The Buffalo Bills (8-2) are 2.0-point favorites for Sunday's massive AFC clash against the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs (9-0). The game is set for a 4:25 pm kickoff at Highmark Stadium and the game will air nationally on CBS.
Here are some additional notes about Sunday's game:
- Chiefs have won 15 consecutive games - including the postseason
- Bills are 3-4 against the Chiefs since 2020 - including the postseason
- Bills have won five straight games
- Bills are 4-0 at home this season - one of two teams still undefeated at home
- Bills have won three consecutive regular season games against Kansas City
- Patrick Mahomes is 7-3 when he's an underdog - NFL's best record since 2017
Why Gennaro picked the Bills: Why pick against the NFL's last remaining undefeated team? The Chiefs haven't lost a game since last Christmas, winning their second straight Super Bowl in the process. At first blush, this feels like a fool's errand. Maybe it is! Fading Patrick Mahomes feels like fading the sun. But the best player in the sport is having his worst statistical season. And Kansas City hasn't exactly rampaged its way to 9-0, winning seven games by one possession. Shoot, the Chiefs don't even have the best point differential in their own division. And now they're visiting a Bills team that has won 22 of its last 24 regular-season games at home and boasts the top point differential in the AFC this year. Josh Allen is playing at an MVP level, and Buffalo presents matchup problems to Kansas City in certain areas. In fact, the Bills appear poised to attack the Chiefs' one true Achilles' heel.
Kansas City has a major issue at left tackle. The Chiefs have tried out rookie Kingsley Suamataia and second-year pro Wanya Morris at the crucial position, but neither has shown the ability to protect Mahomes' back. That could be a serious problem against an emerging star in Buffalo. Greg Rousseau is enjoying a breakout season in Year 4. The long, strong, freakishly athletic edge lines up over the right tackle on most early downs. But on passing downs, the Bills like to insert Von Miller at LOLB, sending Rousseau across the formation to hunt from the blind side. This prediction says the man nicknamed "Groot" significantly impacts this game by exploiting K.C.'s weakest link.
This game opened with Kansas City as a slight -115 favorite on the moneyline, giving an implied win probability of 53.5%. But money on the Bills quickly pushed those odds over the fence.
As of Thursday, Buffalo is a -135 home favorite, which gives it an implied win probability of almost 57.5%. However, I agree with the initial opinion from the oddsmakers, especially with the injuries to the Bills' receiving corps.
The Chiefs are 12-5 SU when pegged as an underdog since 2018 and Mahomes will get the best of a Bills defense that has been quietly giving up yardage during this five-game winning streak (20th in opponent success rate per play in that span).
Prediction: Kansas City wins 24-20.
Until the Chiefs suddenly don't find a way a win, let's assume it'll continue.
Florio: Chiefs, 24-23.
Simms: Chiefs, 24-20.
In recent years, the Buffalo Bills have had the Kansas City Chiefs' number during the regular season. Yet they have fallen to the reigning champions in three playoff matchups that featured Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
The Bills face more adversity leading into this chapter of the AFC rivalry because of their injuries. Head coach Sean McDermott has already ruled out wideout Keon Coleman (wrist) for this game. Amari Cooper missed last week's game because of a wrist injury. Tight end Dalton Kincaid suffered a knee injury last week and seems questionable for Sunday.
The Chiefs also have critical injuries. Wideouts Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown are on injured reserve. However, the team designated running back Isiah Pacheco (leg) to return from injured reserve on Tuesday.
Though both teams will be without key offensive playmakers, this should be a tight battle like the previous meetings.
O'Donnell went anti-trend and went against all of the signs that favor Kansas City in this matchup. He couldn't jump off the Bills bandwagon, but he made a case for anyone who likes the Chiefs in this spot.
"Josh Allen has gotten the best of Patrick Mahomes in the regular season. In fact, the last three meetings, the Bills have won by three points or more. But when the Chiefs are getting points—and this has only happened 17 times since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter in 2018—K.C. is 12-5 against the spread. You should take the points.
"It gets better. Eleven of the games were on the road, and Mahomes and Andy Reid are 10-0-1 in those 11 games. Simple math: Mahomes is getting points; you should take the points.
"The Bills are a lackluster 2-2 this season as home favorites. Take the points.
"These undefeated Chiefs have been anything but dominant, yet they are undefeated. Take the damn points. I can't (Jason Segel Dracula's Lament voice)—but you should."
Predictions
Davenport: Chiefs
Gagnon: Bills
Hanford: Bills
Knox: Bills
Michelino: Bills
Moton: Chiefs
O'Donnell: Bills
Sobleski: Bills
ATS Consensus: Bills -2.5
Score Prediction: Bills 27, Chiefs 21
This is the game of the week, with the Bills trying to beat their nemesis and the Chiefs trying to stay undefeated. The Chiefs haven't looked great on offense this season, while the Bills and Josh Allen have most of the time. This is one of those games Allen and the Buffalo offense will outplay the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Bills win it.
Pick: Bills 27. Chiefs 23
The Chiefs' defense will catch another break here with Josh Allen's key receivers hurting, which will lessen the burden after they contain the Bills' running game. Kansas City has done what's needed to win every game through offense, defense, and special teams. The team that has the cleaner game and is pressured into fewer turnovers will win, and the Chiefs will make a strong statement that they remain the clear AFC team to beat.
Pick: Chiefs win 23-20.
The 8-2 Buffalo Bills hosting the 9-0 Kansas City Chiefs might be the game of the season. The Chiefs have managed to escape the last few weeks against average teams, but they need to play a much better game in order to beat the Bills in Buffalo.
Both teams have massive leads in their respective division, but this game probably means more to the Bills for their confidence moving forward. Look for the Bills to use Josh Allen's legs more in this game to beat Kansas City's defense and, ultimately, get the win in Buffalo on Sunday, ending the Chiefs' winning streak.
Score Prediction: Bills 26, Chiefs 20
Chiefs storyline to watch: In seven career games against the Chiefs, counting three in the playoffs, quarterback Josh Allen has 16 touchdown passes, three interceptions and a QBR of 74. Are the Chiefs capable of keeping him from another big game this time, even if Allen is throwing to a group of receivers depleted by injuries? In the past two weeks, the Chiefs put up little resistance against Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield and Denver's Bo Nix. -- Adam Teicher
Bills storyline to watch: Can the Bills' defense continue to limit the Chiefs' offense in the regular season? The Bills have held the Chiefs to 20.8 points per game in four regular-season meetings since 2020. Taking the ball away is a point of emphasis for this defense and could be the key to success. The Bills have 12 straight games with at least one takeaway, the second-longest active streak in the NFL after the Lions (13). -- Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills have won five straight games; Buffalo's plus-61 scoring margin during the win streak is the third highest by any team in the NFL over that span, trailing only the Lions (plus-91) and the Eagles (plus-82)
Bold prediction: Bills cornerback Christian Benford will pick off quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Benford is playing great this season. In fact, no outside cornerback has allowed fewer yards per coverage snap (0.6) than him, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Part of that is because he's allowing fewer targets than average (13%) but also that he has a minus-9% completion percentage allowed over expectation. -- Walder
Fantasy X factor: Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt. Kansas City is first in time of possession (33:01), which means we should see a lot of Hunt. He has had 20-plus touches in each of his past four games, scoring at least 17 fantasy points in three of them. The Bills' defense is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 11 rankings. -- Moody
Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their past four conference games.
Kahler's pick: Bills 29, Chiefs 27
Moody's pick: Bills 25, Chiefs 23
Walder's pick: Bills 24, Chiefs 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 53.1% (by an average of 1.4 points)
