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Game Predictions | Bills at Rams | Week 14

Jordan Phillips (97) and A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams, Week 1, September 8, 2022 at SoFi Stadium.
Jordan Phillips (97) and A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams, Week 1, September 8, 2022 at SoFi Stadium.

The Buffalo Bills (10-2) are 3.5-point favorites when they face the Los Angeles Rams (6-6) in SoFi Stadium on Sunday. The game begins at 4:25 pm on FOX.

Here's a list of additional notes for this week's game:

  • Bills have won seven consecutive games
  • Rams have lost their last two home games
  • Bills have won three consecutive games against the Rams
  • Bills have won their last 15 regular season games in December/January
  • Sean McDermott is 7-2 against teams from California
  • Unders are 5-2 in Buffalo's last seven road games per Pro Football Network
  • Rams have failed to cover four points in their past five home games per Pro Football Network

Bills vs Rams best bet

The 6-6 Los Angeles Rams are exactly who their record says they are. A middling club on both sides of the ball that's bouncing on the playoff bubble, and the Rams are receiving too much credit for recent road wins over the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints.

Los Angeles lacks a real home-field advantage at SoFi Stadium, and the travel shouldn't have a huge impact on the Buffalo Bills with just a single game since their Week 12 bye.

The Bills are better on both sides of the ball, and in particular, I value Buffalo scoring on 49.2% (second) of drives and turning 66.7% (fourth) of red-zone trips into touchdowns. Los Angeles respective sports a 20th-ranked 35.5% and 53.5% marks.

On the flip side, the Rams allow 45.5% (fifth-highest) of drives to result in points, while the Bills allow the eighth-fewest (33.1%).

The gap in quarterback play is also significant, with Bills quarterback Josh Allen throwing for higher yards per attempt and adjusted completion percentage than Rams QB Matthew Stafford. Of course, Allen also paces the NFL in adjusted EPA per play, while Stafford ranks a middling 19th.

Again, Buffalo is just too large a step up in class for Los Angeles, and the Bills have covered the number in 14 of their past 22 games.

Bills -3.5

Why Ali picked the Bills: Behind an MVP-caliber campaign from Josh Allen, a league-best +17 turnover margin and a physicality up front on par with any team in the league, the Bills have ripped off seven straight wins. This past Sunday night, Buffalo recorded its fifth 30-10er of the season. If that term is new to you (probably because I just made it up), a 30-10er is when a team scores 30 or more points in a game while limiting its opponent to 10 or fewer. No other club has even three such performances this year. Buffalo is blowing out folks left and right, impartial to division, conference or location. In fact, Allen has already won on the West Coast this season, posting a 30-10er (let's make it a thing!) on Seattle in Week 8, and enters this matchup with nearly as many dubs against NFC teams as Matthew Stafford since 2022 (11-2 vs. 14-13). For the Rams to deliver No. 17 loss No. 3, and keep pace in the NFC playoff race, they'll have to be patient and disciplined on both sides of the ball and match Buffalo's toughness in the trenches. But if James Cook is consistently hitting the line of scrimmage untouched, expect a long day for Sean McVay and Co.

The Rams' window might be getting more narrow.

Florio: Bills, 30-24.

Simms: Bills, 31-27.

The Buffalo Bills have won three consecutive games by nine or more points. After knocking off the then-undefeated Kansas City Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11, they're, arguably, the AFC's best team.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams are an inconsistent club that has alternated wins and losses since Week 9.

Even more concerning about the Rams in a matchup with the league's second-highest scoring team, they haven't scored more than 21 points in their last two outings.

Lastly, quarterback Matthew Stafford suffered a lateral ankle sprain in the 21-14 victory over the New Orleans Saints.

O'Donnell has been riding with the Bills this season, and he saw no reason to jump off the circling wagons as Buffalo looks to win its eighth consecutive game.

"What gorydamn madness is this? Buffalo, winners of seven straight games by an average margin of 13.5 points, are only laying four points in L.A. to a Rams team fighting for its playoff hopes?" he said.

"Something is off here. The Rams are 1-7 in their last eight against top 10 defenses and 1-4 ATS in their last five against top 10 defenses. It's a trap.

