The Buffalo Bills (10-3) are 2.5-point underdogs this week against the Detroit Lions (12-1) in Ford Field at 4:25 pm. The game will air on CBS. This is the fourth time in the last 10 seasons that two teams with 10+ wins in Week 15 or earlier have met. All four games were decided by three points or less.
The Bills currently sit in the No. 2 position in the AFC playoff standings, while the Lions are No. 1 in the NFC.
Here's a list of additional notes for Sunday's clash:
- Lions are riding a franchise record 11-game winning streak
- Bills have won four straight games against the Lions
- Jared Goff has thrown 2+ touchdown passes in his last five home games
- Lions lead the NFL with a +183 point differential; Buffalo is second with a +129 point differential
- Bills have scored 30+ points in seven consecutive games - longest streak in team history
Bills vs Lions spread
If you read my Week 15 "NFL Underdogs" column, you'll see a deeper breakdown of this game. You'll also see that I'm taking the points with the Buffalo Bills as a short-road pup.
The Detroit Lions were able to get past Green Bay last Thursday despite their decimated defense. The Bills are a tougher test and I see Buffalo's stop unit stepping up after receiving a wake-up call against the Rams last week.
Buffalo +2.5.
Bills vs Lions moneyline
The Lions fight to the finish, but Buffalo is in bounce-back mode, with coach Sean McDermott owning a 69% win rate when coming off a loss during his tenure with the Bills.
Buffalo is more than capable of trading shots with Detroit, especially with the receiving corps at its healthiest in a long time.
Final score: Buffalo 28, Detroit 24.
Buffalo's defense won't be able to slow down Detroit's offense.
Florio: Lions, 30-27.
Simms: Lions, 41-38.
Why Brooke picked the Bills: Who doesn't love an early Christmas present? This one comes in the form of a potential Super Bowl preview that features the league's top two scoring offenses. What's interesting is these two units are quite different. Buffalo is led by its almighty quarterback, Josh Allen, who has done essentially everything and then some (SEE: his six-TD performance in the Week 14 loss) to help Buffalo clinch a postseason berth for the sixth straight year. The Bills are second in scoring (30.5 points per game) and rush TDs (24), as well as fifth in red-zone TD percentage (68.5) -- and they've found that success by taking care of the football (only seven giveaways this season) and protecting Allen (13 sacks taken). The Lions are led by a ferocious rushing duo and complementary passing attack that have combined to average nearly 400 yards per game in 2024. Sunday is shaping up to be a shootout, with both defenses experiencing recent setbacks. Buffalo just allowed a season-high 44 points and more than 450 yards to the Rams, while Detroit's unit is battered with injuries, notably along the defensive line. This is such a tough call, and I could talk myself in circles, so I'm going to defer to this note from NFL Research: Over the last 10 NFL seasons, there have been just four games between teams with 10-plus wins in Week 15 or earlier (we get TWO this weekend). Each of those games was decided by three or fewer points, and the road team won in all such matchups.
This is the game of the week, featuring two high-scoring offenses and two MVP candidates in Josh Allen and Jared Goff at quarterback. Both defenses have issues, which should make this a shootout. The Bills are playing consecutive road games, which isn't easy, but I think they will find a way to pull off a small upset behind Allen.
Pick: Bills 37, Lions 35
The Buffalo Bills turned what looked like a blowout into a Sunday thriller but came up short in a 44-42 loss to the Los Angeles Rams last week.
Buffalo is equipped to go score-for-score with the Detroit Lions, who field the league's highest-scoring offense. The Bills have scored at least 30 points in seven straight games.
In a battle between NFL heavyweights, this is close to a pick 'em game, and O'Donnell sided with the Bills to end the Lions' 11-game winning streak.
"This line keeps moving, so I'm going to keep it simple: the Bills win this game. Coming off arguably the most exciting game of the season—a Buffalo loss in Los Angeles to the Rams—we get a potential in-season Super Bowl-caliber matchup in Detroit," O'Donnell forecasted.
"The Lions haven't tasted defeat in three months to the day. Dan Campbell's team is the odds-on favorite (+260) to win the championship for a reason.
