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Game Predictions

Game Predictions | Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts | Week 10

Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts at Highmark Stadium, November 21, 2021.  Photo by Ben Green
Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts at Highmark Stadium, November 21, 2021. Photo by Ben Green

The Buffalo Bills are 4.5-point favorites against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. The game will kick off at 1 pm and the game will air on CBS.

Here are some additional notes about Sunday's matchup:

  • The Bills have not won in Indianapolis since Oct. 11, 1998 (31-24)
  • Bills have scored 30+ points in six games this season (most in NFL)
  • Bills have allowed 10 or fewer points in four games in 2024 - tied with Chargers for most in NFL
  • Indianapolis has won its last two against Buffalo
  • Joe Flacco is 3-1 against Buffalo in his career
  • Bills are 6-0 against teams below .500 (Colts are 4-5)
  • Colts are 3-1 at home (4-0 against the spread)

The Buffalo Bills are flying a bit under the radar. They haven't played in a nationally televised game since beating the New York Jets in Week 6. Buffalo has won four consecutive games, averaging 29.5 points in that span, and it has the second-best record in the AFC.

Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts have scratched and clawed their way to a mediocre 4-5 record. They're trying to spark the offense with 39-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco, who struggled against the Minnesota Vikings' 28th-ranked pass defense last week. He finished 16-of-27 for 179 yards, no touchdowns and one interception.

Based on the recent trends, the Bills are the side to take in this matchup. O'Donnell agrees with that perspective.

"The last thing the Colts' QB quagmire needs is a visit from a team with an MVP front-runner," O'Donnell said. "And they get just that with Josh Allen coming to town."

"Indy's defense is giving up nearly 384 yards per game. The Bills have a top-five scoring offense with no real weaknesses. I won't be fooled by the divisional nail-biter last week and think less of Buffalo. This game shouldn't be close."

Sobleski also backed the Bills.

"The Bills going into Indianapolis and essentially getting a seven-point swing in their favor is a direct indictment of the Colts' recent decision-making process. That isn't to say that Anthony Richardson is a difference-maker who could have changed the line. Rather, it's a reflection of how the Flacco move turned out to be a complete disaster.

Indianapolis can do far better than the 227 total yards and six offensive points that it tallied against the Vikings. But the 39-year-old statuesque quarterback will be playing behind two rookie interior linemen. Unless Jonathan Taylor somehow finds running room against Buffalo, it's hard to see this game even being close."

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Gagnon: Colts

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Bills

Michelino: Bills

Moton: Colts

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Bills

ATS Consensus: Bills -4

Score Prediction: Bills 27, Colts 20

This is a tricky spot for the Buffalo Bills. Not only are they on the road, but a massive showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs looms in Week 11.

We're seeing this spread dip from the opener of -4.5, with some shops as low as Bills -3.5 due to the injury concerns at receiver. The current outright odds give Buffalo an implied win probability of around 67%.

If we look at road favorites between -3.5 and -4.5, they carry a 64% outright win rate since 1985, so this one could be tighter than expected.

I'm projecting a 24-21 win for the Bills in Week 10.

This should be an easy win for the Buffalo Bills on paper. They have the better quarterback, and their entire offense is more productive than the Indianapolis Colts. Still, Buffalo being a 4-point road favorite is always a little scary, especially against a quarterback as streaky as Joe Flacco.

If Buffalo can't create pressure on Flacco, this is a game where he could shine. It also could be a big Jonathan Taylor week, as the Colts might need to rely on him to control the pace of this game. We like the Colts to pull off the home upset here and return to .500 after 10 games.

Score Prediction: Colts 27, Bills 24

Why Dan picked the Bills: If the Colts don't figure some things out offensively by Sunday, this could be their first game decided by more than one possession. The switch from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco at QB1 did not pay off in Week 9, as the offense was shut out of the end zone against the Vikings. Indianapolis has now scored one offensive touchdown in its last seven quarters. The Bills have six TDs in that time frame and are led by one of this season's top MVP candidates. With Josh Allen on their side, this matchup just feels a little lopsided. Aside from a blowout loss to Baltimore in September, Buffalo has been a tough customer, winning by 21 points or more four times. The Colts' defense is playing better of late, but their two wins since the calendar flipped to October came against the likes of Will Levis and Tyler Huntley/Tim Boyle. Allen is on a different planet from those guys, and Indy still has second-worst run defense in the league. Advantage Buffalo, even on the road.

