What to watch for: The Bills own the NFL's top red zone offense, while the Browns have one of the worst. Star wideout Odell Beckham Jr. has only three red zone targets the entire season. After going 1-of-5 in the red zone last weekend, will Cleveland finally be able to get OBJ involved near the end zone? -- Jake Trotter
Bold prediction: Bills wide receiver John Brown will finish with a game high in receiving yards. Brown is quietly on pace for a career-high 1,200 receiving yards and is Josh Allen's unquestioned top target. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Buffalo running back Devin Singletary had a career-high 140 scrimmage yards vs. the Redskins in Week 9, the most by a Bills player in the past two seasons and the most by a Bills rookie running back since Marshawn Lynch in 2007. He is seeking to become first Bill with 140-plus yards from scrimmage in consecutive games since LeSean McCoy had two separate two-game streaks in 2016.
Louis-Jacques' pick: Bills 17, Browns 14
Trotter's pick: Bills 21, Browns 20
This was the hardest game of the week to pick. Watching Baker Mayfield hesitate before targeting open receivers and failing to connect on routine throws is painful. He's having the rookie season he bypassed last year, struggling to maintain his usual bravado during the first real rough patch he's experienced on the field since his freshman year at Texas Tech. If only he had Josh Allen's fortune. The 6-2 Bills have won a lot of close games against the league's worst teams and carry underlying statistics that suggest they could easily be 2-6 with different circumstances. Buffalo's overall efficiency and estimated wins total both rank just below the Browns, according to Football Outsiders, suggesting that a market correction is coming soon. For the sake of Baker's postgame outfit, here's to it happening this week.
Cleveland Browns 21, Buffalo Bills 20
Bills at Browns (-2.5)
Charles: Bills
What the what? The Browns are FAVORITES here? I know, home game yadda yadda yadda. But c'mon. I can't honestly bet on Baker Mayfield to thrive here.
Steven: Bills
At a certain point, we just have to adjust our preseason expectations. The Browns are bad, and bettors have made a lot of money going against them. I don't think Buffalo is necessarily a great team, but it's better than Cleveland.
MDS's take: The Browns simply can't be as bad as they've looked so far this season. I think a big special teams play will make the difference, and the Bills will stumble on the road.
MDS's pick: Browns 17, Bills 16.
Florio's take: It's now or never for the Browns. And it could indeed be never. But they're due to win at home, where they've generated an 0-3 record so far this season.
Florio's pick: Browns 24, Bills 20.
Bills (+3) over Browns:I know the Bills aren't darlings when it comes to advanced stats, but the Browns just lost to Broncos quarterback Brandon Allen making his first NFL start. And now we're supposed to believe the Browns should be favored by a field goal over what looks like a sure AFC playoff team?
We are at the point in the Browns' season where Baker Mayfield is being asked to explain his facial hair choices (note: Mayfield and the QBs agreed to grow mustaches as part of Movember).
"The original thought for me was to have a handlebar because I was undefeated before Sunday with the handlebar mustaches," Mayfield said, per The Athletic’s Pat McManamon. "So I shaved it off (after the loss) because I didn't deserve it."
I can't tell if this is a good sign that Mayfield took the loss hard or a bad sign that he was thinking about the wrong things or a reflection of my own life failings that I'm writing about a grown man's mustache. Let's just move on. If you look at advanced metrics like Football Outsiders’ DVOA, these are actually two similar teams in terms of play-by-play performance. The Browns just do stupid stuff on a weekly basis, and the Bills are very well-coached.
The pick: Bills (+3)
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-3)
Pick: Buffalo Bills +3
Buffalo's pass rush should be the difference here. According to Pro Football Focus, Buffalo has the fifth-best pass rushing unit of 2019 and Cleveland sports the 20th best pass-blocking unit. Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield, meanwhile, sees his passer rating drop from 83.0 in a clean pocket to 40.8 when facing pass pressure this year. For comparison, a player will get a 39.6 passer rating for throwing the ball into the dirt. The favored Browns, in general, are a hot mess, while the Bills are 6-2.
The Bills (6-2) have been thoroughly outplayed only once this season (a Week 8 loss to Philadelphia). In the other games, Buffalo's defense put on a show and its offense found a way to survive. The Browns (2-6), meanwhile, seem to find new dysfunction weekly. Their losing streak, which began in October, was understandable considering the opponents (San Francisco, Seattle, New England), but turned ugly when Brandon Allen and the lowly Broncos stretched it to four games. Cleveland has a ton of talent, but it does not appear that quarterback Baker Mayfield knows what to do with it.
Pick: Bills +2.5
Scroll through to view photos of every player currently on the Bills 53-man roster along with updates on their play to this point through 8 games.
#4 | Stephen Hauschka | K
One of Buffalo's captains in 2019, Stephen Hauschka has been his reliable self making 8/11 field goals, and 16/17 extra points.
