The Buffalo Bills are 8.5-point favorites against the Denver Broncos in Sunday's Wild Card game at Highmark Stadium. The game starts at 1 pm and will air on CBS.

The Bills have won their last four Wild Card playoff games. Here's a list of additional notes or Sunday's matchup:

• Bills are 15-5 at home in the postseason all-time
• Bills are 5-2 at home in the postseason under Sean McDermott
• Denver head coach Sean Payton is 4-2 in the Wild Card round all-time
• Denver DC Vance Joseph is 2-0 when facing Josh Allen as a DC/HC
• Broncos were 8-0 vs. teams below .500 and 2-7 vs. teams .500 or better in 2024

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Around the NFL | NFL.com

Why Dan picked the Bills: It's been a fun ride for Sean Payton and Bo Nix in their first year together. I don't see Buffalo's season ending without a playoff win, though. The odds are stacked against Denver. Rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 in road playoff games since 2015, per NFL Research, and Payton is 1-5 in his career on the road in the postseason. The Broncos were great at handling their business against lesser teams, but they went just 2-7 against squads that finished the regular season at .500 or better, with one of those wins coming last week against a Chiefs team that was resting starters. Buffalo's winning percentage happens to be .765.

Maybe if top MVP candidate Josh Allen falls on his face, things could take a surprising turn. However, this would be an absolutely shocking time for Allen to faceplant. Vance Joseph's defense blitzes at the fourth-highest rate in the league (37.3%), but Allen boasts the third-highest passer rating against the blitz (123.2) with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 16:1. The 2024 Bills have won by avoiding mistakes that bogged them down in the past -- in fact, they are the only team in the Super Bowl era to allow fewer than one sack and fewer than one takeaway per game. It's going to take an incredible effort from DPOY contender Pat Surtain II and Co. to quiet the league's second-ranked scoring offense, and I don't see it happening in Buffalo, where the Bills haven't lost all season.

Mike Florio & Chris Simms | Pro Football Talk

If the Broncos commit to the run — and if they can successfully move the chains and shorten the game — they can keep it close. They just might do more than that.

Florio: Bills, 30-23.

Simms: Bills, 38-21.

Pete Prisco | CBS Sports

The Broncos are the surprise team in these playoffs. They've gotten here behind a good defense that can rush the passer. That defense will be challenged by Josh Allen in a big way. Orchard Park, New York, is a tough place to make your first playoff start for Denver quarterback Bo Nix. He's been impressive this season, but this is a tough ask. The Bills take it, but the Denver defense will keep them in it.

Pick: Bills 23, Broncos 16

Anthony Dabbundo | The Ringer

I'm basically disregarding everything that the Bills have done offensively in their last three games. Josh Allen hinted that Buffalo was saving stuff for the playoffs after their shaky home win against the Patriots, and the last two games against the Jets and Patriots were glorified exhibitions. The Bills have typically unleashed Allen as a scrambler and a runner in the high-leverage games, turning a very good offense into a powerhouse.

The Broncos defense prefers to apply pressure and play man coverage behind it. I doubt how effective this strategy will be against Allen, who has excelled against both man coverage and the blitz this season. When blitzed, Allen has averaged 8 yards per attempt, thrown 16 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. He has 12 big-time throws to one turnover-worthy play.

Even though the Bills lack an elite receiver, the offense ranks fifth in EPA per dropback against man coverage.

I acknowledge that Denver is one of the league's top four defenses by DVOA, but there have been enough concerning games from the secondary to question just how elite the unit really is. As always, so much of elite defense is opponent-driven. Herbert had his way in both Chargers-Broncos games. Burrow led Cincinnati to 30 points and threw for 412 yards against Denver. Lamar Jackson's offense scored 41 points. Jameis Winston put up 32 points and 497 yards against them on Monday Night Football.

If Buffalo takes the lead in this game, how will Bo Nix respond on the road in his first playoff start? Nix struggled against the heavy zone defenses of the Colts and Chargers. The Broncos offense is 20th in EPA per dropback against zone this year (excluding Week 18 vs. the Chiefs' backups).

