The Buffalo Bills are 14.0-point favorites against the New England Patriots this week. The Bills play New England at Highmark Stadium at 4:25 pm. The game will air on CBS.
Here are additional notes about this week's game:
- Bills have won nine straight regular season games - longest active streak in the NFL
- Patriots have lost four straight games and have been held under 25 points in each game
- Bills have score 30+ points in eight consecutive games tying an NFL record
- The Patriots are 9-32 straight up as underdogs since 2021 per Action Network
The Bills are riding high coming off their impressive victory over the Lions. Now back home after two road games, they get a New England team that isn't playing well. Look for Josh Allen to keep the MVP push going as he lights up the Patriots.
Pick: Bills 36, Patriots 17
The gap between the have and have nots is as big as it was in the '70s.
Florio: Bills, 42-13.
Simms: Bills, 34-14.
The forecasted high for Buffalo on Sunday is just 17 degrees. There's no precipitation or high wind anticipated, but those conditions are vastly different from the ones in the domes where the Bills have played the past two weeks. Is the Bills defense good enough to lay two full touchdowns against the Patriots offense, which is improving week to week with Drake Maye? I don't think so.
The Patriots have ranked fourth in offensive success rate, at 50.3 percent, since Maye returned from his concussion in Week 10. The only teams with a higher success rate are Green Bay, Detroit, and Buffalo. The Patriots have been just 19th in EPA per drive in that span, but better days are ahead for the New England offense, given those impressive underlying success rate numbers.
New England's offense ranked 28th in success rate in the first nine weeks of the season, at 40.4 percent, and 29th in EPA per drive. Maye himself has improved, and the Patriots have shown a real propensity for scoring late touchdowns in the fourth quarter if needed in garbage time.
We're in an excellent sell-high spot with Buffalo given that Josh Allen has MVP all but wrapped up and the Bills just beat the Super Bowl favorite on the road last week. There will always be one ugly bet in this column, and the Patriots +14 is it this week.
Verdict: Bet Patriots +14 (-110).
Scroll to see the best photos from Thursday's practice as the Buffalo Bills prepare to face the New England Patriots. This gallery is presented by St. Bonaventure University.
Mack Hollins (13). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Reggie Gilliam (41). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Tylan Grable (68). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Connor McGovern (66). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Richard Gouraige (75). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Mike Edwards (65). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Zach Davidson (84). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Cam Lewis (39). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
David Edwards (76). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Quintin Morris (85). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Zach Davidson (84). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Taylor Rapp (9). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Terrel Bernard (43), Matt Milano (58) , Taylor Rapp (9). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Damar Hamlin (3). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Mike White (14). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Von Miller (40). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Damar Hamlin (3). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Frank Gore Jr. (20). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Amari Cooper (18). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Greg Rousseau (50). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Keon Coleman (0). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Zion Logue (93). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Dawuane Smoot (94). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Kelly Skipper. Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Ty Johnson (26) , Ray Davis (22). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Mike White (14). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Josh Allen (17) , James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Spencer Brown (79). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (62). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Ja'Marcus Ingram (46) , Rasul Douglas (31). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Mack Hollins (13) , Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Len Vanden Bos, Jahmile Addae, Brandon Codrington (29), Taylor Rapp (9), Cam Lewis (39), Christian Benford (47), Damar Hamlin (3), Taron Johnson (7), Te'Cory Couch (33), Daequan Hardy (25), Kareem Jackson (27), Rasul Douglas (31), Ja'Marcus Ingram (46), Micah Hyde (23), Cole Bishop (24), Kaiir Elam (5) , Scott Booker. Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
DeWayne Carter (90). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Dalton Kincaid (86). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Mike Edwards (65), Tylan Grable (68) , Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (62). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Joe Brady. Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Sean McDermott. Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Taron Johnson (7) , Sean McDermott. Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Baylon Spector (54). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Rob Boras. Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Dawuane Smoot (94). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Cole Bishop (24). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Greg Rousseau (50). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Dawson Knox (88). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Mack Hollins (13). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Baylon Spector (54). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Ty Johnson (26). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Cam Lewis (39). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Greg Rousseau (50). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Taron Johnson (7). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Taron Johnson (7). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Kareem Jackson (27). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Ryan Van Demark (74). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Rob Boras. Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Terrel Bernard (43). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
James Cook (4). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Josh Allen (17). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Zion Logue (93). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Jordan Phillips (97). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Austin Johnson (98). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Ed Oliver (91). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
A.J. Epenesa (57). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Khalil Shakir (10). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Bobby Babich. Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
DaQuan Jones (92). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (62). Buffalo Bills Week 16 Thursday Practice, December 19, 2024 at One Bills Drive.
