The Bills are 9.5-point favorites this week when they host the Tennessee Titans at 1 pm in Highmark Stadium. This week's game will air on CBS.
Here are some notes heading into Sunday's game:
- Bills are 16-3 at home since 2022 - the NFL's best record in that span
- Josh Allen will make his 100th career start
- Bills have won their last two games at home against Tennessee
- The Titans are 4-10 with Will Levis as their starting quarterback
Why Brooke picked the Bills: Buffalo is first in the AFC East, and Josh Allen is enjoying one of the best campaigns of his career. So good on Brandon Beane for not being content and trading for Amari Cooper before the deadline. There was uncertainty around the Bills' WR corps all offseason, and after ranking 31st in pass attempts and 25th in pass yards through six weeks, Buffalo did something about it. The trade feels like a win for the Bills and the veteran wideout. Limited in Cleveland by poor quarterback play, Cooper provides much-needed experience and big-play ability for Allen. What will Cooper's usage look like after being in Buffalo less than a week before suiting up? That is yet to be seen, but I'd like to think Joe Brady will get him involved in an attempt to keep Tennessee's top-ranked total and passing defense off balance. It will be a treat when those two units are on the field. Unfortunately, I feel the opposite about Tennessee's offense vs. Buffalo's defense. Will Levis is a frustrating watch, often doing just enough to keep it close before imploding late with an errant mistake. He leads all players with seven INTs and 10 giveaways this season. That's not going to cut it against Sean McDermott's opportunistic unit, which has forced a whopping 40 takeaways since the start of the 2023 season. Even if Levis takes a step forward and Tennessee actually does get Calvin Ridley more involved, this Titans offense (and team, as a whole) feels awfully overmatched.
The Bills are playing on a short week after beating the Jets. The Titans are coming off a bad loss to the Colts at home. Their offense has been lifeless for much of the season, while the Bills can roll up points. But I think the Tennessee defense will keep the Titans in this one. It's closer than expected.
Pick: Bills 23, Titans 17
The Buffalo Bills didn't get complacent after their Week 6 Monday Night Football win over the New York Jets. On Tuesday, they acquired Amari Cooper from the Cleveland Browns.
Though large spreads may scare bettors off, the Bills face a Tennessee Titans squad that's averaging only 19.2 points per game. The Titans are tied for third in giveaways, and they turned the ball over at least once in each of their games. The Bills will have a chance to capitalize on extra possessions.
O'Donnell isn't afraid of the large spread considering how poorly the Titans have played and their ball-security issues through six weeks.
"We're at that point in the season when big spreads aren't nearly as frightening. The season's bonkers start, which saw touchdown-plus favorites not just fail to cover but lose outright, is fading away. The Bills haven't looked great in their last three games—they went 1-2 and averaged only 17.6 points per game away from home—but they still lead the AFC in point differential and are very much a legitimate contender.
"Josh Allen still hasn't thrown an interception. Ray Davis looks the part of the perfect Bills running back if James Cook isn't completely healthy. And now the mistake-prone, Will Levis-led Titans are in town. Two teams at the opposite end of the turnover spectrum, with the Bills back in Buffalo for the first time in nearly a month, I'll lay double digits on the better team in this game."
Predictions
Davenport: Bills
Gagnon: Bills
Hanford: Bills
Knox: Titans
Michelino: Bills
Moton: Bills
O'Donnell: Bills
Sobleski: Bills
ATS Consensus: Bills -8.5
Score Prediction: Bills 24, Titans 14
Titans storyline to watch: The Titans' passing game has gotten off to a terrible start, including a 95-yard passing performance by QB Will Levis last week. Through five games, Tennessee's offense is averaging 135 passing yards per game, 31st in the league. Offensive coordinator Nick Holz said the unit watched every passing play to figure out what's going on. Look for the Titans to get into the passing game early against the Bills, with Levis especially looking to get the ball to receiver Calvin Ridley. -- Turron Davenport
Bills storyline to watch: The Bills made a big move this week to improve the wide receiver group by adding Amari Cooper. How much of a role he can have this week in such limited time with the team is to be seen, but the challenge, no matter how much Cooper plays against the Titans, is putting together drives. Tennessee's defense leads the NFL with 248.8 yards allowed per game, while the Bills have averaged 290.3 yards per game in the past three games and not scored more than 23 points. Changing that trend will be key. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: The Titans lead the NFL in total defense (248.8 yards per game), which is their third-fewest yards allowed per game in the first five games since 1976.
Bold prediction: Cooper will record a 40-plus-yard reception in his Bills debut. The Browns successfully used Cooper as more of a deep threat last year. Buffalo will be glad to have another deep option for QB Josh Allen. -- Walder
Fantasy X factor: Titans RB Tony Pollard. He has scored 15 or more fantasy points in four out of five games. He has been one of the few consistent fantasy options for the Titans and is poised for a massive workload as Tyjae Spears deals with a hamstring injury. Pollard faces a Bills defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. -- Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games laying at least a touchdown.
Kahler's pick: Bills 27, Titans 21
Moody's pick: Bills 27, Titans 10
Walder's pick: Bills 27, Titans 13
FPI prediction: BUF, 71.4% (by an average of 8.6 points)
The Bills' defense has run into some tough spots of late, and Josh Allen has likewise seen some tough pass defenses. This is a get-well game at home, as Tennessee struggles through the air with Will Levis and can be pushed into abandoning the run at some point. The Titans' defense has plenty of holes for OC Joe Brady to exploit as the Bills lean more on the rushing attack.
Pick: Bills win 33-13 and cover the spread.
The Jets weren't the only team to acquire a Pro Bowl receiver this week. The Buffalo Bills added Amari Cooper in exchange for a mid-round pick, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him on the field this week. ... Cooper's ability to separate should help this offense.
This could be a tough matchup for Buffalo because the Titans do have a solid defense that can stop the run and force turnovers. The issue for the Tennessee Titans is that their passing game has been non-existent this season, and time is running out for Will Levis.
If he can't get things going this week, look for the Titans to consider putting Mason Rudolph in the lineup to jumpstart the offense. Tennessee should keep this game competitive, but the Bills will ultimately win in Buffalo.
Score Prediction: Bills 26, Titans 17
So help me God, Tennessee Titans. I wish I knew how to quit you.
I've bet on Tennessee more than I should have this season, but this Week 7 spread is just too big. The Titans travel to Orchard Park to face the Buffalo Bills, who are playing on a short week after a fugly win over the Jets on Monday night.
The Titans are getting as many as nine points due to their 1-4 SU and ATS mark, but I don't see Tennessee as one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Sure, Will Levis and this offense have the cohesiveness of Shaq and Kobe circa 2003, but Dennard Wilson's defense is for real. Tennessee is beloved by the advanced metrics, sitting No. 10 in Defensive DVOA, No. 6 in EPA allowed per play, and No. 1 in success rate allowed per snap.
We've seen just how "good" the Bills offense truly is over the past three games, with Buffalo putting up scores of 23, 20, and 13 versus quality defenses after scoring 112 total points against soft stop units in the first three weeks.
The Titans offense hasn't been able to hold its [stuff] together in the second half, despite only trailing at the break once in the first five games and leading or being tied to start the fourth quarter in four of five outings.
Tennessee couldn't make good on short spreads in those contests but has a big buffer in Buffalo this Sunday.
My pick: Tennessee Titans +9.5
