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Game Predictions | Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets | Week 17

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The Buffalo Bills (12-3) are 9.0-point favorites this week against the New York Jets (4-11). Game time is set for 1 pm at Highmark Stadium and will air on CBS. The Bills can clinch the No. 2 seed for the AFC playoffs with a victory.

Here's a list of additional notes for Sunday's game:

  • Bills have won 10 consecutive regular season games
  • Bills have won their last four home games against the NY Jets
  • NY Jets have lost five of their last six games
  • Aaron Rodgers has 499 career touchdown passes and needs one more to become the sixth NFL quarterback to reach 500

Why Brooke picked the Bills: When the 2024 schedule came out in May, this Week 17 tilt looked like it might decide the AFC East. Well, we kissed that notion goodbye before Halloween. The Bills enter Sunday having won nine of their last 10 games. Josh Allen and the offense struggled a bit offensively last time out, scoring fewer than 30 points for the first time since their Week 6 meeting with ... the Jets. With Allen playing at an MVP level and James Cook rushing for 100-plus yards in back-to-back games, there are few concerns about this offense, though, even against a Jets D that's allowing the sixth-fewest yards per game and 22.9 points per contest. However, there is reason for concern when it comes to Buffalo's banged-up defense; starting safeties Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin, who missed the Bills' last two games, were listed as limited in Wednesday's practice report, as was LB Matt Milano, who also was sidelined in Week 16. Will Buffalo be without some of its key defensive players again this week, especially now that the top seed in the AFC is off the table? And speaking of banged up, 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a knee injury but should be good to go -- positive news for a Jets offense that has shown signs of life since the team's Week 12 bye. As we've seen all season, division games are weird, and this one could be yet another example. But even if the Bills aren't at full strength, I trust their offense to do enough with Allen leading the way.

Buffalo still has work to do to nail down the No. 2 seed.

Florio: Bills, 27-13.

Simms: Bills, 34-24.

The Bills got too close for comfort against the Patriots, having a bit of a sloppy divisional home game with Josh Allen going from white hot to rather ice cold. The Jets also stopped their offensive momentum vs. the Rams. Something has to give, and it's easy to trust Allen over Aaron Rodgers this season.

Pick: Bills win 30-14 and cover the spread.

Scroll to see the best photos from Thursday's practice as the Buffalo Bills prepare to face the New York Jets. This gallery is presented by T-Mark.

... Buffalo will have a lot to play for here against the Jets, who have played better in the second half of the season. The Jets still aren't a good team, and the Bills have a lot at stake, so expect Buffalo to play with a sense of urgency.

However, taking the Bills on the point spread seems foolish, as that spread is just too big for a divisional contest, as we saw last week against the Patriots. Take the Bills to win, but not cover in Week 17.

Score Prediction: Bills 28, Jets 20

The Bills looked flat in their victory over the Patriots, but found a way to win it. The Jets are playing out the string and didn't do much against the Rams last week. Look for Josh Allen to have a big day against a defense that isn't as good as in the past. Bills big.

Pick: Bills 31, Jets 18

Jets storyline to watch: There's nothing on the line for the Jets, except some individual milestones: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers needs one touchdown pass to become the fifth player in NFL history to reach 500. Wide receiver Garrett Wilson needs 13 receiving yards to hit 1,000 for the third straight season, something no Jets receiver has done since 1966-1968 (George Sauer). Davante Adams needs 72 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the fourth straight season and the sixth time in the past seven seasons. -- Rich Cimini

Bills storyline to watch: While Josh Allen had success against the Jets earlier this season, it is a team that has given him trouble in the past. He has thrown 14 touchdowns to 11 interceptions in 12 games, but he has beaten them in eight of those meetings. A win over the Jets would boost Allen's résumé for his first MVP award after Lamar Jackson's strong outing against the Texans on Christmas. -- Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The Bills are 23-5 in division games since 2020, which is the second-best record in that span (Kansas City is 24-5). The Jets are 5-23 in division games since 2020, which is the worst record in that span. -- ESPN Research

Bold prediction: Jets defensive tackle Quinnen Williams will record at least three pressures. He ranks second in pass rush win rate among defensive tackles over the past three weeks, but Allen is awfully hard to sack. Hence, the pressures -- even if they don't result in sacks. -- Walder

What's at stake: The Bills are no longer in the running for the No. 1 seed in the AFC after the Chiefs' win over the Steelers on Christmas. But Buffalo can lock up No. 2 with a win over the Jets on Sunday.

