The Buffalo Bills are 6.5-point favorites heading into Sunday's Kickoff Weekend matchup against the Arizona Cardinals at Highmark Stadium. The game will air at 1:00 pm on CBS.
Here's a list of additional notes for Sunday's season opener ...
- The Bills are undefeated against the Cardinals (3-0) in Orchard Park since the franchise moved to Arizona in 1988
- Sean McDermott's Bills teams are 5-2 in home openers
- Josh Allen's Bills are 18-3 in their last 21 regular season home games
- Allen is 21-6 against NFC opponents in his career
- The Bills are 16-0 since 2020 when Allen does not have a giveaway
Cardinals storyline to watch: Sunday will be the highly anticipated debut of Cardinals rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr., and there'll be plenty to watch for. How will he be used by Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing and QB Kyler Murray? How will the Bills play him? How will he handle his first NFL game? Those around him have raved about his maturity and how his NFL learning curve has been shortened because of that maturity and his family background. -- Josh Weinfuss
Bills storyline to watch: How exactly this Bills offense looks in Week 1 will be intriguing to see. The wide receiver room underwent major change this offseason, and Joe Brady is taking over the offensive coordinator role full-time. The first-team offense, now healthy, saw limited playing time in the preseason, with eight snaps for QB Josh Allen. This will be the first significant game action the group will get. It will be a good opportunity for Allen and the offense to start the year at home against a Cardinals defense that allowed the second-most points per game in 2023 (26.8). -- Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Bills lost 45% of receiving yards and 52% of receiving touchdowns from last season with the departure of Stefon Diggs (Houston) and Gabe Davis (Jacksonville).
Bold prediction: Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir will record seven or more receptions. Rookie Keon Coleman might one day turn into this team's No. 1 receiver, but Shakir is likely the most reliable wideout right now, especially after posting a strong 2.1 yards per route run last season. I'm confident he'll do damage against a weak Cardinals defense. -- Walder
Fantasy X factor: Bills running back James Cook. The Cardinals had the league's worst run defense last season, ranking 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game (143.2). With minimal offseason additions, Arizona's defensive front remains vulnerable, setting the stage for Cook to have a standout performance. He averaged 19.6 touches and 16.4 fantasy points per game during Weeks 11-18 last season. See Week 1 rankings. -- Moody
Betting nugget: Murray is 12-7-1 ATS in his career when getting at least four points, including 10-4-1 ATS on the road. Read more.
Kahler's pick: Cardinals 21, Bills 20
Moody's pick: Bills 31, Cardinals 24
Walder's pick: Bills 33, Cardinals 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 67.7% (by an average of 7.3 points)
The Cardinals were a feisty team last season and will be even better in 2024. But this is a tough way to open, on the road against a Super Bowl contender. The Bills have a lot of new faces, but Josh Allen will still be Josh Allen. Even so, I think Arizona will keep this close. Bills take a tight one.
Pick: Bills 27, Cardinals 24
The Bills' new-look offense around Josh Allen already kicked in well last season under Joe Brady and will continue to find more diversity and versatility to make it difficult to defend. The Cardinals won't slow it down much, from Allen's running to more intermediate passing. Kyler Murray will try to use rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. and others to answer well on the road, but the Bills take care of business with the front seven pressure and coverage.
Pick: Bills win 31-20 and cover the spread.
Only a handful of teams are 6-point favorites or more heading into Week 1, including the Buffalo Bills. However, with the new-look Arizona Cardinals coming to town, this is one of the tougher matchups to predict.
Kyler Murray can win a game single-handedly, and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. makes them even more dangerous on offense. Look for a tough battle in Buffalo, but for Josh Allen and the Bills to ultimately prevail.
Prediction: Bills 27, Cardinals 23
Allen lost 241 of his targets from last season with the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, but he still has Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. Yes, Shakir. Among receivers targeted between 40 and 74 times last season (45), Shakir was first in 0.98 EPA per target and sixth in 1.3 EPA per reception (sixth). And the Cardinals are very young in the secondary.
Arizona won three out of eight games after Kyler Murray returned last season, and its best chance to stay close here is to lean on a running game that ranked fourth in yards and second in yards per attempt last season. The Cardinals need to keep Allen off the field and minimize what they ask Murray to do. Murray is now in Year 6 and still has trouble seeing over his linemen in the middle of the field. His average of 5.7 yards per attempt on passes between the hashes was the worst in the NFL, according to TruMedia, and his overall efficiency was just 6.7 yards per attempt. First-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr. might make his life easier, but maybe not in Week 1 — with an early start on the East Coast.
The pick: Bills
Chris smells an upset. He needs to get his nose checked.
Florio: Bills, 30-17.
Simms: Cardinals, 24-23.
The Arizona Cardinals will travel across the country to face the Buffalo Bills in a contest that draws intrigue with new beginnings for the offenses.
We'll see how Bills quarterback Josh Allen performs without Stefon Diggs for the first time since the 2020 season. Rookie sensation Marvin Harrison Jr. will touch the field in game action for the first time after sitting out with the Cardinals starters during the preseason.
With so much unknown, specifically on offense, half of our crew went with the Cardinals to cover a touchdown spread. O'Donnell has learned from past mistakes, and he won't let Kyler Murray get one over on him this early in the season.
"It pains me greatly to be making this pick, but it simply boils down to the fact that I'm not ready to be burned," O'Donnell remarked. "I hope the Bills prove me wrong and give me a reason to back them the rest of the season the way I usually do.
"But I've been burned by Kyler Murray too many times, and I don't know what to expect from Josh Allen's offense right out of the gate. So, the Bills should win, but it may not be pretty, and I'll take the points for that exact reason."
Predictions
Davenport: Cardinals
Gagnon: Bills
Hanford: Bills
Knox: Bills
Michelino: Cardinals
Moton: Cardinals
O'Donnell: Cardinals
Sobleski: Bills
ATS Consensus: None
Score Prediction: Bills 25, Cardinals 21
Why Ali picked the Bills: Other than maybe Chicago's, no offense intrigues me more than the one in the desert. We finally get to see Kyler Murray, even further removed from his 2022 ACL injury, take Maserati Marv out for a spin. The fourth overall pick's presence in the starting 11 should lead to more favorable matchups for Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, and wider running lanes for James Conner. Tough early task for a Buffalo team with two new starters at safety and without do-it-all defender Matt Milano. While Buffalo's front is capable of carrying some of the load in the star linebacker's absence -- and will likely get the better of Arizona's O-line over the course of the afternoon -- Murray's escapability should put enough stress on Sean McDermott's retooled secondary to create chunk-play opportunities. I can't quite commit to the Cardinals in this one, though. For as high as I am on the team's offensive potential, I'm equally as concerned about its defense, which has several new pieces but few immediate difference-makers. Sure, the Bills' offense also looks vastly different than it did a year ago. But Josh Allen is still QB1, and he's more than good enough -- especially at home -- to compensate for the team's potential shortcomings and growing pains.
