The Buffalo Bills are 5.5-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football in Highmark Stadium. The game starts at 7:30 pm and will air on ESPN (WIVB in Buffalo).
Here's a list of additional notes for Monday Night's matchup ...
- Bills have won their last three meetings against the Jaguars in Orchard Park
- Bills have won seven consecutive regular season games - the longest active win streak in the NFL
- Josh Allen is 16-6 in primetime games
- Bills have lost their last two MNF games
- Bills have lost their last two games against Jacksonville
- Sean McDermott is 16-8 on Monday Night Football (6-3 at home)
- Jaguars are 0-7 in Trevor Lawrence's last seven starts
The Bills are playing with a lot of rest, while the 0-2 Jaguars are coming off two close losses. That's a big edge for the Bills, as is a home Monday night game. But the biggest edge is their defense against the Jacksonville offense, which is struggling. The Bills keep rolling.
Pick: Bills 28, Jaguars 17
This is the perfect opportunity to support the Jaguars immediately after many have abandoned them following a rough 0-2 start. The Jaguars were just one fumble by Travis Etienne Jr. against the Dolphins and an illegal shift penalty against the Browns away from potentially being 2-0. Despite losing to Cleveland at home in Week 2, Jacksonville outperformed the Browns in total yards, average yards per play, and red zone trips.
Jacksonville continues to have one of the best success rates on early downs in the league. Buffalo may be receiving a lot of attention in the media and in the market after its impressive win against Miami, but it still heavily relies on running on early downs and may struggle to generate big plays against strong defenses.
Verdict: Bet Jaguars +4.5 (-105).
Why Dan picked the Bills: Jacksonville has the talent to go into Buffalo and surprise the Bills, but the Jaguars are way too sloppy for me to call that shot. They've lost Trevor Lawrence's last seven starts, with the QB turning the ball over 10 times during the losing streak (tied for most in the NFL since Week 13 of last season). He's not getting great help from his supporting cast, either. The Jaguars pass catchers have a 15.2 percent drop rate this season (highest in the league, per PFF). Buffalo plays a lot of zone coverage (80.2% of plays), which Lawrence has been better against compared with man coverage, but I'm not banking on that to be enough to tip the scales in favor of a team that can't seem to get out of its own way. Meanwhile, the Bills look like one of the best teams in the league so far. In fact, they have the best regular-season record in the league (8-1) since Joe Brady was promoted to offensive coordinator in Week 11 of last year. These two squads seem to be operating on tracks heading in opposite directions, and while the Jaguars are desperate, I don't see things changing on Monday night.
Between these teams, a couple of patterns haven't changed going back to last year.
The Buffalo Bills are still the club to beat in the AFC East. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars continue to struggle with offensive inefficiencies.
Currently atop the AFC East with a top-eight scoring offense and defense, Buffalo will host a Jacksonville squad averaging 15 points per game. The Jaguars are 28th in third-down conversion rate. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is completing 51 percent of his passes.
Our NFL experts don't see how the Jaguars will score enough points to keep this matchup close on the road. O'Donnell doesn't see Jacksonville snapping out of its stupor Monday night.
"So, we're all on the Bills. Usually a recipe for disaster. The Jags aren't going to lose forever, but getting right in Buffalo on MNF probably isn't the place to start. Jacksonville is averaging 15 points per game to start the year and has won only one game dating back to the start of last December (1-7).
"The league has proved to us early this season that big spreads matter little. In fact, home favorites are 10-13-1 so far this season. However, the Bills are coming off a long week and should be rested–Josh Allen in particular after throwing only 19 passes, carrying the ball only twice and taking no sacks on TNF. Prime time usually tightens up games that shouldn't be that close, but this is how little we think of the Jags right now."
Predictions
Davenport: Bills
Gagnon: Bills
Hanford: Bills
Knox: Bills
Michelino: Bills
Moton: Bills
O'Donnell: Bills
Sobleski: Bills
ATS Consensus: Bills -5.5
Score Prediction: Bills 30, Jaguars 21
The Bills have looked fantastic in two games with Josh Allen in total control of a more efficient, run-heavy offense and diverse passing game under Joe Brady. Their defensive weakness lies vs. the run and the middle of the field in coverage, but with the way Trevor Lawrence is looking too much downfield, they can put good pressure on him on the road. Meanwhile, Allen will get to flex his deep arm more often vs. an overwhelmed secondary.
Pick: Bills win 24-17 and cover the spread.
It's hard to believe, but the Jacksonville Jaguars have now lost their last seven games with Trevor Lawrence under center. While it's certainly not all his fault, something about this team just feels off. They clearly have talent on both sides of the ball, but it has yet to come together.
But this feels like a good spot for Jacksonville despite the Buffalo Bills coming off 11 days of rest. The Jaguars need this game to save their season, and they do have the weapons on offense to challenge the Bills.
Buffalo is getting five points at home, and that's probably the right number, but expect this to be a field goal game that comes down to the last possession. Let's take the upset here with the expectation that Doug Pedersen throws out the kitchen sink to get a win.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 23, Bills 20
Josh Hines-Allen needs to get after Josh Allen. Even if he does, the Bills are too much to handle.
Florio: Bills, 27-17.
Simms: Bills, 26-23.
The Bills are home as part of a Monday Night Football doubleheader. James Cook has been a great piece in the offense with 198 total yards and three TDs. Trevor Lawrence has passed for just one TD pass through two deflating one-score losses. Jacksonville beat Buffalo 25-20 last season, and they are playing with a sense of desperation here. Josh Allen, however, will deliver in the clutch in a game that will play out a little higher than the over.
Pick: Bills 30, Jaguars 27