Fantasy X factor: Adams. He has been on fire lately, recording 11 or more targets and 17 or more fantasy points in four straight games. Now, Rodgers and Adams can test their chemistry against the Bills' defense, which is in the top 10 for most receiving yards and touchdowns to receivers since Week 12. See Week 17 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Bills are 7-0 outright at home. Six of those seven games have gone over the total.

Kahler's pick: Bills 33, Jets 20

Moody's pick: Bills 34, Jets 23

Walder's pick: Bills 30, Jets 12

FPI prediction: BUF, 71.6% (by an average of 8.5 points)

My analysis

The Buffalo Bills are coming off a 24-21 win against the Patriots. It was a rare poor performance from a usually efficient Bills offense and freezing cold temperatures played a part. Although there's an 80% chance of rain for this game, wind isn't expected to be a factor and it will be 50 degrees which is practically balmy for this time of the year in Buffalo.

Before last week, Buffalo had scored 30 or more points in eight straight contests, averaging 35 points per game. This is an explosive Bills attack that leads the league in EPA/play while ranking second in both dropback and rush EPA.

The New York Jets entered this season expected to be one of the top defensive teams in the NFL. However, they've really struggled over the last couple of months and are 30th in the league in defensive EPA since Week 7.

They are also extremely banged up on that side of the ball with linebacker C.J. Mosley on the IR and five other starters listed as questionable, including All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner.

It will also be tough for the Jets to drum up motivation for this game since they were eliminated from the playoffs weeks ago despite coming into the year with Super Bowl aspirations. Meanwhile, Buffalo has plenty of incentive to play hard since a win would clinch the No. 2 seed and a big performance from QB Josh Allen could secure his first MVP Award.

My best bet

Bills team total Over 27.5

Jets vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Early money came in on the Jets, bringing the spread off the key number of 10 and down to 8.5 by Thursday.
  • The lookahead total for this game had the total at 48.5 but it reopened 2.5 points lower after both offenses struggled in Week 16.
  • The Bills are 9-1 straight up and 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games.
  • The Jets O-line is banged up with RT Morgan Moses and RG Alijah Vera-Tucker non-participants in practice while LG John Simpson has been limited.

The Buffalo Bills' streak of dominance hit a speed bump last week, but they edged out the New England Patriots with a 24-21 victory.

Some bettors who saw the Bills struggle with the Patriots at home will be hesitant to back them against the New York Jets, who have improved on the offensive side of the ball before a nine-point clunker last week.

However, according to NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers' status is uncertain due to a knee injury.

Rodgers told reporters he's dealing with a "little" MCL injury and will play on Sunday.

O'Donnell saw the Bills' letdown ATS coming last week, but he's back on them to cover on Sunday.

"The Bills predictably had their slip-up this past week against New England, winning only by three against a 14-point spread. The Jets think they have been 'better' of late, thanks to Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams reminiscing enough to put up some statistics.

"In reality, they're still a mess, only capable of a couple of fantasy football-managers-care type plays. This matchup historically plays a bit tighter than a two-score game, but I'll roll my dice with Josh Allen and the Bills imposing their will after the previous week's lackluster performance."

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Jets

Knox: Jets

Michelino: Bills

Moton: Bills

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Jets

ATS Consensus: Bills -9.5

Score Prediction: Bills 31, Jets 21

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