The Buffalo Bills are 1.0-point underdogs heading into Sunday's massive AFC Divisional Round showdown against the Baltimore Ravens at Highmark Stadium. The game will start at 6:30 pm on CBS. This will be the first time the Bills will be an underdog in a home playoff game in the Super Bowl era.
Here's a list of additional notes for Sunday's matchup:
- Bills are 16-5 at home all-time in the postseason
- Bills are 9-0 at home in 2024
- Ravens are 6-3 on the road in 2024
- Sean McDermott is 6-2 at home in the postseason
- John Harbaugh has eight road playoff wins - the most in NFL history
Postseason home pups have proved profitable in recent years, boasting a 5-3 SU record and a 6-2 ATS count since 2020. Take it back to 2015, and home underdogs have come through at a 75% clip (10-3-1 ATS). Allen and the Bills are the toughest test the Ravens stop unit has faced in while. Baltimore finished the schedule against offenses rated 19th, 23rd, 28th and 32nd in EPA per play and then faced the Steelers' one-dimensional playbook again in the Wild Card Round. We did see Baltimore give up points against capable offense, including two shootouts with Cincinnati, 24 points to the Eagles, and 31 points to Tampa Bay. Buffalo enters the second round of the tournament right behind Baltimore at the top of those advanced offensive metrics and can gouge the Ravens for gains on the ground and through the air.
Pick: Buffalo +1.5
Why Tom picked the Ravens: I just have a feeling about Lamar Jackson -- call it a hunch, really -- based on him being one of the best football players on the planet right now. The fact that this seems like something of a risky choice says a lot about the Bills, who are healthy and led by Josh Allen, one of the few people who could reasonably block Jackson from winning his second consecutive (and third overall) MVP. There is also Buffalo's utter dominance at Highmark Stadium, even beyond this season's 8-0 record there: Going back through 2020, the Bills boast the NFL's best combined home winning percentage (.820) and point differential (a stunning mark of 577), including the playoffs. There are many reasons not to read too much into Baltimore's 35-10 pasting of Buffalo in Week 4 (including the absences in that game of key Bills defenders Matt Milano, Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson), but the biggest mitigating factor might be the Maryland setting.
Can the Buffalo offense keep pace with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry? Yes, but we like the Ravens in a close one.
Florio: Ravens, 31-28.
Simms: Ravens, 30-28.
It's the game of the week. The two NFL MVP favorites face off in Buffalo, and it's the road team that's actually favored! If the line closes like this, it would mark the first time since the merger that the Bills were underdogs in a home playoff game.
One of the more underrated storylines from Wild Card Weekend was the Bills' offensive performance vs. the Broncos. Not only did they completely dominate time of possession, but they relied on the run in the first half with 126 rushing yards, then Josh Allen came out throwing in the second half -- accounting for 203 of his eventual 272 passing yards, and both of his passing touchdowns in the final two quarters. The Bills' efficient, multifaceted offense really stood out, but it wasn't a major headline because the game itself wasn't close. The same can be said for the Ravens, as they rushed their way past the Pittsburgh Steelers. In fact, the Ravens had the third-best rushing yards differential in a playoff game all time (+270).
I'm sure Allen and Lamar Jackson are going to put on a show, so this game is going to come down to which defense plays better. Baltimore's defense struggled at times this year, but have you noticed how well this unit has played recently? Week 11 was the turning point. Since then, the Ravens defense ranks No. 1 in scoring defense, total defense and third-down defense. Previously, they ranked 25th or worse in each category. That's going to be the difference. Ravens win in Buffalo.
The pick: Ravens -1
Projected score: Ravens 27-24
Even though the Buffalo Bills have a better record than the Baltimore Ravens, they're the underdogs in this matchup. The Bills are home underdogs for the first time in a long time, which means they could head into this game with a chip on their shoulder.
Excluding a Week 18 defeat with backups in for most of the contest, the Bills have only lost one game since Week 6, a road matchup with the Los Angeles Rams.
Nonetheless, oddsmakers undoubtedly factored in the Bills' 35-10 road loss to the Ravens in Week 4.
