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Game Predictions

Game Predictions | Bills at Jets | Monday Night Football | Week 6

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills, Regular Season, September 11, 2023 at Metlife Stadium.
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills, Regular Season, September 11, 2023 at Metlife Stadium.

The Buffalo Bills are 2.5-point favorites on the road against the New York Jets on Monday Night Football this week. The game will be played at MetLife Stadium at 8:15 pm and will air on ESPN.

Here are some additional notes for Monday's AFC East clash:

  • The home team has won each of the last five games between the two teams
  • Bills are 10-2 in non-Sunday games since 2022 - second-best record in NFL (Dallas is 9-0)
  • Bills are 20-5 against AFC East rivals since 2020 - tied with the Chiefs for the best record against divisional opponents in that span
  • Josh Allen is 17-7 in primetime games
  • Josh Allen is 6-1 after losing consecutive games per Action Network

The Bills are out on the road for a third straight week, while the Jets are looking to get a bounce from the firing of coach Robert Saleh. It will be interesting to see how this team responds. Aaron Rodgers clearly was not happy with the direction of the team, but it's on him to change that. Josh Allen has struggled against the Jets, so look for a low-scoring game with the Bills finding a way with a late score.

Pick: Bills 20, Jets 17

The Jets are going to play better football at some point this season, and it's not because they fired Saleh. This week's events can either spark the Jets or sink them. I'm betting on the former.

We know the Jets are capable of more than what they've shown through five weeks, and now they get the rival Bills coming off two straight losses. Josh Allen completed 9 of 30 passes in the loss to the Texans last week -- the lowest completion percentage (30%) by any quarterback in a game with 30 attempts in 32 years. He was 0 for 13 on throws of 15-plus air yards. It was the worst 0-fer on such throws by any quarterback in a game since air yards were first tracked in 2006. I don't think Allen is a bad quarterback, but I'm questioning everything about the Bills offense that is not James Cook.

Give me the Jets as an underdog, because Rodgers simply doesn't lose games as a home underdog. He's 6-1-1 as a home dog in his career, throwing 14 touchdowns compared to zero interceptions.

The pick: Jets +2.5

Projected score: Jets 21-17

The Bills rank in the top 10 in EPA per game on both offense and defense, but their ability to shoot themselves in the foot is a concern.

The Jets game in London was a story of two halves. New York struggled mightily out the gate but roared back in the second half to nearly snatch an improbable victory. Defensively, they're still a solid unit, ranking sixth in EPA per game, but their offense has been woeful (24th). The hope is that Aaron Rodgers will only improve, but the injury issues are starting to mount, and he looks like a shell of his former self.

Buffalo is the better team here, and nearly every metric tells you that. Yes, the Jets are slightly better on defense, but the difference is relatively small. I expect this to be a low-scoring game next Monday in New Jersey, so taking the under is the way I am leaning early on.

Prediction: Bills 17, Jets 13

The Jets need this kind of get-well home offensive matchup against a bad running back defense. The Bills are giving up 4.6 yards per carry as part of allowing 144 rushing yards per game. They also allow a league-worst 62.5 receiving yards per game to the position. That should get Breece Hall and Braelon Allen back on track to ease the pressure on Aaron Rodgers. The Jets fire first in this tough battle for first place in what's looking like a lesser-than-expected AFC East.

Pick: Jets win 23-20.

Well, this game just got a whole lot more interesting after the New York Jets surprisingly fired Robert Salah on Tuesday. Jeff Ulbrich will be the interim coach, but we know who is really running the show in New York.

Will the Jets get the interim coach boost that so many teams get? Maybe, but they also play a really good opponent, the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo has now dropped back-to-back games, and opponents have figured out their offense. They depend on Khalil Shakir, who did not play in Week 5 due to injury. If he is out for this week, there is no one in the passing game that should scare the Jets.

However, can the Jets score 20 more points this week? And can Rodgers play better? We are taking the Jets here in an upset in a game that they have to win to save their season.

Score Prediction: Jets 20, Bills 17

On Monday, Gang Green will host a flailing Buffalo Bills squad that's lost back-to-back games.

When you consider both teams have been linked to disgruntled Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (via The Athletic), this AFC East matchup has all sorts of storylines, which sets the stage for a high-pressure prime-time battle between rivals for first place in the division.

O'Donnell is riding with the Bills in a crucial prime-time spot.

"Fired coach bump incoming, and this is juicy," O'Donnell said. "This is a great spot to take the points with the thought that the Jets could probably win this outright. These teams have split the last four meetings with the home team winning every time.

"Again, this is screaming Jets 'upset' in prime time. The Jets could look entirely different coming back stateside from a loss in London, inspired by a new coach and knowing the immense importance of a division game at home. And that's why I'm blocking out the noise and going the other way. The Jets are simply a circus I won't pay to see."

Predictions

Davenport: Jets

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Jets

Knox: Bills

Michelino: Jets

Moton: Bills

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Jets

ATS Consensus: None

Score Prediction: Bills 22, Jets 18

Why Gennaro picked the Jets: Why do teams change head coaches in the middle of a season? Specific reasons obviously vary, but the general hope is that a serious shock to the system provides an IMMEDIATE boost. Jets owner Woody Johnson plainly stated as much after firing Robert Saleh on Tuesday: "The change that we made today, that I made, I believe will bring new energy and positivity that will lead to more wins, starting now."

In the business of sports prognostication, this promptly cultivates discussion of "the dead coach bounce," a purported phenomenon that draws its macabre name from the dead cat bounce. But does that investing term actually apply to the gridiron? Do in-season coaching changes rally NFL teams? Well, I did some back-of-the-envelope research, narrowing the scope of my investigation to serve this particular blurb. My findings: When it comes to the game immediately following the firing, recent history says ... YES!

Over the past decade, we've seen 23 midseason head-coaching changes. The interim's record in his debut: 12-11! That's quite a mark when you remember that teams taking this drastic measure are significantly flawed. The most recent franchise to win the interim's first game? The 2023 Raiders, who responded to Josh McDaniels' firing with a 30-6 win over the Giants in Antonio Pierce's debut. Can Jeff Ulbrich follow suit in his first game as the Jets' head man? I'll play the trend!

Scroll to see the best photos from Wednesday's practice as the Buffalo Bills prepare to face the New York Jets.

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