high level and knock off the Chiefs, thus ruining Kansas City's run toward a three-peat.

Bills 27, Chiefs 24

Other Expert Picks

Davenport: Chiefs

Gagnon: Bills

Knox: Chiefs

Moton: Chiefs