With a couple of additions and returning players for the Bills, Hanford and O'Donnell like Buffalo to avenge its regular-season loss to Baltimore.
Wes: Let's start with what we saw this year: The Ravens beat the Bills in Baltimore 35-10 back in Week 4. Derrick Henry ran for 199 yards in that game. The Ravens brought in Henry for games like that and, more importantly, this playoff game. Is that enough to warrant 1.5 points on the road against a Bills team that lost only one meaningful game in its last 12?
Ian: While I understand it, I'm still shocked to see Buffalo as an underdog in a home playoff game. That hasn't happened to the Bills since 1967. The Bills certainly left a lot to be desired in the Week 4 blowout, and this is a Ravens team that has won five straight games by at least 14 points, but I find it hard to believe Josh Allen won't use that lopsided loss as extra motivation this time around. They'll need to make some adjustments, though, namely against Derrick Henry. How do you see them doing that?
Predictions
Davenport: Bills
Gagnon: Bills
Hanford: Bills
Knox: Bills
Michelino: Bills
Moton: Ravens
O'Donnell: Bills
Sobleski: Ravens
ATS Consensus: Bills +1.5
Score Prediction: Bills 31, Ravens 28
For the second consecutive season, Buffalo will host the final game of the divisional round in one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the entire season. Buffalo lost by three at home to Kansas City last year as a three-point favorite. The betting markets opened with this game as a toss-up, but the market has shifted ever so slightly toward Baltimore. It's really loved the Ravens in the last month; the spreads for their past four games have moved in favor of Baltimore.
Like two of the three divisional-round matchups before it, this is a regular-season rematch. These two teams met in Baltimore in Week 4, and the game was basically over after Derrick Henry ran 87 yards for a touchdown on the Ravens' first offensive snap of the game. Baltimore took a quick 21-3 lead on its first three drives and cruised to a win. The Bills couldn't really stop the Ravens' run offense that night, and that's where any analysis of this matchup should begin.
Buffalo didn't have linebackers Matt Milano or Terrel Bernard for the first game. Nickel corner Taron Johnson also missed because of injury. All three of them are important to the Buffalo run defense and are healthy now. It's true that the perceived weakness of the Buffalo defense is in the middle of the field. But the run defense won't be as bad as it was in that Week 4 road game. The Bills rank fifth in adjusted line yards allowed—a metric that judges how defensive lines hold up in the run game. Safeties Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin haven't graded out well in coverage, but they have performed well as two of the Bills' top run defenders, per PFF. ...
In crucial passing downs, I still have more trust in Allen at home with his full complement of receivers than I have in Jackson on the road without Flowers. I'm always wary of a small sample of playoff data, but Allen's playoff numbers in the divisional round and later are considerably superior to Jackson's. That could make all the difference on Sunday.
Verdict: Bet Buffalo moneyline (+100).
The Ravens rolled in the Week 4 meeting, 35-10, but that game was in Baltimore against an injury-hampered Bills defense. They stopped the run well, shutting down both James Cook and Josh Allen on the ground.
The Bills, meanwhile, were run over badly by Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. The difference and the domination won't be the same, but Jackson is steadier with downfield passing and the Bills remain much more vulnerable than the Ravens against running backs. Jackson has been the better MVP-candidate QB by every key metric and won't be fazed with a big road shot after boosting his playoff confidence vs. the Steelers.
Pick: Ravens win 27-24 and cover the spread.
How much can be used from the Week 4 matchup? The Ravens won 35-10 in the Sunday Night Football game at Baltimore, and Derrick Henry had 24 carries for 199 yards and a TD. In six career games against the Bills, Henry averages 99 yards with eight total rushing TDs. That will be the first priority for Buffalo. Lamar Jackson had 54 rushing yards and three total TDs in that game, and Baltimore presents the same challenge, even on the road.
Josh Allen took three sacks and didn't throw a TD in the first meeting, but he has been on target at home all season. He had 17 TDs, three interceptions, and a 107.8 rating in the regular season, and he had 272 yards and two TDs in the wild-card round. He'll need to make plays in the running game, too, and one turnover could be the difference in this game. Which quarterback will get a chance to lead their team to an AFC championship? The Ravens were 4-3 S/U in games with spreads of three points or less. The Bills were 4-4 S/U in the same situation. It truly is a coin flip, but the Bills were our pick to reach the Super Bowl. We can't turn back on that now.
