Game Predictions

Game Predictions | Bills vs. Dolphins | Week 9

Nov 02, 2024 at 03:34 PM

Chris Jenkins

Senior Director of Content

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins, Regular Season, October 01, 2023 at Highmark Stadium.

The Buffalo Bills are 6.0-favorites when they host the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium on Sunday at 1 pm. The game will air on CBS.

Here are some additional notes for the AFC East clash:

Bills are 8-0 at home vs. Miami since 2017
Bills have won five consecutive games against Miami including the playoffs
Miami has not won a road game in Buffalo since Week 16, 2016
Miami HC Mike McDaniel is 1-5 against the Bills including the playoffs
Bills HC Sean McDermott is 14-2 against the Dolphins including the playoffs
Bills have scored 31+ points in five games this season - the most in the NFL

Mike Florio & Chris Simms | Pro Football Talk

The Dolphins are on the ropes. The Bills are prepared to punch them through.

Florio: Bills, 34-21.

Simms: Bills, 34-20.

Related Links

Around the NFL | NFL.com

Why Brooke picked the Bills: Tyreek Hill was right. The Dolphins were back last week -- at least offensively. Tua Tagovailoa performed well in his return, protecting himself from big hits, moving the ball and helping Miami put up a season-high 27 points. The problem was a defense that gave up 21 second-half points to Arizona. Can that unit stall MVP candidate Josh Allen and a Bills team that has scored 31-plus points in five games this season? Not if Khalil Shakir, James Cook and Buffalo's tight end duo are in lockstep with Allen. Plus, we've seen promising play from rookie Keon Coleman recently, and Amari Cooper might not end up missing time for a wrist injury after all. The Bills are also getting Von Miller back from suspension. Sean McDermott has an extremely well-rounded group this season, with a +84 point differential (best in AFC, second-best in NFL) and league-leading +11 turnover differential. Miami's vibes are trending up, but Buffalo is cruising with no signs of slowing down. Not to mention, the Bills are averaging more than 38 points per game in three home games in 2024.

Bleacher Report

The Buffalo Bills will attempt to sweep their season series with the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. In the first meeting between these clubs this season, Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered his third documented concussion, but by that point, the Bills already had a 31-10 lead late in the third quarter.

Last week, Tagovailoa returned to action against the Arizona Cardinals, throwing for 234 yards and a touchdown, but Miami lost 28-27 on a last-second field goal.

Even with Tagovailoa on the field, the Dolphins haven't had much success against the Bills. O'Donnell doesn't see Miami turning the tide this week.

"Josh Allen owns the Dolphins. In 13 career games, he is now 11-2 against them. He's thrown 34 touchdowns to seven interceptions and has five rushing touchdowns against them, too. Meanwhile, Tua is 1-7 in his career against Buffalo. In Week 2, he threw three interceptions, including a pick-six, before suffering his concussion.

"Tua returned to the lineup a week ago, but the Dolphins dropped yet another game. While a trend-breaking performance is always possible, I've been riding with Buffalo and have zero inclination to buck that trend."

Predictions

Davenport: Bills

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Bills

Michelino: Bills

Moton: Bills

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Dolphins

ATS Consensus: Bills -6.5

Score Prediction: Bills 28, Dolphins 20

Anthony Dabbundo | The Ringer

Tua Tagovailoa has a history of struggling against the Buffalo Bills, with Sean McDermott's defense consistently getting the better of him. In eight career games against McDermott, Tagovailoa has thrown seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Buffalo's defensive strategy of playing two high safeties to limit big plays forces Miami to be methodical in moving the ball down the field.

While the Dolphins may rack up first downs, they are likely to struggle in crucial situations and in the red zone due to Tagovailoa's difficulties against McDermott's defense. In Week 2, prior to Tagovailoa's injury, Miami often failed to capitalize on yards gained due to turnovers or unsuccessful fourth-down conversions.

Despite concerns about the loss of Stefon Diggs, Buffalo's offense has remained efficient and balanced. The Bills rank fifth in rush EPA per play and third in EPA per dropback. The development of rookie Keon Coleman, the emergence of Khalil Shakir, and the acquisition of Amari Cooper have strengthened Buffalo's skill position group enough to challenge Miami's defense.

Verdict: Bet Bills -6 (-110).

Pete Prisco | CBS Sports

The Dolphins are playing for their season here after losing last week to Arizona in the return of Tua Tagovailoa. The Bills are coming off back-to-back blowout wins over the Titans and Seahawks. They will continue their dominance of the Dolphins as Josh Allen owns them. He will have another big day.

Pick: Bills 32, Dolphins 23

Vinnie Iyer | Sporting News

The Bills are rolling with their offense, striking the right balance between Josh Allen's efficient downfield passing and dominating with the running game. That's a bad 1-2 punch for a Dolphins defense on the ropes. The Dolphins can stay in the game by running De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, but in the end, they will wilt late with some pressure on Tua Tagovailoa.

Pick: Bills win 31-21 and cover the spread.

Bill Bender | Sporting News

The Bills have found a groove. James Cook is coming off a 111-yard, two-TD performance, and he had three total TDs in the first meeting against Miami. Josh Allen threw his first interception of the season last week, but the Bills lead the NFL with a plus-11 turnover margin. Including the postseason, the Dolphins have lost the past eight meetings in Buffalo. Tua Tagovailoa had an encouraging return in Week 8, but they cannot afford to play without the lead here.

Pick: Bills 31, Dolphins 21

Marcus Mosher | 33rd Team

These two teams faced off in Week 2 of the NFL season, and the Buffalo Bills got the decisive win on Thursday Night Football. Late in that game, Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion that caused him to miss four games, but he has since returned to the field and looked pretty good against the Cardinals. He should look even better in Week 9, but this is a tough matchup on the road for the Miami Dolphins.

Miami can put up points in this game, but its defense will have a hard time stopping Josh Allen and the Bills. Buffalo has been unstoppable on offense in the last few weeks, and it is still trying to find ways to get Amari Cooper involved. Look for this to be a shootout in Buffalo, with the Bills getting a narrow win.

Score Prediction: Bills 30, Dolphins 27

Tom Oldfield | Covers.com

A six-point spread makes sense, given Buffalo has won its last two games by a combined 65-27 margin — but the line could be even higher. The Dolphins are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 outings, and the Bills are fresh off flexing their muscles on the road against the Seattle Seahawks.

Even with Tua running the offense, I don't see Miami keeping pace here.

Score prediction: Dolphins 23, Bills 34