Patriots storyline to watch: The past two times the Patriots and Bills have played in Buffalo, the opening kickoff has been returned for a touchdown, which has never happened between the same teams at the same venue in back-to-back seasons. This will also be the coldest game for Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye, with the forecast calling for temperatures in the teens. "I'm excited to wear long sleeves for the first time and embrace it," he said. -- Mike Reiss
Bills storyline to watch: The Bills' offense has a chance to become the first team to score 30-plus points in nine straight games. The Patriots have given up 24.1 points per game this season (10th worst). New England's biggest task will be slowing MVP candidate Josh Allen, who also can become the first quarterback in the past 90 years to record multiple rushing touchdowns in three consecutive games, per Elias Sports Bureau. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Maye has a passing touchdown in six consecutive games entering Sunday. One more would tie Jim Plunkett (1971) for the longest streak by a rookie in franchise history.
Bold prediction: Bills edge Von Miller will record at least one sack. He has only one sack since returning from suspension in Week 9, but he actually boasts a 25% pass rush win rate at edge in that span, which is third best at the position. -- Walder
What's at stake: The Bills are in a fight with the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed. Buffalo's chances increase to 25% with a win and fall to 3.6% with a loss, per ESPN Analytics. On the other end, the Patriots' odds at the No. 1 pick climb to 30% with a loss.
Fantasy X factor: Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir. He has been targeted often by Allen, with seven or more targets in eight games and two with 10 or more. Shakir has scored 16 or more fantasy points in consecutive games. He should do well against the Patriots' defense, especially from the slot.
Betting nugget: The Patriots have been 14-point underdogs only one other time in the past 30 seasons -- 2023 against the Bills, when they lost by six.
Kahler's pick: Bills 33, Patriots 17
Moody's pick: Bills 41, Patriots 13
Walder's pick: Bills 27, Patriots 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 82.5% (by an average of 13.9 points)
The Buffalo Bills have scored at least 30 points in eight consecutive games. They shouldn't have a problem dominating the New England Patriots, even in frigid temperatures.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level, and he hasn't turned the ball over in three weeks.
The Bills are scoring at will and not giving their opponents extra possessions, which seems like a recipe for a blowout win over one of the league's worst teams. However, O'Donnell can see this game playing out differently.
"You just never know with this matchup," he said. "The Bills could easily run away with this game, especially as they're in chase mode for the AFC's top seed with a potential injury-aided Chiefs letdown on the horizon. But New England won't lay down and Buffalo has been running a gauntlet of difficult games over the past four weeks.
"Against the current, I'm going to take the points here."
Predictions
Davenport: Bills
Gagnon: Bills
Hanford: Bills
Knox: Bills
Michelino: Patriots
Moton: Bills
O'Donnell: Patriots
Sobleski: Bills
ATS Consensus: Bills -14
Score Prediction: Bills 31, Patriots 14
Patriots vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis
- This Buffalo -14 spread hasn't moved off the opening line at BetMGM. The Bills have only been a double-digit favorite once this season, and they covered the -10 margin at home against the Titans in Week 7.