Pick: Bills 28, Ravens 26
The best game of the weekend features one of the top quarterback matchups you'll ever see in the Divisional Round. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have been the two best quarterbacks in the NFL this season, and both were terrific in Round 1. While Allen has been the better postseason quarterback in previous seasons, Jackson has conquered some of his playoff demons in the last two years.
But this game isn't just about Jackson vs. Allen. It's the Baltimore Ravens against the Buffalo Bills. While the Bills finished the regular season with a better record, the Ravens are the more talented team. Their defense has really improved in the second half of the season, and they have one of the league's top run-stopping units.
Buffalo crushed Denver on the ground last week, but don't expect that to be the case in Round 2. Both teams should put up a bunch of points, but the Ravens have more playmakers on defense and more talent in their secondary, which should allow them to get more stops.
What makes this game tough to predict is that the Ravens crushed the Bills earlier in the season on primetime. But the Bills are just a different team at home (9-0 at Highmark Stadium this season). It's expected to be incredibly cold this weekend in Buffalo, but that might favor the Ravens, who have the better run defense and power run game behind Derrick Henry.
Expect this to be a back-and-forth game all afternoon, but for the Ravens to have just enough on defense to advance to the AFC Championship Game for the second consecutive year.
Score Prediction: Ravens 31, Bills 28
Ravens storyline to watch: With the cold and wind in Buffalo, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen might have to rely on their legs -- and they're the best at doing that at this point in the season. Allen has the most rushing yards by a quarterback in NFL postseason history (609) and Jackson ranks second (602). But it could be difficult to run against the Ravens' defense, which has given up 239 rushing yards to QBs this season (fifth fewest), and the Bills, who have given up 306 rushing yards to QBs (11th fewest). -- Jamison Hensley
Bills storyline to watch: Can the Bills get out of the divisional round for the first time since the 2020 season? Though much of the focus is on MVP favorites at quarterback, limiting running back Derrick Henry will be key. The Bills will have to put up a better performance than they did in a Week 4 loss at Baltimore when Henry ran for 199 yards, the most by any player against the Bills since Sean McDermott became Buffalo's coach in 2017. This is a much healthier team this time around, with starting linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano and nickel corner Taron Johnson set to play after sitting out the previous meeting. But as defensive tackle DaQuan Jones described Henry, "He's just a freak of nature." -- Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills and Ravens had the exact same point differential in the regular season (plus-157), which was tied for first in the AFC. This is the seventh matchup in postseason history between teams that had the same regular-season point differential, and the first since Super Bowl LII between the Eagles and Patriots after the 2017 season. -- ESPN Research
Bold prediction: Jackson will rush at least 12 times for at least 70 yards. Baltimore showed a willingness last week against Pittsburgh to let Jackson run as much as needed in tandem with Henry. I think that will be their game plan for the entire postseason. And the Bills have given up 0.45 EPA per quarterback designed run or scramble, higher than the league average. -- Walder
Matchup X factor: Bills safety Taylor Rapp. His ability to run the alleys and tackle in space is critical to limiting the explosive play ability of Henry. Including the playoffs, Henry's 49 rushes of 10 or more yards are tied for the most in the league with Saquon Barkley. The Bills have to get Henry on the ground when he breaks past the second level. -- Bowen
Betting nugget: The Bills have been favored in 42 straight home games, the longest active streak in the NFL. The last time the Bills closed as home underdogs was in Week 17 of 2020 against the Dolphins (+3). Read more. -- ESPN Research
Officiating nugget: Referee Carl Cheffers has led two of the past four Super Bowl crews and is among a small group of candidates to reprise that role this year in New Orleans. Of note for this game: Cheffers threw only two flags during the regular season for roughing the passer, the fewest in the NFL. -- Seifert
Kahler's pick: Ravens 28, Bills 25
Moody's pick: Ravens 30, Bills 23
Walder's pick: Ravens 31, Bills 27
FPI prediction: BUF, 50.3% (by an average of 0.3 points)