Pick: Bills 28-17

If the Colts can't win with Joe Flacco, why not get Anthony Richardson some reps?

Florio: Bills, 27-24.

Simms: Bills, 34-21.

This is a challenging spot in the schedule for Buffalo, in the middle of their divisional battle with Miami last week and next week's looming matchup with the Chiefs in Orchard Park. Keon Coleman had recently emerged as the Bills' best receiver, and now he could miss multiple weeks due to a wrist injury. Buffalo's offense was able to find a plethora of explosive pass plays in the first three weeks of the season, but those have disappeared. Since Week 4, the Bills are 22nd in explosive pass rate. They're facing an Indianapolis defense whose primary issue has been defending top-tier wide receivers, an area where the Bills lack the ability to threaten. Amari Cooper missed Sunday's game against the Dolphins with a wrist injury, but did return as a limited participant to practice on Wednesday.

The Colts aren't a difficult defense to move the ball against, but they do force you to be methodical, and their run defense has shown continued improvement in recent weeks as they've gotten healthier.

Indianapolis turned to Joe Flacco as the starting quarterback last week and posted some genuinely terrible offensive statistics in Minnesota. Not only did the Colts fail to make it to the Vikings' red zone, but the run game was completely neutralized. The threat of Anthony Richardson's legs has helped create space for Colts running backs. With Flacco at the helm, they've been reliant on hitting big plays on third down. Against a Sean McDermott defense that's designed to take away big plays, it will be difficult for the Colts to sustain drives.

I would bet the under at 47 or better and consider the Colts as a home dog if the line is above 4.

Verdict: Bet under 47.5 (-105)

The move to play Joe Flacco didn't pay off for the Colts last week. But he will start again. The Bills have run-game issues, so look for a lot of Jonathan Taylor here. Even so, I don't think the Colts will slow down Josh Allen and his offense. Look for the Bills to stay hot.

Pick: Bills 30, Colts 17

Buffalo can steamroll Indianapolis with the running game, as backs James Cook and Ray Davis can get hot to support Josh Allen's powerful scrambling. The Colts are struggling with giving up big pass plays to big-armed QBs, which also works in Allen's favor. Jonathan Taylor is the only way the hosts can hang around in the game, which won't be for long once the Bills can pin their ears back vs. Joe Flacco.

Pick: Bills win 27-13 and cover the spread.

Bills storyline to watch: Quarterback Josh Allen has started the season with an MVP candidate performance and is among the favorites to win the award, according to ESPN BET (+300). He has thrown only two interceptions, neither of which were his fault. Going against the Colts, however, Allen might be without two wide receivers as Amari Cooper, who missed last week's game, and Keon Coleman deal with wrist injuries. The Bills' offense could rely even more on running the ball against an Indianapolis defense that has allowed the second-most rushing yards per game (149.8). -- Alaina Getzenberg

Colts storyline to watch: The Colts' defense continues its confounding season, during which it has given up significant yardage but kept games close. Indianapolis ranks 29th in yards allowed, with 383.6 yards per game. Only the Patriots and Panthers have a bigger yards deficit between them and their opponents. But the Colts allow only 21.4 points per game (12th). Can their surprising formula work against a Buffalo offense that's fourth in scoring (28.1 points per game)? -- Stephen Holder

Stat to know: The Colts are the fourth team in NFL history to have each of their first nine games decided by one-score margins.

Bold prediction: If Cooper plays -- he was limited in practice this week -- he will catch a 40-plus-yard pass. No team allows a higher air yards per attempt (10.3) than the Colts. -- Walder

Fantasy X factor: Bills running back James Cook. The Colts' defense ranks among the worst against running backs, allowing the second-most rushing yards (149.8) per game. Cook's versatile skill set is well suited to exploit these weaknesses. See Week 10 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Colts are 4-0 ATS at home this season and 5-1 ATS as underdogs.

Kahler's pick: Bills 28, Colts 21

Moody's pick: Bills 33, Colts 21

Walder's pick: Bills 30, Colts 16

FPI prediction: BUF, 64.7% (by an average of 5.7 points)

Scroll to see the best photos from Thursday's practice as the Buffalo Bills prepare to face the Indianapolis Colts.

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