#5 | Matt Barkley | QB
After signing a contract extension in the offseason, Matt Barkley has taken on the role of mentoring Josh Allen. He appeared in the New England game this season, and was 9/16 for 127 yards.
#9 | Corey Bojorquez | P
Bojorquez has appeared in every game for the Bills in 2019, punting 38 times for an average of 41.9 yards. He has downed 16 punts inside the 20, and has as long of 64 yards. He also serves as the holder for field goals and extra points.
#10 | Cole Beasley | WR
Cole Beasley has been one of Josh Allen's favorite targets since being acquired as a free agent in the offseason. He is second on the team with 35 catches, and has accounted for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air so far in 2019. His 3 TD catches leads the Bills.
#15 | John Brown | WR
Another free agent acquisition, John Brown leads the team in catches (42), receiving yards (603), and yards per reception (14.4). After recording 76 yards on 4 catches against the Redskins, he became the second Bills WR ever to record eight straight games of at least 4 catches and 50 yards (Andre Reed).
#16 | Robert Foster | WR
Foster has appeared in five games for the Bills, spending time as a WR and as a valuable member of the special teams units.
17 | Josh Allen | QB
A first-time captain in 2019, Allen has started all 8 games for the Bills this season. He is 148/243 passing (60.9%) with 1653 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has also picked up 247 yards rushing to go along with 4 rushing touchdowns.
#18 | Andre Roberts | WR
A dynamic returner on special teams, Roberts has been a valuable offseason addition. He is currently averaging 32.6 yards per return on kickoffs, with a long of 66 yards that he picked up against the Redskins.
#19 | Isaiah McKenzie | WR
A speedy playmaker, McKenzie has made the most of his touches so far in 2019. He has 10 catches on the year for 124 yards and a touchdown. He is also used very creatively in the running game, motioning across formations to spread defenses out.
#20 | Frank Gore | RB
One of greatest running backs to ever play in the NFL, Gore has been a steady presence in the backfield for the Bills this year. He has carried the ball 106 times for 437 yards (4.1 yards/ carry) to go along with 2 touchdowns, while also adding 7 receptions. He currently sits at 4th on the all-time rushing leaderboard with 15,185 yards.
#21 | Jordan Poyer | S
One of the anchor's of Buffalo's defense, Poyer has tallied 58 tackles through eight games, which is second on the team. His 38 solo tackles lead the Bills, and he also has a sack, an interception, three forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery.
#22 | T.J. Yeldon | RB
Yeldon has appeared in three games after coming to Buffalo in the offseason as a free agent. He provides a nice option in the passing game out of the backfield, catching 10 passes over his three games.
#23 | Micah Hyde | S
One of the most versatile players on the team, Hyde has played a huge role on one of the league's best defenses. Through eight games, he has 37 tackles, a forced fumble, an interception, and three pass breakups. He also returned an onside kick for a touchdown against Miami.
#24 | Taron Johnson | CB
Johnson plays the nickel corner position on this Bills team, and is a very important part of the defense. In four games this season, he has 8 tackles, 1 sack, 2 pass breakups, 2 tackles for loss, and a forced fumble.
#26 | Devin Singletary | RB
The rookie running back has been a big part of the offense after being drafted in the third round. Singletary is a great weapon out of the backfield, with the ability to run the ball effectively, and to make plays in the passing game. In five games, he has 267 yards rushing on just 40 carries (6.7 yards per carry), to go along with 12 catches for 103 yards. He has three total touchdowns on the year (2 rushing, 1 receiving).
#27 | Tre'Davious White | CB
Considered one of the best DB's in the NFL, White leads the Bills and is tied for fourth-most in the NFL with 3 interceptions this season. He has also tallied 34 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble, and 5 passes defensed through eight games.
#28 | Kurt Coleman | S
A veteran presence in the DB room, Coleman has been appeared in six games this year and plays a big role on special teams.
#29 | Kevin Johnson | CB
Johnson has been a solid rotational DB for the Bills so far this year, appearing in all eight games. He has 12 tackles, a sack, and two pass breakups in 2019.
31 | Dean Marlowe | S
Marlowe has appeared in seven games in 2019, making two starts. He frequently rotates in on defense, and plays a huge role on special teams.
32 | Senorise Perry | RB
He was signed to the roster before the Miami game in Week 7, and has appeared in all three games since. He is a very important part of the special teams units.
33 | Siran Neal | DB
Neal has appeared in all eight games for the Bills, making one start. He plays a variety of positions on defense, and has made 5 tackles on special teams, which leads the Bills and is tied for 11th in the NFL. He has 21 tackles, and a forced fumble.
39 | Levi Wallace | CB
The starter opposite of Tre'Davious White, Wallace has started all eight games for the Bills in 2019, and all 15 games of his career in Buffalo. So far in 2019, he has 39 tackles, and six pass breakups.