Nix should find success using his legs in this game if the Broncos fall behind. It's been a consistent source of offense for the Broncos. If Denver can play from the front, run the ball, and have long, methodical drives, this game could be shortened and remain close.

But there's significant potential for Denver to struggle. Facing a zone-heavy defense designed to limit big plays, target the Broncos running backs' receiving props and Nix in the run game.

Verdict: Lean Bills -9

Props: Bo Nix over 24.5 rush yards (-110), Josh Allen over 39.5 rush yards (-110)

Marcus Mosher | 33rd Team

The Buffalo Bills did not get an easy matchup in Round 1, as they'll face the Denver Broncos, who have one of the league's top defenses. Denver has the secondary and the pass rush to disrupt Josh Allen, who might be on the verge of winning his first NFL MVP Award.

However, we know that the Bills will be able to score points, and the fact that this game is in Buffalo should benefit them greatly. The real story here is how Bo Nix, a rookie quarterback, will fare in his first NFL playoff game. The good news for Nix is that Sean Payton is one of the league's top head coaches, and he'll certainly come up with a good game plan to help his young quarterback.

Don't be surprised if Nix plays well, considering all of his college experience, and the fact that he's performed so well during the last two months has to give Denver confidence that it can win this game.

Buffalo's defense can be leaky, and don't be surprised if Denver moves the ball well in this matchup. Still, Allen has been too good this year at home, and with essentially a week off to prepare for this game, look for the Bills to score enough to take care of business and advance to Round 2. Expect a tight game, but expect the Bills to pull away late.

Score Prediction: Bills 28, Broncos 24

Vinnie Iyer | Sporting News

The Bills are 8-0 at home this season, and the Broncos are 4-5 on the road. Josh Allen has led Buffalo to an average margin of victory of 17 points when playing in Orchard Park. The Broncos' pass defense isn't built to slow down Allen, while Buffalo gets a break against rookie Bo Nix making his first playoff start in a hostile environment. The Bills won't get caught looking ahead to the Ravens, instead making a strong opening statement.

Pick: Bills win 34-17 and cover the spread.

Bill Bender | Sporting News

Sean Payton is back in the playoffs with the Broncos. He's 9-8 S/U in the postseason, and Nix has been impressive as a rookie. That said, Denver was just 4-5 S/U on the road, where Nix had an 85.8 passer rating.

Expect Buffalo to lean on the run early against a stingy Denver defense. The Broncos were 2-6 S/U this season when they allowed more than 100 yards rushing, and Josh Allen presents a problem with scrambling in the pocket. Buffalo will make a strong opening statement in the wild-card round here. Buffalo was 6-0 S/U and 3-3 ATS when favored by six points or more this season.

Pick: Bills 31, Broncos 21

Rohit Ponnaiya | Covers.com

At first glance, it might be tempting to take the points with the Denver Broncos, who went an NFL-best 12-5 against the spread during the regular season.

That said, the Broncos lack playoff experience and have struggled against quality opponents. If you take out their Week 18 win against Kansas City's backups, Denver went 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS against teams that finished the season .500 or better.

Despite leading the league in defensive EPA, the Broncos looked vulnerable in that area over the last month. The Chargers scored 34 points and averaged 6.4 yards per play against them in Week 16, and the Bengals torched them for 499 yards and 30 points in Week 17. Even the lowly Browns rolled up 552 yards and 32 points when they traveled to Denver on December 2.

If the Broncos couldn't contain Cleveland, they won't be able to slow down a Buffalo Bills offense that had the highest EPA/play in the NFL before resting MVP favorite Josh Allen in Week 18.

Denver's defense led the NFL in pressures (195) and sacks (63) but Buffalo's stout offensive line allowed the second-fewest pressures (93) and a league-low 14 sacks. In the back end, cornerback Patrick Surtain can lock up No. 1 wide receivers, but Allen spreads the ball around and excels against man coverage.

The Bills have shown cracks on defense, but Denver isn't built to take advantage of them. When you look at the teams that were able to move the ball against Buffalo during the second half of the season — Miami, Detroit, and the Rams — they all have significantly better weapons than Denver.