"This trip to Detroit caps off a gauntlet run for the Bills that's included games against the Chiefs, 49ers, and the cross-country loss to the Rams. This game represents the last real test of the season before they close out the year against AFC East rival bottom-dwellers, Patriots, Jets and Patriots. Josh Allen's MVP campaign (currently -400 at DraftKings) will cross into runaway territory with a win, and I'm here for it."
Predictions
Davenport: Lions
Gagnon: Lions
Hanford: Lions
Knox: Lions
Michelino: Bills
Moton: Lions
O'Donnell: Bills
Sobleski: Lions
ATS Consensus: Lions -1.5
Score Prediction: Lions 34, Bills 31
Josh Allen has been the best individual player in the NFL carrying his team. Jared Goff has been the best team player in the NFL being lifted by great support. Allen can try to take over another game, but a reeling Buffalo defense will have trouble with Detroit using the rushing attack to set up favorable downfield passing for Goff. Allen might need to operate one-dimensionally again, and that sets up a similar result for the Bills as Week 14 at the Rams.
Pick: Lions win 31-27 and cover the spread.
Is this a Super Bowl preview? The Lions (32.1 ppg) and Bills (30.5 ppg) are the only teams in the NFL averaging more than 30 points per game. Josh Allen should have success against an aggressive Detroit defense that has played well despite numerous injuries. Jared Goff has a 111.9 passer rating at home. Dan Campbell absolutely will go for it in crunch time, but so will the Bills. They have an 86.8-percent conversion percentage on fourth down. Who makes the game-changing play?
Pick: Lions 33, Bills 30
Is this a Super Bowl preview? We can only hope so, as the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions have two of the most fun offenses in the NFL. But it's been Detroit's defense that has stepped up this season. It'll have 10 days to prepare to stop Josh Allen, but with a decimated defensive line, that could be tough.
However, it's tough to pick against the Lions at home, especially considering how much the Bills struggled to stop the ground attack last week. Take the Lions to win and cover in Detroit.
Score Prediction: Lions 34, Bills 30
Bills storyline to watch: Can the Bills' defense rebound from last week's loss to the Rams? The unit is coming off its worst performance of the season, allowing 44 points and conversions on 11 of 15 third-down attempts. A significant challenge awaits in the league's highest-scoring offense (32.1 points per game). "I think we've got to get back to good fundamental football," coach Sean McDermott said on the defense bouncing back. "I think that's really where it starts and playing with a certain attitude." -- Alaina Getzenberg
Lions storyline to watch: The Lions are aware that this could be a Super Bowl LIX preview, but the mindset entering this week isn't any different. Three of the four NFC North teams have at least nine wins, so Detroit has been tested within its division en route to clinching a playoff spot already. Safety Kerby Joseph is one of the guys in the locker room who isn't allowing teammates to make this game any bigger than what it is. "Going against a team like this, I feel like they've got guys, but we've got guys also," Joseph told ESPN. "It's just a competition to go head-to-head against the best." -- Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: The Bills have scored 30-plus points in seven straight games, which is the longest streak in franchise history and one shy of the longest in NFL history.
Bold prediction: The Lions will block a punt. The Bills are allowing a 14% pressure rate on punts, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That's the second-highest rate in the league, behind only the 49ers. -- Walder
What's at stake: The Lions have a 75.7% chance to earn the No. 1 seed in the NFC, according to ESPN Analytics, which increases to 84.9% with a win. The Bills' odds of earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC increase to 30% with a win.
Fantasy X factor: Lions running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. This duo is on fire this season, averaging 32.6 touches and 34.6 fantasy points per game behind a Detroit offensive line that ranks 13th in run block win rate (71.9%). The Bills' defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 15 rankings. -- Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills have gone over their team total in 11 of 13 games, which is the highest mark in the NFL.
Kahler's pick: Lions 30, Bills 28
Moody's pick: Bills 33, Lions 30
Walder's pick: Lions 30, Bills 24
FPI prediction: DET, 57.5% (by an average of 2.6 points)