42 | Patrick DiMarco | FB
One of the leaders in the locker room, DiMarco makes his mark on special teams, and by blocking on offense. He has appeared in all eight games for Buffalo in 2019, carrying the ball twice to go along with his four receptions.
46 | Jaquan Johnson | S
The rookie safety has appeared in five games in 2019, primarily serving as a versatile special teams player.
49 | Tremaine Edmunds | LB
A first-time captain, Edmunds is the anchor of the Bills defense. Through eight games, he leads the team with 61 tackles, and is second on the team with 6 tackles for loss.
51 | Julian Stanford | LB
He has appeared in all eight games so far, serving as a valuable special teams player. He recovered a fumble in the game against the Eagles.
52 | Corey Thompson | LB
Another solid special teams player, Thompson also serves as a great depth option at linebacker. He has appeared in four games so far in 2019.
55 | Jerry Hughes | DE
Hughes has played in all eight games this season, totaling 18 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 3 pass breakups, 4 tackles for loss, and a fumble recovery. He has 49.5 career sacks.
57 | Lorenzo Alexander | LB
A captain again in 2019, Alexander is one of the more versatile players on the roster. He moves around the field on defense in addition to being a great special teams player as well. So far in 2019, he has 31 tackles, 2 sacks, 7 pass deflections, and a forced fumble. His 4 tackles on special teams are second on the team.
58 | Matt Milano | LB
Despite missing one game due to injury, Milano ranks third on the team with 50 tackles in his seven starts. In addition to being terrific in pass coverage, he also has 5 tackles for loss, 3 quarterback hits, and a fumble recovery in 2019.
60 | Mitch Morse | C
The starting center on the O-Line, Morse has started all eight games since signing as a free agent in the offseason.
61 | Spencer Long | OL
A valuable rotational lineman, Long has the ability to play both center and guard for the Bills. He has been active for six games this season.
65 | Ike Boettger | OL
The young lineman has appeared in one game so far in 2019.
67 | Quinton Spain | OG
Spain has started all eight games in 2019 at left guard after signing as a free agent in the offseason.
69 | Reid Ferguson | LS
A captain on special teams, Ferguson has started all eight games for the Bills in 2019.
70 | Cody Ford | T
The second-round rookie has played in all eight games in 2019, starting seven of them.
71 | Ryan Bates | OL
A versatile lineman, rookie Ryan Bates has been active for three games so far in 2019. He has the ability to play all three positions on the offensive line if needed.
73 | Dion Dawkins | LT
A first-time captain in 2019, Dion Dawkins has started all eight games at left tackle so far this season.
76 | Jon Feliciano | OL
A free agent addition, Feliciano has started all eight games during the season at RG, and has filled in at center as needed. His versatility is a big asset.
77 | Ty Nsekhe | OT
Nsekhe has played in seven games this season, starting one. He is a great rotational piece at tackle.
81 | Tyler Kroft | TE
Kroft has played in three games after battling injuries early in the year, grabbing two passes for 32 yards in his first season in Buffalo.
82 | Duke Williams | WR
After being promoted from the practice squad, Williams has played in three games, catching 6 passes for 58 yards and a touchdown.
85 | Lee Smith | TE
Primarily used as a blocker, Smith has appeared in all eight games for the Bills in 2019. He has 4 catches for 31 yards and a touchdown.
88 | Dawson Knox | TE
The rookie tight end is third on the team in catches, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns, with 14, 192, and 1, respectively.
89 | Tommy Sweeney | TE
Sweeney is another rookie tight end that has seen action in 2019, catching 3 passes for 38 yards in five games.
90 | Shaq Lawson | DE
Lawson has been a big part of the defense in 2019, playing in all eight games and totaling 14 tackles, 2 sacks, 6 QB hits, and a pass deflection.
91 | Ed Oliver | DT
The first-round pick in 2019 has played in all eight games, starting seven. He has 20 tackles, 1 sack, and 4 QB hits while drawing consistent double teams.
92 | Darryl Johnson | DE
Another rookie that has seen a ton of playing time for the Bills, Johnson has played in all eight games on defense and special teams. The seventh-round pick has 7 tackles, 1 sack, and 2 QB hits so far this season.
93 | Trent Murphy | DE
Murphy has started all eight games for the Bills in 2019, and has 13 tackles, 1 sack, 4 tackles for loss, 3 pass deflections, an interception and a fumble recovery.
94 | Corey Liuget | DT
Liuget was signed to the roster as a free agent before Week 10. He entered the NFL in 2011 as a first-round pick.
96 | Vincent Taylor | DT
Promoted from the practice squad before the Washington game, Taylor had 3 tackles and a tackle for loss against the Redskins.
97 | Jordan Phillips | DT
Phillips has been a monster on the Buffalo defense in 2019. Through eight games, he leads the Bills and all NFL defensive tackles with 6 sacks, and has added 16 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 8 QB hits, and a forced fumble.
98 | Star Lotulelei | DT
Star is an important part of Buffalo's run defense, and has started all eight games in 2019.