The Broncos haven't been able to establish the run and have placed a heavy burden on quarterback Bo Nix. While Nix looked impressive down the stretch, he's still a rookie QB playing on the road in the playoffs, and he doesn't have much help around him.

My best bet: Bills -9

ESPN

Broncos storyline to watch: The Broncos, who ended an eight-year playoff drought, get another crack at one of the AFC's top quarterbacks. The Broncos didn't beat Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes (he didn't start last week's game), Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert this season. Now, they get Josh Allen, who has as many rushing touchdowns himself (12) as the Broncos do as a team. The Broncos have to limit Allen from what they call "the second act" plays -- the completions and runs after his initial reads are taken away. -- Jeff Legwold

Bills storyline to watch: The Bills have thrived in the wild-card round, going 4-1 with Allen starting. The big question for this team going into the playoffs, however, is if the defense can get off the field. The Bills' defense is the fourth worst in third down conversion percentage allowed (43.8%), and taking down the quarterback has been an issue (39 sacks, tied for 18th). On the other side, rookie quarterback Bo Nix has avoided sacks (24, tied for third fewest). "[Nix] seems extremely poised for a young quarterback, and I've been very impressed with his mobility, his ability to extend plays," Bills coach Sean McDermott said. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The Bills have turned over the ball only eight times in the regular season, which is tied with the 2019 Saints for the fewest since turnovers were first tracked in 1933. -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Allen will convert at least five first downs or score a touchdown with his legs. Cornerback Pat Surtain II might be able to shut down a receiver on most plays, but Allen has plenty of other ways to hurt a defense. I expect him to scramble a lot Sunday despite the Broncos allowing the third-least rushing yards per game (96.4). -- Walder

Matchup X factor: Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton. The Broncos can create open voids for Sutton to run the deep in-breaking concepts against a Bills defense that played zone coverage on more than 68% of opponent dropbacks. Sutton had 32 receptions of 15 or more yards this season, and the Broncos will need those types of plays to upset the Bills. -- Bowen

Betting nugget: Over the past 10 seasons, rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 outright and 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in road playoff games.

Officiating nugget: Referee Bill Vinovich's regular-season crews are historically one of the stingiest in the NFL, and 2024 was no exception. His crew averaged a league-low 12.9 flags per game. That's good news for both teams. The Bills (18th) and Broncos (21st) both ranked in the upper half of the NFL in total flags this season. -- Seifert

Kahler's pick: Bills 28, Broncos 21

Moody's pick: Broncos 27, Bills 24

Walder's pick: Bills 28, Broncos 17

FPI prediction: BUF, 68.1% (by an average of 7.1 points)

Bleacher Report

The Buffalo Bills are heavy favorites over the Denver Broncos, who have exceeded expectations with rookie quarterback Bo Nix at the helm. After a win over the Kansas City Chiefs backups, Denver will face arguably its toughest opponent of the 2024 campaign.

With that said, the Broncos are one of three teams with a league-leading 12-5 record ATS. They've only lost by more than eight points once, against the Baltimore Ravens (41-10).

The Broncos could hang with quality opponents, but like the Ravens, the Bills may be too far out of their league on a competitive level.

"I had to pare this down from nearly 500 words as I realized I was trying to convince myself which team to pick," O'Donnell said. "So, here's what matters. The Bills haven't lost their opening-round playoff game since Josh Allen's postseason debut five years ago.

"The Broncos allowed only 18.3 points per game this season, the third-best mark leaguewide. But they were 1-7 against teams with a winning record this season, not including the Week 18 victory over the Chiefs' backups. An 8.5-point line feels like a lot, but seven of eight panelists are on Buffalo for a reason.

"Even if the Bills aren't dominant offensively, they should be able to force and/or capitalize on Denver turnovers and/or mistakes, particularly late in the game. Whether via a runaway Allen performance or an opportunistic team effort, the Bills are more than capable of covering a two-score spread at home as they jump-start their Super Bowl run."

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Bills

Michelino: Broncos

Moton: Bills

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Bills

ATS Consensus: Bills -8.5

Score Prediction: Bills 30, Broncos 20