"No.

"Josh Allen is playing on another level right now, and while I'm scared the Bills may be peaking too soon when it comes to my Super Bowl pick (yes, again), we're not in January yet.

"I'm not scared of a net or a seemingly incomplete Death Star above the forest moon of Endor. No traps. Lay these bloodydamn points."

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Bills

Michelino: Rams

Moton: Bills

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Rams

ATS Consensus: Bills -4

Score Prediction: Bills 30, Rams 23

Bills storyline to watch: The Bills are looking to extend a seven-game winning streak when they head out west. A win would tie the second-longest streak in franchise history. To do that, Buffalo's run defense will be tested again facing Rams running back Kyren Williams, who has 24 straight games with at least 50 scrimmage yards, the second-longest active streak in the NFL. He also is coming off a 100-yard rushing performance. The Bills' defense gave up the second-most yards post-contact per rush (3.00) last week in the snow. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Rams storyline to watch: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford's 77 Total QBR in his past three games is the second best in the NFL in that span, second only to Bills quarterback Josh Allen, according to ESPN Research. Stafford has eight passing touchdowns in his past three games, the second most in the NFL since Week 11. He hasn't thrown an interception in those three games. -- Sarah Barshop

Stat to know: The Rams have back-to-back home losses (Dolphins in Week 10 and Eagles in Week 12). They're looking to avoid matching their longest home losing streak since Sean McVay became coach in 2017.

Bold prediction: Bills backup running back Ray Davis will score a touchdown. It's mostly just a gut feeling, but I expect the Bills to get out to a bit of a lead, and the Rams' run defense ranks 28th in EPA (3.31). -- Walder

What's at stake: The Bills' odds to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC improve to 53% with a win and fall to 26% with a loss (independent of other results), according to ESPN Analytics. The Rams' chances at the NFC playoffs increase to 34% with a win and fall to 16% with a loss.

Fantasy X factor: Bills running back James Cook. Cook is positioned for another big game against a Rams defense that allows the fifth-most rushing yards per game to running backs (144.2). He scored 19-plus fantasy points in three of his past five games and should be busy as both a runner and receiver. See Week 14 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Rams are 3-9 ATS in the first quarter this season. Rams first-half unders are 9-3.

Kahler's pick: Bills 34, Rams 28

Moody's pick: Bills 34, Rams 24

Walder's pick: Bills 27, Rams 20

FPI prediction: BUF, 63.1% (by an average of 5.1 points)

This is a long trip for the Bills after locking up the division last week. But they are playing for much more than that. The Rams are still in their division race, so this is big for them as well. The way Josh Allen is playing, the Rams will have a tough time slowing down this offense. Look for the Bills to keep rolling.

Pick: Bills 29, Rams 23

The Bills cannot be stopped by the Rams' young defense — not with Josh Allen rolling and his offensive line protecting him well and also opening up the explosive running game for James Cook. The Rams can handle more limited offenses, but Buffalo, even with injuries around Allen, isn't one of them. Los Angeles continued lack of home-field edge burns it again.

Pick: Bills win 28-20 and cover the spread.

Scroll to see the best photos from Thursday practice as the Buffalo Bills prepare to face the Los Angeles Rams.

The Bills are on a seven-game win streak, and they have scored 30 or more points in six straight games. They are still in the hunt for home-field advantage, so a let-down game on the West Coast seems improbable given the Rams are 3-3 S/U at home this season. Los Angeles allows 114.2 rushing yards per game this season. James Cook should have a big game here.

Pick: Bills 34, Rams 22

The Buffalo Bills looked dominant on Sunday Night Football, taking down the 49ers with ease. They'll face another NFC West team in Week 14, with the Los Angeles Rams looking to steal the division.

Matthew Stafford is always a threat, especially when his receivers are healthy. But the Bills' run game could be too much for the Rams' smaller defensive line to handle. Expect Los Angeles to stay in this game, but the Bills to win a close one on the road.

Score Prediction: Bills 27, Rams 24

Scroll to see the best photos from Friday practice as the Buffalo Bills prepare to face the Los Angeles Rams.

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