The Bills get back home after losing at Tampa last week, but they showed a lot in coming back from 24-3 down to send that game to overtime. Josh Allen will be facing a good defense here, but the Carolina offense is limited. The Bills will get back on track at home with a dominant performance.
Pick: Bills 31, Panthers 16
What to watch for: The Bills will be going up against a Panthers defense that leads the league in passing yards allowed per game (177.7) and has sacked opposing quarterbacks on 7.5% of dropbacks (fourth). Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen is dealing with a foot injury, and while he is trending toward playing, it will be worth keeping an eye on whether he is at all limited. The Bills' offensive line has been inconsistent this season, allowing sacks on 13.9% of dropbacks (30th), and the Panthers' best chance to upset might come from making Allen uncomfortable and forcing turnovers. -- Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: The Bills will force Carolina quarterbacks Cam Newton and P.J. Walker into a combined five turnovers, including one returned for a touchdown. Of course, this doesn't seem so bold because Newton has four turnovers in the past two games and Walker has thrown an interception in each of his past three games. But five is a pretty tall order, even for a defense ranked third in the NFL in takeaways with 26. -- David Newton
Stat to know: The Bills have a minus-five turnover margin -- seventh worst in the NFL -- in their past six games (2-4). They had a plus-13 margin in their first seven games (5-2), which led the NFL.
Newton's pick: Bills 35, Panthers 17
Getzenberg's pick: Bills 31, Panthers 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 78.4% (by an average of 10.5 points)
MDS's take: The Bills either win blowouts or lose close games. This week they'll win a blowout.
MDS's pick: Bills 30, Panthers 10.
Florio's take: A much-needed get-right game is coming for the Bills. The Panthers are in full get-wrong mode.
Florio's pick: Bills 27, Panthers 13.
A slow start doomed them against the Buccaneers last week, but the Bills (7-6) could spot the Panthers (5-8) a touchdown and Carolina would likely still lose this one. No matter their quarterback — P.J. Walker and Cam Newton have shared snaps since Sam Darnold went down with an injury — the Panthers' offense has underwhelmed, averaging only 19.8 points per game. Newton has completed only 58.7 percent of his passes since returning as the starter (yuck).
Josh Allen sprained his left foot and is listed as day-to-day, but even if he doesn't play Sunday, the Bills' offense is more trustworthy, especially at home in near-freezing temperatures.
Pick: Bills -10.5
The Bills need this one to break out of a funk where they have lost four of their last six games. The Panthers offer a chance for a get-right game knowing they have a -8 turnover ratio and struggle to run the ball. Josh Allen gets Buffalo back on track with a monster game.
Pick: Bills 30, Panthers 22