- New England has a 5-8-1 record against the spread this year, but this is also the largest underdog the Pats have been. For what it's worth, the Patriots failed to cover the +10.5 spread on the road against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4, which was the last time they were a double-digit dog.
- Both the Patriots and Bills have trended to the Over this season, and the Bills have gone Over the number in 10 of their last 11 games at Highmark Stadium.
- I'm anticipating New England being able to put points on the board late to push this total Over the number, which will help the Pats pull off the backdoor cover.
Happy Holidays from the Buffalo Bills! Check out Alec Anderson, Dalton Kincaid, Ryan Van Demark, Quinton Morris and Elvis show off their holiday spirit. This gallery is presented by St. Bonaventure University.
Josh Allen is on an unprecedented heater, taking over games by doing things that no one has seen from a quarterback in the modern era. He won't be easing on the gas pedal with a lost New England defense coming to town. Allen has already fast-tracked toward his first NFL MVP, and now it's time to avoid a trap.
Pick: Bills win 38-10 and cover the spread.
This is a huge line, but the Bills' offense is clicking. Buffalo is averaging 41.7 points per game over its past three, and Josh Allen is making a run at the NFL MVP award. The Patriots have lost four games by 14 points or more this season, and the Pats have allowed 30-plus points in two of their past three games. Buffalo has won the past two home meetings by an average of nine points.
Pick: Bills 31, Patriots 13
A two-touchdown spread is a massive one for the NFL's hottest team, but the Buffalo Bills might not have the same juice to bring in this one after a big win against the Detroit Lions last week.
Drake Maye has been fun, but the rest of the New England Patriots roster is a mess. The Bills should be able to come away with an easy win and some more stats to build up Allen's MVP case, but they might take their foot off of the gas just enough for the Patriots to cover the spread as they set their sights on the playoffs.
Prediction: Bills 34, Patriots, 21
Why Gennaro picked the Bills: They have significant advantages on both sides of the ball, an experience edge in coaching and a 6-0 home record that's littered with beatdowns. A Patriots win would be the biggest upset of the season -- and that's OK! Because in the life cycle of NFL teams, New England's a zygote while Buffalo's a fully formed Super Bowl contender. So, instead of using the remaining space here to drone on about the pronounced differences between these division rivals, I'd like to spotlight one random thing they have in common: a cornerback named Christian who deserves more shine.
Let's start in New England. After immediately flashing in an injury-abbreviated rookie campaign, Christian Gonzalez has officially emerged as one of the stickiest cover men in football. Don't take my word for it -- ask the guys who play against him. Like A.J. Brown. And Tyreek Hill. And Kyler Murray, who just gave the second-year pro quite a compliment in the postgame dap-up this past Sunday: "Big fan, fella. Big fan, bro. Keep doing your thing."
Meanwhile, Buffalo has its own young CB worthy of adulation. You wouldn't know it by his draft pedigree (sixth-round pick in 2022) or jersey number (47), but Christian Benford is a rising star at the position. And like Gonzalez, Benford draws immense respect from opponents -- just look at how they treat him on the field of play. According to Next Gen Stats, the only qualified corners who've been targeted less than Benford are Pat Surtain II, Jaylon Johnson and A.J. Terrell Jr.
Did I just hijack this predictions blurb and turn it into a vehicle for arbitrary praise? Indeed I did. It's the holiday season -- spread joy, y'all!
The Buffalo Bills will wear their red Color Rush jerseys, white pants, red socks, and white helmets this week as they face the New England Patriots at Highmark Stadium.
Buffalo Bills 2024 Week 16 uniform combination.
Buffalo Bills 2024 Week 16 uniform combination.
Buffalo Bills 2024 Week 16 uniform combination.
Buffalo Bills 2024 Week 16 uniform combination.
Buffalo Bills 2024 Week 16 uniform combination.
Buffalo Bills 2024 Week 16 uniform combination.
Buffalo Bills 2024 Week 16 uniform combination.
Buffalo Bills 2024 Week 16 uniform combination.
