The Buffalo Bills are 2.5-point underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens in M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday Night Football. Thie game starts at 8:20 pm and will air on NBC.
Here's a list of additional notes for this week's game
- Bills have won eight consecutive regular season game - the longest active win streak in the NFL
- Lamar Jackson is 16-5 in primetime games
- Josh Allen is 17-6 in primetime games
- Bills are 2-2 against the Ravens since 2017
- Bills are 6-1 on Sunday Night Football with Sean McDermott and Josh Allen
Bills storyline to watch: The Bills will be without middle linebacker Terrel Bernard (pectoral) and nickel corner Taron Johnson (forearm) for a second straight game, facing a tough test against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, who is coming off 151 rushing yards and two touchdowns versus the Cowboys. The Bills' offense has assisted the defense in the past two games by getting out to leads early, which would help Buffalo against this rushing attack. There is also a history of success for this defense against Jackson, who has been limited to 144.5 passing yards per game in two starts against Buffalo. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Ravens storyline to watch: The Ravens and the NFL's worst pass defense look to slow down Josh Allen, whose 92.6 QBR is the highest through three games by any player since the ESPN began tracking it in 2006. Baltimore has surprisingly struggled against the pass, allowing 875 yards through the air -- including a league-worst 363 yards passing in the fourth quarter. It's been a rough start for first-year defensive coordinator Zach Orr. If the Ravens allow 25 or more points for the fourth straight game, it will tie the longest streak in franchise history. -- Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: Allen is tied with Steve Young for the most games (four) with multiple rushing and passing touchdowns. Jackson holds the record for the most games with 100 rushing yards and two passing touchdowns (five) in NFL history.
Bold prediction: Bills cornerback Christian Benford will allow under 30 passing yards. Benford is off to a great start to the year, allowing just 0.4 yards per coverage snap -- the second least by an outside corner with at least 50 coverage snaps -- along with a pick. He'll present an issue for Zay Flowers and the Ravens receivers. -- Walder
Fantasy X factor: Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir. He has been a surprise this season. Instead of rookie Keon Coleman or veteran Curtis Samuel, Shakir has emerged as the Bills' top receiver. He leads Buffalo in targets (14), catches (14), yards (168) and touchdowns (2). Up next, he faces a Ravens secondary that has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers in what should be a high-scoring game. -- Moody
Betting nugget: Ravens overs are 3-0 this season. Unders are 13-4 in Bills road games since 2022.
Kahler's pick: Bills 30, Ravens 28
Moody's pick: Ravens 31, Bills 28
Walder's pick: Bills 27, Ravens 20
FPI prediction: BUF, 56.7% (by an average of 2.3 points)
The Chiefs might also be 3-0 and the two-time defending champions, but I would project the Bills as a favorite over the Chiefs if they played a hypothetical game on a neutral field this weekend. Buffalo's complete dominance of Miami and Jacksonville in consecutive games is a strong signal that this offense is firing on all cylinders. Compare that to Kansas City, which has played a tougher schedule but legitimately played three coin-flip games that were decided on the final play.
Both of Buffalo's offensive tackles rank in the top 10 in pass block win rate. The offense is more run-heavy than it's been in the past, which is decreasing the volume for and burden on Josh Allen. Allen has been hyper-efficient as a runner, and his lowered pass volume has helped him cut down on the mistakes that have plagued his game in the past. Buffalo's pass rush looks improved, with Von Miller finding the fountain of youth and Greg Rousseau flashing consistently.
I write all of this because the market might still be catching up to just how good Buffalo is. I know this sounds reactionary since I was against Buffalo in Week 3. The Ravens' offensive line showed real improvement in Week 3, but that had more to do with Dallas's porous run defense. The Baltimore defense still has major questions for me, and this game should be lined as a toss-up.
Verdict: Bet Bills +2.5 (-110).
Why Dan picked the Ravens: The last time the Ravens played at home, they blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to the Raiders, a team that was shellacked by the once-lowly Panthers the next week. Baltimore nearly coughed up an even bigger fourth-quarter lead in Week 3 against the Cowboys. For a squad that tends to run the ball down the opposition's throat, Lamar Jackson and Co. are having a lot of trouble closing out games. It would help if Justin Tucker was making hs kicks. Anyhow, maybe the script starts to flip on Sunday night. The Bills have been dominant the last two weeks, but the only team that gave them any trouble this season was the Cardinals, who held a 17-3 lead late in the second quarter of what turned into a 34-28 loss at Buffalo in the opener. Jackson can put the Bills' defense on its heels like Kyler Murray did in Week 1, and perhaps a Ravens team learning from its mistakes will finish the job at home this time.
The Ravens are more desperate, or at least they should be.
Florio: Ravens, 23-20.
Simms: Ravens, 28-24.
This is a big game for AFC superiority. The Bills are playing as well as anybody at 3-0, while the Ravens are coming off an impressive road victory over Dallas. The Ravens ran it right at the Cowboys and they will do the same in this one. Josh Allen has been outstanding, but how much will he have the football if Derrick Henry is going well? I think the Ravens run to victory.
Pick: Ravens 24, Bills 21
The Bills have been having fun running the ball to support Josh Allen in their diverse and balanced offense. The Ravens can be relentless running at a high level with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and that's how to attack Buffalo's defense. Allen will run into some turnover trouble against Baltimore's back-end looks after the Ravens apply some good inside pressure on him.
Pick: Ravens win 23-20 and cover the spread.
This Sunday Night Football contest features two of the best three quarterbacks in the NFL, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Both players had monster Week 3 performances and will look to dominate under the bright lights. Allen might be the league MVP, as he has yet to turn the ball over. The Buffalo Bills have scored 30 or more points in each of three games.
The good news for the Baltimore Ravens is that their offense looked much better in Week 3, and Derrick Henry looked fresh. They'll need the offense to play well to keep up with the Bills.
However, Baltimore still has major issues with its defense, and its passing game still doesn't look quite right. Expect this to be a battle, but the Bills will ultimately come out on top and improve to 4-0.
Score Prediction: Bills 26, Ravens 23
